Transmission patterns of smallpox: systematic review of natural outbreaks in Europe and North America since World War II

BACKGROUND: Because smallpox (variola major) may be used as a biological weapon, we reviewed outbreaks in post-World War II Europe and North America in order to understand smallpox transmission patterns. METHODS: A systematic review was used to identify papers from the National Library of Medicine, Embase, Biosis, Cochrane Library, Defense Technical Information Center, WorldCat, and reference lists of included publications. Two authors reviewed selected papers for smallpox outbreaks. RESULTS: 51 relevant outbreaks were identified from 1,389 publications. The median for the effective first generation reproduction rate (initial R) was 2 (range 0–38). The majority outbreaks were small (less than 5 cases) and contained within one generation. Outbreaks with few hospitalized patients had low initial R values (median of 1) and were prolonged if not initially recognized (median of 3 generations); outbreaks with mostly hospitalized patients had higher initial R values (median 12) and were shorter (median of 3 generations). Index cases with an atypical presentation of smallpox were less likely to have been diagnosed with smallpox; outbreaks in which the index case was not correctly diagnosed were larger (median of 27.5 cases) and longer (median of 3 generations) compared to outbreaks in which the index case was correctly diagnosed (median of 3 cases and 1 generation). CONCLUSION: Patterns of spread during Smallpox outbreaks varied with circumstances, but early detection and implementation of control measures is a most important influence on the magnitude of outbreaks. The majority of outbreaks studied in Europe and North America were controlled within a few generations if detected early

A Probability Sample for Monitoring the HIV-infected Population in Care in the U.S. and in Selected States

Epidemiologic and clinical changes in the HIV epidemic over time have presented a challenge to public health surveillance to monitor behavioral and clinical factors that affect disease progression and HIV transmission. The Medical Monitoring Project (MMP) is a supplemental surveillance project designed to provide representative, population-based data on clinical status, care, outcomes, and behaviors of HIV-infected persons receiving care at the national level. We describe a three-stage probability sampling method that provides both nationally and state-level representative estimates. In stage-I, 20 states, which included 6 separately funded cities/counties, were selected using probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling. PPS sampling was also used in stage-II to select facilities for participation in each of the 26 funded areas. In stage-III, patients were randomly selected from sampled facilities in a manner that maximized the possibility of having overall equal selection probabilities for every patient in the state or city/county. The sampling methods for MMP could be adapted to other research projects at national or sub-national levels to monitor populations of interest or evaluate outcomes and care for a range of specific diseases or conditions

Retrivability in The Danish National Hospital Registry of HIV and hepatitis B and C coinfection diagnoses of patients managed in HIV centers 1995–2004

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hospital-based discharge registries are used increasingly for longitudinal epidemiological studies of HIV. We examined completeness of registration of HIV infections and of chronic hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV) coinfections in the Danish National Hospital Registry (DNHR) covering all Danish hospitals.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Danish HIV Cohort Study (DHCS) encompasses all HIV-infected patients treated in Danish HIV clinics since 1 January 1995. All 2,033 Danish patients in DHCS diagnosed with HIV-1 during the 10-year period from 1 January 1995 to 31 December 2004 were included in the current analysis. We used the DHCS as a reference to examine the completeness of HIV and of HBV and HCV coinfections recorded in DNHR. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate hazard ratios of time to diagnosis of HIV in DNHR compared to DHCS.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 2,033 HIV patients in DHCS, a total of 2,006 (99%) were registered with HIV in DNHR. Of these, 1,888 (93%) were registered in DNHR within one year of their first positive HIV test. A CD4 < 200 cells/μl, a viral load >= 100,000 copies/ml and being diagnosed after 1 January 2000, were associated with earlier registration in DNHR, both in crude and adjusted analyses. Thirty (23%) HIV patients registered with chronic HBV (n = 129) in DHCS and 126 (48%) of HIV patients with HCV (n = 264) in DHCS were registered with these diagnoses in the DNHR. Further 17 and 8 patients were registered with HBV and HCV respectively in DNHR, but not in DHCS. The positive predictive values of being registered with HBV and HCV in DHCS were thereby estimated to 0.88 and 0.97 and in DNHR to 0.32 and 0.54.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The study demonstrates that secondary data from national hospital databases may be reliable for identification of patients diagnosed with HIV infection. However, the predictive value of co-morbidity data may be low.</p

Substituting abacavir for hyperlipidemia-associated protease inhibitors in HAART regimens improves fasting lipid profiles, maintains virologic suppression, and simplifies treatment

BACKGROUND: Hyperlipidemia secondary to protease inhibitors (PI) may abate by switching to anti-HIV medications without lipid effects. METHOD: An open-label, randomized pilot study compared changes in fasting lipids and HIV-1 RNA in 104 HIV-infected adults with PI-associated hyperlipidemia (fasting serum total cholesterol >200 mg/dL) who were randomized either to a regimen in which their PI was replaced by abacavir 300 mg twice daily (n = 52) or a regimen in which their PI was continued (n = 52) for 28 weeks. All patients had undetectable viral loads (HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/mL) at baseline and were naïve to abacavir and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. RESULTS: At baseline, the mean total cholesterol was 243 mg/dL, low density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol 149 mg/dL, high density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol 41 mg/dL, and triglycerides 310 mg/dL. Mean CD4+ cell counts were 551 and 531 cells/mm(3 )in the abacavir-switch and PI-continuation arms, respectively. At week 28, the abacavir-switch arm had significantly greater least square mean reduction from baseline in total cholesterol (-42 vs -10 mg/dL, P < 0.001), LDL-cholesterol (-14 vs +5 mg/dL, P = 0.016), and triglycerides (-134 vs -36 mg/dL, P = 0.019) than the PI-continuation arm, with no differences in HDL-cholesterol (+0.2 vs +1.3 mg/dL, P = 0.583). A higher proportion of patients in the abacavir-switch arm had decreases in protocol-defined total cholesterol and triglyceride toxicity grades, whereas a smaller proportion had increases in these toxicity grades. At week 28, an intent-to treat: missing = failure analysis showed that the abacavir-switch and PI-continuation arms did not differ significantly with respect to proportion of patients maintaining HIV-1 RNA <400 or <50 copies/mL or adjusted mean change from baseline in CD4+ cell count. Two possible abacavir-related hypersensitivity reactions were reported. No significant changes in glucose, insulin, insulin resistance, C-peptide, or waist-to-hip ratios were observed in either treatment arm, nor were differences in these parameters noted between treatments. CONCLUSION: In hyperlipidemic, antiretroviral-experienced patients with HIV-1 RNA levels <50 copies/mL and CD4+ cell counts >500 cells/mm(3), substituting abacavir for hyperlipidemia-associated PIs in combination antiretroviral regimens improves lipid profiles and maintains virologic suppression over a 28-week period, and it simplifies treatment

HIV Testing of At Risk Patients in a Large Integrated Health Care System

OBJECTIVE: Early identification of HIV infection is critical for patients to receive life-prolonging treatment and risk-reduction counseling. Understanding HIV screening practices and barriers to HIV testing is an important prelude to designing successful HIV screening programs. Our objective was to evaluate current practice patterns for identification of HIV. METHODS: We used a retrospective cohort analysis of 13,991 at-risk patients seen at 4 large Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health-care systems. We also reviewed 1,100 medical records of tested patients. We assessed HIV testing rates among at-risk patients, the rationale for HIV testing, and predictors of HIV testing and of HIV infection. RESULTS: Of the 13,991 patients at risk for HIV, only 36% had been HIV-tested. The prevalence of HIV ranged from 1% to 20% among tested patients at the 4 sites. Approximately 90% of patients who were tested had a documented reason for testing. CONCLUSION: One-half to two-thirds of patients at risk for HIV had not been tested within our selected VA sites. Among tested patients, the rationale for HIV testing was well documented. Further testing of at-risk patients could clearly benefit patients who have unidentified HIV infection by providing earlier access to life-prolonging therapy

HIV-1 and recombinant gp120 affect the survival and differentiation of human vessel wall-derived mesenchymal stem cells

BAckground:HIV infection elicits the onset of a progressive immunodeficiency and also damages several other organs and tissues such as the CNS, kidney, heart, blood vessels, adipose tissue and bone. In particular, HIV infection has been related to an increased incidence of cardiovascular diseases and derangement in the structure of blood vessels in the absence of classical risk factors. The recent characterization of multipotent mesenchymal cells in the vascular wall, involved in regulating cellular homeostasis, suggests that these cells may be considered a target of HIV pathogenesis. This paper investigated the interaction between HIV-1 and vascular wall resident human mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs). RESULTS: MSCs were challenged with classical R5 and X4 HIV-1 laboratory strains demonstrating that these strains are able to enter and integrate their retro-transcribed proviral DNA in the host cell genome. Subsequent experiments indicated that HIV-1 strains and recombinant gp120 elicited a reliable increase in apoptosis in sub-confluent MSCs. Since vascular wall MSCs are multipotent cells that may be differentiated towards several cell lineages, we challenged HIV-1 strains and gp120 on MSCs differentiated to adipogenesis and endotheliogenesis. Our experiments showed that the adipogenesis is increased especially by upregulated PPAR\u3b3 activity whereas the endothelial differentiation induced by VEGF treatment was impaired with a downregulation of endothelial markers such as vWF, Flt-1 and KDR expression. These viral effects in MSC survival and adipogenic or endothelial differentiation were tackled by CD4 blockade suggesting an important role of CD4/gp120 interaction in this context. CONCLUSIONS: The HIV-related derangement of MSC survival and differentiation may suggest a direct role of HIV infection and gp120 in impaired vessel homeostasis and in genesis of vessel damage observed in HIV-infected patients

Logistics of community smallpox control through contact tracing and ring vaccination: a stochastic network model

BACKGROUND: Previous smallpox ring vaccination models based on contact tracing over a network suggest that ring vaccination would be effective, but have not explicitly included response logistics and limited numbers of vaccinators. METHODS: We developed a continuous-time stochastic simulation of smallpox transmission, including network structure, post-exposure vaccination, vaccination of contacts of contacts, limited response capacity, heterogeneity in symptoms and infectiousness, vaccination prior to the discontinuation of routine vaccination, more rapid diagnosis due to public awareness, surveillance of asymptomatic contacts, and isolation of cases. RESULTS: We found that even in cases of very rapidly spreading smallpox, ring vaccination (when coupled with surveillance) is sufficient in most cases to eliminate smallpox quickly, assuming that 95% of household contacts are traced, 80% of workplace or social contacts are traced, and no casual contacts are traced, and that in most cases the ability to trace 1–5 individuals per day per index case is sufficient. If smallpox is assumed to be transmitted very quickly to contacts, it may at times escape containment by ring vaccination, but could be controlled in these circumstances by mass vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Small introductions of smallpox are likely to be easily contained by ring vaccination, provided contact tracing is feasible. Uncertainties in the nature of bioterrorist smallpox (infectiousness, vaccine efficacy) support continued planning for ring vaccination as well as mass vaccination. If initiated, ring vaccination should be conducted without delays in vaccination, should include contacts of contacts (whenever there is sufficient capacity) and should be accompanied by increased public awareness and surveillance

Resource Utilization and Cost-Effectiveness of Counselor- vs. Provider-Based Rapid Point-of-Care HIV Screening in the Emergency Department

Routine HIV screening in emergency department (ED) settings may require dedicated personnel. We evaluated the outcomes, costs and cost-effectiveness of HIV screening when offered by either a member of the ED staff or by an HIV counselor.We employed a mathematical model to extend data obtained from a randomized clinical trial of provider- vs. counselor-based HIV screening in the ED. We compared the downstream survival, costs, and cost-effectiveness of three HIV screening modalities: 1) no screening program; 2) an ED provider-based program; and 3) an HIV counselor-based program. Trial arm-specific data were used for test offer and acceptance rates (provider offer 36%, acceptance 75%; counselor offer 80%, acceptance 71%). Undiagnosed HIV prevalence (0.4%) and linkage to care rates (80%) were assumed to be equal between the screening modalities. Personnel costs were derived from trial-based resource utilization data. We examined the generalizability of results by conducting sensitivity analyses on offer and acceptance rates, undetected HIV prevalence, and costs.Estimated HIV screening costs in the provider and counselor arms averaged $8.10 and$31.00 per result received. The Provider strategy (compared to no screening) had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $58,700/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and the Counselor strategy (compared to the Provider strategy) had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of$64,500/QALY. Results were sensitive to the relative offer and acceptance rates by strategy and the capacity of providers to target-screen, but were robust to changes in undiagnosed HIV prevalence and programmatic costs.The cost-effectiveness of provider-based HIV screening in an emergency department setting compares favorably to other US screening programs. Despite its additional cost, counselor-based screening delivers just as much return on investment as provider based-screening. Investment in dedicated HIV screening personnel is justified in situations where ED staff resources may be insufficient to provide comprehensive, sustainable screening services