Visualization of dominant stress-transfer mechanisms in experimental debris flows of different particle-size distribution

Physical modelling of debris flow in a small-scale flume has been carried out to investigate the internal stress-transfer mechanisms within unsteady, saturated, and segregating granular free-surface flows. Measurements of the internal velocity fields within model flows were obtained via planar laser–induced fluorescence and particle image velocimetry. Normalized velocity profiles taken at a section over the flow duration were found to essentially collapse onto a single curve, the shape of which was dependent on the particle-size distribution. While all flows exhibited internal basal slip and shear, for tests on well-graded materials that are most representative of debris flows, the shear rate was found to reduce towards the surface to near-zero, exhibiting near plug-flow. Dimensional analysis shows that particles of different size within these flows experienced different dominant stress-transfer mechanisms — frictional, collisional or viscous. Rapid grain-size segregation therefore is both due to and results in different modes of stress transfer within a single flow. This means that in a segregating and hence, stratified system, different flow regimes will act concurrently at microscale and mesoscale. Results highlight the complexity of debris flows, so that it may be undesirable to ascribe a single microscale constitutive behaviour throughout, and further calls into question the concept of flow regimes for debris flows based on bulk measurements

Dynamic rock fragmentation: thresholds for long runout rock avalanches

The dynamic fragmentation of rock within rock avalanches is examined using the fragmentation concepts introduced by Grady and co-workers. The analyses use typical material values for weak chalk and limestone in order to determine theoretical strain rate thresholds for dynamic fragmentation and resulting fragment sizes. These are found to compare favourably with data obtained from field observations of long runout rock avalanches and chalk cliff collapses in spite of the simplicity of the approach used. The results provide insight as to the energy requirements to develop long runout behaviour and hence may help to explain the observed similarities between large rock avalanches and much smaller scale chalk cliff collapses as seen in Europe

Stability evaluation and prediction of the Dongla reactivated ancient landslide as well as emergency mitigation for the Dongla Bridge

The Dongla Bridge, Muli County, China, is a key access road between counties in Sichuan Province and the only traffic facility for an important 500-kV electricity substation which provides power to nearby counties. In June 2011, during the bridge construction, an unknown landslide, subsequently named the Dongla Ancient Landslide (DAL), was encountered. Local reactivation of a portion of the DAL, termed the Dongla Reactivated Landslide (DRL), was indicated by evident ground deformation at the Dongla Bridge. In spite of this, transportation of some heavy electrical equipment to the substation was scheduled on 9 May 2013. So, to guarantee the stability and security of the bridge became a primary emergency task. Detailed field investigations of the landslide occurrence, monitoring and emergency mitigation construction were carried out in the period between 2011 and 2014. This resulted in a temporary stabilization of the revived landslide and ensured the timely transportation of the heavy electrical equipment. It is thought that the revival mechanism of the DRL is creep, translational sliding, and was mainly triggered by artificial slope-cutting, but also influenced by precipitation, river erosion, and man-made activities in the form of small-scale mining operations. Following complete failure of the DRL, the probability of landslide-dam and dam breach is proved to be small by risk analyses. This paper can provide an insight into the problems associated with the interaction between the human structures and landslide instabilities

Observation of microstructure of silty sand obtained from gelpush sampler and reconstituted sample

Observation of microstructure study of natural sand i.e. clean sand with fines (particles adjudged to be smaller than 75μm) content < 5% (Gel Push A) and silty sand with 35% fine content (Gel Push B) obtained by gel-push sampling was described. In addition, some observations from reconstituted samples prepared by dry pluviation and moist tamping were presented. Microstructures were investigated statistically by measuring particle orientation. It was evidence that natural sand (either gel push A and B) have a preferred orientation i.e. horizontally oriented. Similar particle orientation trend were observed by dry pluviated sample. Undisturbed and dry pluviated samples shows that they are anisotropic in terms of particles orientation. Moist tamped sample on the other hand, results in fairly random orientation with a slight bias towards vertical, thus does not replicate natural sand fabric

Fluid effects in model granular flows

Pore fluid plays a crucial role in many granular flows, especially those in geophysical settings. However, the transition in behaviour between dry flows and fully saturated flows and the underlying physics that relate to this are poorly understood. In this paper, we report the results of small-scale flume experiments using monodisperse granular particles with varying water content and volume in which the basal pore pressure, total pressure, flow height and velocity profile were measured at a section. We compare the results with theoretical profiles for granular flow and with flow regimes based on dimensional analysis. The runout and the centre of mass were also calculated from the deposit surface profiles. As the initial water content by mass was increased from zero to around 10%, we first observed a drop in mobility by approximately 50%, as surface tension caused cohesive behaviour due to matric suction. As the water content was further increased up to 45%, the mobility also increased dramatically, with increased flow velocity up to 50%, increased runout distance up to 240% and reduced travel angle by up to 10° compared to the dry case. These effects can be directly related to the basal pore pressure, with both negative pressures and positive pore pressures being measured relative to atmospheric during the unsteady flow. We find that the initial flow volume plays a role in the development of relative pore pressure, such that, at a fixed relative water content, larger flows exhibit greater positive pore pressures, greater velocities and greater relative runout distances. This aligns with many other granular experiments and field observations. Our findings suggest that the fundamental role of the pore fluid is to reduce frictional contact forces between grains thus increasing flow velocity and bulk mobility. While this can occur by the development of excess pore pressure, it can also occur where the positive pore pressure is not in excess of hydrostatic, as shown here, since buoyancy and lubrication alone will reduce frictional forces

Misclassification in defining and diagnosing microcephaly

Background: Several health agencies define microcephaly for surveillance purposes using a single criterion, a percentile or Z-score cut-off for newborn head circumference. This definition, however, conflicts with the reported prevalence of microcephaly even in populations with endemic Zika virus. Objective: We explored possible reasons for this conflict, hypothesising that the definition of microcephaly used in some studies may be incompletely described, lacking the additional clinical criteria that clinicians use to make a formal diagnosis. We also explored the potential for misclassification that can result from differences in these definitions, especially when applying a percentile cut-off definition in the presence of the much lower observed prevalence estimates that we believe to be valid. Methods: We conducted simulations under a theoretical bimodal distribution of head circumference. For different definitions of microcephaly, we calculated the sensitivity and specificity using varying cut-offs of head circumference. We then calculated and plotted the positive predictive value for each of these definitions by prevalence of microcephaly. Results: Simple simulations suggest that if the true prevalence of microcephaly is approximately what is reported in peer-reviewed literature, then relying on cut-off-based definitions may lead to very poor positive predictive value under realistic conditions. Conclusions: While a simple head circumference criterion may be used in practice as a screening or surveillance tool, the definition lacks clarification as to what constitutes true pathological microcephaly and may lead to confusion about the true prevalence of microcephaly in Zika-endemic areas, as well as bias in aetiologic studies

Modular Equations and Distortion Functions

Modular equations occur in number theory, but it is less known that such equations also occur in the study of deformation properties of quasiconformal mappings. The authors study two important plane quasiconformal distortion functions, obtaining monotonicity and convexity properties, and finding sharp bounds for them. Applications are provided that relate to the quasiconformal Schwarz Lemma and to Schottky's Theorem. These results also yield new bounds for singular values of complete elliptic integrals.Comment: 23 page

Tocilizumab in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial

Background: In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effects of tocilizumab in adult patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 with both hypoxia and systemic inflammation. Methods: This randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]), is assessing several possible treatments in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in the UK. Those trial participants with hypoxia (oxygen saturation &lt;92% on air or requiring oxygen therapy) and evidence of systemic inflammation (C-reactive protein ≥75 mg/L) were eligible for random assignment in a 1:1 ratio to usual standard of care alone versus usual standard of care plus tocilizumab at a dose of 400 mg–800 mg (depending on weight) given intravenously. A second dose could be given 12–24 h later if the patient's condition had not improved. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, assessed in the intention-to-treat population. The trial is registered with ISRCTN (50189673) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04381936). Findings: Between April 23, 2020, and Jan 24, 2021, 4116 adults of 21 550 patients enrolled into the RECOVERY trial were included in the assessment of tocilizumab, including 3385 (82%) patients receiving systemic corticosteroids. Overall, 621 (31%) of the 2022 patients allocated tocilizumab and 729 (35%) of the 2094 patients allocated to usual care died within 28 days (rate ratio 0·85; 95% CI 0·76–0·94; p=0·0028). Consistent results were seen in all prespecified subgroups of patients, including those receiving systemic corticosteroids. Patients allocated to tocilizumab were more likely to be discharged from hospital within 28 days (57% vs 50%; rate ratio 1·22; 1·12–1·33; p&lt;0·0001). Among those not receiving invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline, patients allocated tocilizumab were less likely to reach the composite endpoint of invasive mechanical ventilation or death (35% vs 42%; risk ratio 0·84; 95% CI 0·77–0·92; p&lt;0·0001). Interpretation: In hospitalised COVID-19 patients with hypoxia and systemic inflammation, tocilizumab improved survival and other clinical outcomes. These benefits were seen regardless of the amount of respiratory support and were additional to the benefits of systemic corticosteroids. Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council) and National Institute of Health Research

Convalescent plasma in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised controlled, open-label, platform trial

Background: Many patients with COVID-19 have been treated with plasma containing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of convalescent plasma therapy in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Methods: This randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]) is assessing several possible treatments in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in the UK. The trial is underway at 177 NHS hospitals from across the UK. Eligible and consenting patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either usual care alone (usual care group) or usual care plus high-titre convalescent plasma (convalescent plasma group). The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, analysed on an intention-to-treat basis. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936. Findings: Between May 28, 2020, and Jan 15, 2021, 11558 (71%) of 16287 patients enrolled in RECOVERY were eligible to receive convalescent plasma and were assigned to either the convalescent plasma group or the usual care group. There was no significant difference in 28-day mortality between the two groups: 1399 (24%) of 5795 patients in the convalescent plasma group and 1408 (24%) of 5763 patients in the usual care group died within 28 days (rate ratio 1·00, 95% CI 0·93–1·07; p=0·95). The 28-day mortality rate ratio was similar in all prespecified subgroups of patients, including in those patients without detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at randomisation. Allocation to convalescent plasma had no significant effect on the proportion of patients discharged from hospital within 28 days (3832 [66%] patients in the convalescent plasma group vs 3822 [66%] patients in the usual care group; rate ratio 0·99, 95% CI 0·94–1·03; p=0·57). Among those not on invasive mechanical ventilation at randomisation, there was no significant difference in the proportion of patients meeting the composite endpoint of progression to invasive mechanical ventilation or death (1568 [29%] of 5493 patients in the convalescent plasma group vs 1568 [29%] of 5448 patients in the usual care group; rate ratio 0·99, 95% CI 0·93–1·05; p=0·79). Interpretation: In patients hospitalised with COVID-19, high-titre convalescent plasma did not improve survival or other prespecified clinical outcomes. Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council) and National Institute of Health Research