Aquatic Invertebrate Community Structure, Biological Condition, Habitat, and Water Quality at Ozark National Scenic Riverways, Missouri, 2005-2014

Ozark National Scenic Riverways (OZAR) was established to protect the corridor of the Current River and its major tributary, the Jacks Fork. The Current River is one of the few remaining free-flowing rivers in the U.S., with much of its base flow coming from several large springs. To assess the biological condition of these rivers, aquatic invertebrate community structure was monitored from 2005 to 2014. Benthic invertebrate samples and associated habitat and water quality data were collected from each of nine sampling sites using a Slack-Surber sampler. The Stream Condition Index (SCI), a multimetric index that incorporates taxa richness, EPT (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera) richness, Shannon’s diversity index, and Hilsenhoff Biotic Index (HBI), was calculated. The benthic invertebrate fauna was diverse with 155 distinct taxa identified from all sites. Mean taxa richness was high, ranging from 22 to 30 among sites. The invertebrate taxa of the Current River and Jacks Fork are largely intolerant across all taxa represented (mean tolerance value= ~4.25). Mean HBI did not exceed 3.9 in the Current River or 4.4 for the Jacks Fork. Mean SCI scores across sampling sites generally were well above 16, indicating they are not impaired. Habitat and water quality data were summarized, but they were poorly correlated with individual invertebrate metrics. Sørenson’s similarity index was used to assess community similarity among sites, and similarity scores were then analyzed using ascendant hierarchical cluster analysis. Similarity among sites was 72% or greater. Cluster analysis showed that Current River and Jacks Fork sites clustered separately and in a downstream progression. The uppermost collection site on the Current River was most unlike the other sites, which probably relates to the distinct physical features of that site compared to the others. Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS) was used to evaluate the relationship of invertebrate metrics to habitat and water quality. The NMDS model was found to be a good fit (stress=0.04) and specific conductance, temperature, discharge, filamentous algae and aquatic vegetation were among the most important habitat variables in defining the relationship among sampling sites. The three lower Current River and Jacks Fork sites each were closely grouped in ordination space, but the three upper Current River sites were farther apart from each other. The influence of several large volume springs near those sites is suspected of producing such disparity through press type disturbances. Although the invertebrate communities and water quality in the Current River and Jacks Fork are largely sound and have high biological condition, ongoing and projected threats to these resources remain, and those threats largely originate outside park jurisdictional boundaries. Inherent variability of invertebrate community diversity across sites and years highlights the importance of using multi-metric assessments and multiyear monitoring to support management decisions

A User\u27s Manual for Computer Programs Used in: Model Choice: An Operational Comparison of Stochastic Streamflow Models for Droughts

The rapid development of stochastic or operational hydrology over the past 10 years has led to the need for some comparative analyses of the currently available long-term persistence models. Five annual stochastic streamflow generation models (autoregressive, autoregressive-moviing-average (ARMA), ARMA-Markov, fast fractional Gaussian noise, and broken line) are compared on their ability to preserved drought-related time series properties and annual statistics. Using Monto Carlo generation procedures and comparing the average generated statistics and drought or water supply properties, a basis is established to evaluated model performance on four different Utah study streams. A seasonal disaggregation model is applied to each of the generated annual models for each of the four study streams at a monthly disaggregation level. A model choice strategy is presented for the water resources engineer to select an annual stochastic streamflow model based on values of the historic time series; lag-one serial correlation and Hurst coefficient. Procedures are presented for annual and seasonal model parameter estimation, calibration, and generation. Techniques to ensure a consistent matrix for successful matric decomposition are included such as normality, trend-analysis, and choice of model. User oriented model parameter estimation techniques that are easy and efficient to use are presented in a systematic manner. The ARMA-Markov and ARMA models are judged to be the best overall models in terms of preserving the short and long term persistence statistics for the four historic time series studied. The broken line model is judged to be the best model in terms of minimizing the economic regret as determined by an agricultural crop production function. Documentation and listings of the computer programs that were used for the stochastic models\u27 parameter estimation, generation, and comparison techniques are presente in a supplementary appendix

Model choice: An Operational Comparison of Stochastic Streamflow Models for Droughts

The rapid development of stochastic or operational hydrology over the past 10 years has led to the need for some comparative analyses of the currently available long-term persistence models. Five annual stochastic streamflow generation models (autoregressive, autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA), ARMA-Markov, fast fractional Gaussian noise, and broken line) are compared on their ability to preserve drought-related time series properties and annual statistics. Using Monte Carlo generation procedures and comparing the average generated statistics and drought or water supply properties, a basis is established to evalute model performance on four different Utah study streams. A seasonal disaggregation model is applied to each of the generated annual models for each of the four study streams at a monthly disaggregation level. A model choice strategy is presented for the water resources engineer to select an annual stochastic streamflow model based on values of the historic time series\u27 lag-one serial correlation and Hurst coefficient. Procedures are presented for annual and seasonal model parameter estimatino, calibration, and generation. Techniques are included such as normality, trend-analysis, and choice of model. User oriented model parameter estimation techniques that are easy and efficient to use are presented in a systematic manner. The ARMA-Markov and ARMA models are judged to be the best overall models in terms of preserving the short and long term persistence statistics for the four historic time series studied. The broken line model is judged to be the best model in terms of minimizing the evonomic regret as determined by an agricultural crop production function. Documentation and listings of the computer programs that were used for the stochastic models\u27 parameter estimation, generation, and camparison techniques are presented in a supplementary appendix

Vulnerability of Water Supply Systems to Droughts

This summary completion report describes the project work completed in three areas: 1) the development and preliminary testing of drought severity and vulnerability indices, 2) the impacts of Utah\u27s 1977 drought, and 3) an operation comparison of stochastic streamflow models. The drought indices were evaluated for three municipal and three irrigation water supply systems in Utah. It was concluded that a continuous loss function to define the effects of water shortage would be more appropriate than the existing assumption that drought-related lossed occur suddenly at a certain degree of water shortage. Information on the impacts of Utah\u27s 1977 drought was collected by surveys of municipal and rural domestic systems, water users in Salt Lake County, and farmers, stockmen, ranchers, and irrigation company officials. Survey results were used to examine drought effects in different regions of the state and with respect to size of municipal supply systems. Despite severe restrictiosn placed on Salt Lake County water users most did not consider the experience an undue burden. The comparison of five stochastic streamflow models on four Utah streams lead to a preliminary model choice strategy which is based on the historical estimates of the lag-one autocorrelation and Hurst coefficients

Correlation of Positive and Negative Reciprocity Fails to Confer an Evolutionary Advantage: Phase Transitions to Elementary Strategies

Economic experiments reveal that humans value cooperation and fairness. Punishing unfair behavior is therefore common, and according to the theory of strong reciprocity, it is also directly related to rewarding cooperative behavior. However, empirical data fail to confirm that positive and negative reciprocity are correlated. Inspired by this disagreement, we determine whether the combined application of reward and punishment is evolutionarily advantageous. We study a spatial public goods game, where in addition to the three elementary strategies of defection, rewarding, and punishment, a fourth strategy that combines the latter two competes for space. We find rich dynamical behavior that gives rise to intricate phase diagrams where continuous and discontinuous phase transitions occur in succession. Indirect territorial competition, spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance, as well as divergent fluctuations of oscillations that terminate in an absorbing phase are observed. Yet, despite the high complexity of solutions, the combined strategy can survive only in very narrow and unrealistic parameter regions. Elementary strategies, either in pure or mixed phases, are much more common and likely to prevail. Our results highlight the importance of patterns and structure in human cooperation, which should be considered in future experiments

A New Solid Deuterium Source of Ultra-Cold Neutrons

In polarized neutron decay, the angular correlation between the neutron spin and the direction of emission of the electron is characterized by the coefficient A. Measuring A involves determining the forward-backward asymmetry of the decay beta with respect to the direction of the neutron polarization. The value of A, when combined with measurements of the neutron lifetime, determines the values of the vector and axial vector weak coupling constants, Gv and GA. The value of Gv can also be determined by measurements of superallowed nuclear beta decay and by requiring that the Cabibo-Kobayashi-Maskawi (CKM) mixing matrix be unitary along with the measured value of other elements of the CKM matrix

The BNO-LNGS joint measurement of the solar neutrino capture rate in 71Ga

We describe a cooperative measurement of the capture rate of solar neutrinos by the reaction 71Ga(\nu_e,e^-)71Ge. Extractions were made from a portion of the gallium target in the Russian-American Gallium Experiment SAGE and the extraction samples were transported to the Gran Sasso laboratory for synthesis and counting at the Gallium Neutrino Observatory GNO. Six extractions of this type were made and the resultant solar neutrino capture rate was 64 ^{+24}_{-22} SNU, which agrees well with the overall result of the gallium experiments. The major purpose of this experiment was to make it possible for SAGE to continue their regular schedule of monthly solar neutrino extractions without interruption while a separate experiment was underway to measure the response of 71Ga to neutrinos from an 37Ar source. As side benefits, this experiment proved the feasibility of long-distance sample transport in ultralow background radiochemical experiments and familiarized each group with the methods and techniques of the other.Comment: 7 pages, no figures; minor additions in version

The Serums Tool-Chain:Ensuring Security and Privacy of Medical Data in Smart Patient-Centric Healthcare Systems

Digital technology is permeating all aspects of human society and life. This leads to humans becoming highly dependent on digital devices, including upon digital: assistance, intelligence, and decisions. A major concern of this digital dependence is the lack of human oversight or intervention in many of the ways humans use this technology. This dependence and reliance on digital technology raises concerns in how humans trust such systems, and how to ensure digital technology behaves appropriately. This works considers recent developments and projects that combine digital technology and artificial intelligence with human society. The focus is on critical scenarios where failure of digital technology can lead to significant harm or even death. We explore how to build trust for users of digital technology in such scenarios and considering many different challenges for digital technology. The approaches applied and proposed here address user trust along many dimensions and aim to build collaborative and empowering use of digital technologies in critical aspects of human society

Measurement of the Solar Neutrino Capture Rate by the Russian-American Gallium Solar Neutrino Experiment During One Half of the 22-Year Cycle of Solar Activity

We present the results of measurements of the solar neutrino capture rate in gallium metal by the Russian-American Gallium Experiment SAGE during slightly more than half of a 22-year cycle of solar activity. Combined analysis of the data of 92 runs during the 12-year period January 1990 through December 2001 gives a capture rate of solar neutrinos with energy more than 233 keV of 70.8 +5.3/-5.2 (stat.) +3.7/-3.2 (syst.) SNU. This represents only slightly more than half of the predicted standard solar model rate of 128 SNU. We give the results of new runs beginning in April 1998 and the results of combined analysis of all runs since 1990 during yearly, monthly, and bimonthly periods. Using a simple analysis of the SAGE results combined with those from all other solar neutrino experiments, we estimate the electron neutrino pp flux that reaches the Earth to be (4.6 +/- 1.1) E10/(cm^2-s). Assuming that neutrinos oscillate to active flavors the pp neutrino flux emitted in the solar fusion reaction is approximately (7.7 +/- 1.8) E10/(cm^2-s), in agreement with the standard solar model calculation of (5.95 +/- 0.06) E10/(cm^2-s).Comment: English translation of article submitted to Russian journal Zh. Eksp. Teor. Fiz. (JETP); 12 pages, 5 figures. V2: Added winter-summer difference and 2 reference

Stochastic Interpolation of Precipitation Data From Multiple Sensors

Introduction: This report summarizes the work conducted under Grant No. ECE-8419189, Stochastic Interpolation of Precipitation Data from Multiple Sensors, which was awarded to Utah State University in September, 1985, and completed February 29, 1988. it also covers work under a supplemental award made in February, 1986. The final report is organized into four sections. The following section presents the objective of the research and a brief problem statment. Section 3 contains a summary of second-year work including the project team, work plan, work completed, and publications. In Section4, project conclusions are summarized. A summary of on-going future work is given in Section 5, together with our plans for publication of research results from this project. Copies of preliminary draft manuscripts and completed technical reports which have been prepared as a result of second-year activities are contained in the Appendices. A cummulative summary of project publications is presented in Appendix A