Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Margin Process for a Flexible Thermal Protection System

Atmospheric entry vehicle thermal protection systems are margined due to the uncertainties that exist in entry aeroheating environments and the thermal response of the materials and structures. Entry vehicle thermal protections systems are traditionally over-margined for the heat loads that are experienced along the entry trajectory by designing to survive stacked worst-case scenarios. Additionally, the conventional heat shield design and margin process offers very little insight into the risk of over-temperature during flight and the corresponding reliability of the heat shield performance. A probabilistic margin process can be used to appropriately margin the thermal protection system based on rigorously calculated risk of failure. This probabilistic margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, entry-trajectory design, and risk trades while preventing excessive margin from being applied. This study presents the methods of the probabilistic margin process and how the uncertainty analysis is used to determine the reliability of the entry vehicle thermal protection system and associated risks of failure

ASPIRE Flight Mechanics Modeling and Post Flight Analysis

The Advanced Supersonic Parachute Inflation Research and Experiment (ASPIRE) is a series of sounding rocket flights aimed at understanding the dynamics of supersonic parachutes that are used for Mars robotic applications. SR01 was the first sounding rocket flight of ASPIRE that occurred off the coast of Wallops Island, VA on Oct. 4, 2017 and showed the successful deployment and inflation of a Mars Science Laboratory built-to- print parachute in flight conditions similar to the 2012 Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission. SR02 was the second sounding rocket flight that also occurred off the coast of Wallops Island on March 31, 2018 and showcased the successful deployment and inflation of a new strengthened parachute being considered for the Mars 2020 mission at fifty percent higher dynamic pressure than observed on MSL. Prior to both flights, a multi-body flight dynamics simulation was developed to predict the parachute dynamics and was used, in conjunction with other tools, to target Mars-relevant flight conditions. After each flight, the reconstructed trajectory was used to validate the pre-flight dynamics simulation and recommend changes to improve predictions for future flights planned for the ASPIRE pro- gram. This paper describes the flight mechanics simulation and the post flight reconciliation process used to validate the flight models

Methanotrophy potential versus methane supply by pore water diffusion in peatlands

Journal ArticlePublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences UnionAuthor(s) 2009.Low affinity methanotrophic bacteria consume a significant quantity of methane in wetland soils in the vicinity of plant roots and at the oxic-anoxic interface. Estimates of the efficiency of methanotrophy in peat soils vary widely in part because of differences in approaches employed to quantify methane cycling. High resolution profiles of dissolved methane abundance measured during the summer of 2003 were used to quantity rates of upward methane flux in four peatlands situated in Wales, UK. Aerobic incubations of peat from a minerotrophic and an ombrotrophic mire were used to determine depth distributions of kinetic parameters associated with methane oxidation. The capacity for methanotrophy in a 3 cm thick zone immediately beneath the depth of nil methane abundance in pore water was significantly greater than the rate of upward diffusion of methane in all four peatlands. Rates of methane diffusion in pore water at the minerotrophic peatlands were small (<10%) compared to surface emissions during June to August. The proportions were notably greater in the ombrotrophic bogs because of their typically low methane emission rates. Methanotrophy appears to consume entirely methane transported by pore water diffusion in the four peatlands with the exception of 4 of the 33 gas profiles sampled. Flux rates to the atmosphere regardless are high because of gas transport through vascular plants, in particular, at the minerotrophic sites. Cumulative rainfall amount 3-days prior to sampling correlated well with the distance between the water table level and the depth of 0 μmol l-1 methane, indicating that precipitation events can impact methane distributions in pore water. Further work is needed to characterise the kinetics of methane oxidation spatially and temporally in different wetland types in order to determine generalized relationships for methanotrophy in peatlands that can be incorporated into process-based models of methane cycling in peat soils.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Royal Societ

Flight Envelope Assessment of SmallSat Aerocapture Trajectories at Venus and Mars

Aerocapture is an increasingly studied orbit insertion concept for small satellite (SmallSat) missions beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). Compared to fully propulsive methods, aerocapture reduces the orbit-insertion propellant mass by approaching on a hyperbolic path and using the planetary atmosphere to reduce the vehicle’s velocity such that the final target orbit is achieved. This allows for an increase in payload mass delivered to orbit and a reduction in launch-to -orbit time. To analyze the feasibility at Venus and Mars, aerocapture flight envelope analysis is conducted by assessing the guidable trajectory space during atmospheric flight given entry conditions, vehicle properties, target parameters, and planet-dependent trajectory dispersions. The Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) is used to simulate both ballistic and lifting aerocapture trajectories with SmallSat-compatible aeroshell designs. The entry flight path angle is optimized to achieve a final target orbit for lift up/down and max/min control configurations. When plotted, the resulting area between the steep and shallow trajectories forms a flight envelope with planet-dependent ±3σ atmospheric, aerodynamic, and delivery state dispersion profiles applied. The results presented in this paper show that SmallSat aerocapture is feasible for lifting aeroshell designs at Mars and Venus as well as ballistic vehicle designs at Mars

Small Satellite-Sized Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators for Interplanetary Science Missions

To make the most of ridesharing opportunities, small satellite (SmallSat) mission designers endeavor to pack as much payload into a SmallSat-class form factor as possible. The mass and volume constraints of this smaller vehicle class present a challenge for interplanetary mission sets that require a means of achieving orbit insertion at their destination of interest. For a fully propulsive orbit insertion design, this may translate to the propellant mass being a significant fraction of the overall vehicle mass and prolonged insertion time. Aerocapture is a single quick maneuver that can significantly reduce the required propellant mass for orbit insertion. Because aerocapture uses a planet’s atmosphere to achieve the necessary change in velocity, a protective aeroshell is needed. The constraints imposed on secondary payloads render traditional rigid aeroshells mass and space prohibitive for the SmallSat class of vehicles; thus, warranting consideration of deployable designs that can be stowed compactly until needed for atmospheric entry. The Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) is a deployable aeroshell that leverages inflatable toroids to achieve the large drag area needed for aerodynamic deceleration. While the technology is currently being analyzed for Mars human-scale missions, it has the potential applicability for interplanetary SmallSat-scale missions as well. This paper highlights a study conducted during an internship at NASA Langley Research Center to investigate the feasibility of using a scaled-down HIAD design in SmallSat aerocapture missions. Several scaling methodologies are investigated including use of parametric models and direct computer-aided design (CAD) model scaling. Candidate HIAD configurations that conform to secondary payload adapter requirements are identified. The Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) is utilized to conduct orbit insertion performance and trajectory sensitivity studies using the candidate configurations at Earth, Venus, and Mars. The results of the study indicate that multiple SmallSat-sized HIAD designs, targeting a range of SmallSat payload classes, are feasible for planetary aerocapture missions to Mars and Venus as well as Earth-based aerocapture missions

LDSD POST2 Modeling Enhancements in Support of SFDT-2 Flight Operations

Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) was utilized to develop trajectory simulations characterizing all flight phases from drop to splashdown for the Low-Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD) project's first and second Supersonic Flight Dynamics Tests (SFDT-1 and SFDT-2) which took place June 28, 2014 and June 8, 2015, respectively. This paper describes the modeling improvements incorporated into the LDSD POST2 simulations since SFDT-1 and presents how these modeling updates affected the predicted SFDT-2 performance and sensitivity to the mission design. The POST2 simulation flight dynamics support during the SFDT-2 launch, operations, and recovery is also provided

Implementation and Simulation Results using Autonomous Aerobraking Development Software

An Autonomous Aerobraking software system is currently under development with support from the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) that would move typically ground-based operations functions to onboard an aerobraking spacecraft, reducing mission risk and mission cost. The suite of software that will enable autonomous aerobraking is the Autonomous Aerobraking Development Software (AADS) and consists of an ephemeris model, onboard atmosphere estimator, temperature and loads prediction, and a maneuver calculation. The software calculates the maneuver time, magnitude and direction commands to maintain the spacecraft periapsis parameters within design structural load and/or thermal constraints. The AADS is currently tested in simulations at Mars, with plans to also evaluate feasibility and performance at Venus and Titan

Autonomous Aerobraking Development Software: Phase One Performance Analysis at Mars, Venus, and Titan

When entering orbit about a planet or moon with an appreciable atmosphere, instead of using only the propulsion system to insert the spacecraft into its desired orbit, aerodynamic drag can be used after the initial orbit insertion to further decelerate the spacecraft. Several past NASA missions have used this aerobraking technique to reduce the fuel required to deliver a spacecraft into a desired orbit. Aerobraking was first demonstrated at Venus with Magellan in 1993 and then was used to achieve the science orbit of three Mars orbiters: Mars Global Surveyor in 1997, Mars Odyssey in 2001, and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter in 2006. Although aerobraking itself reduces the propellant required to reach a final low period orbit, it does so at the expense of additional mission time to accommodate the aerobraking operations phase (typically 3-6 months), a large mission operations staff, and significant Deep Space Network (DSN) coverage. By automating ground based tasks and analyses associated with aerobraking and moving these onboard the spacecraft, a flight project could save millions of dollars in operations staffing and DSN costs (Ref. 1)

LDSD POST2 Simulation and SFDT-1 Pre-Flight Launch Operations Analyses

The Low-Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD) Project's first Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test (SFDT-1) occurred June 28, 2014. Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) was utilized to develop trajectory simulations characterizing all SFDT-1 flight phases from drop to splashdown. These POST2 simulations were used to validate the targeting parameters developed for SFDT- 1, predict performance and understand the sensitivity of the vehicle and nominal mission designs, and to support flight test operations with trajectory performance and splashdown location predictions for vehicle recovery. This paper provides an overview of the POST2 simulations developed for LDSD and presents the POST2 simulation flight dynamics support during the SFDT-1 launch, operations, and recovery

Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test 1 - Post-Flight Assessment of Simulation Performance

NASA's Low Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD) project conducted its first Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test (SFDT-1) on June 28, 2014. Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) was one of the flight dynamics codes used to simulate and predict the flight performance and Monte Carlo analysis was used to characterize the potential flight conditions experienced by the test vehicle. This paper compares the simulation predictions with the reconstructed trajectory of SFDT-1. Additionally, off-nominal conditions seen during flight are modeled in post-flight simulations to find the primary contributors that reconcile the simulation with flight data. The results of these analyses are beneficial for the pre-flight simulation and targeting of the follow-on SFDT flights currently scheduled for summer 2015