The role of science in physical natural hazard assessment : report to the UK Government by the Natural Hazard Working Group

Following the tragic Asian tsunami on 26 December 2004, the Prime Minister asked the Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir David King, to convene a group of experts (the Natural Hazard Working Group) to advise on the mechanisms that could and should be established for the detection and early warning of global physical natural hazards. 2. The Group was asked to examine physical hazards which have high global or regional impact and for which an appropriate early warning system could be put in place. It was also asked to consider the global natural hazard frameworks currently in place and under development and their effectiveness in using scientific evidence; to consider whether there is an existing appropriate international body to pull together the international science community to advise governments on the systems that need to be put in place, and to advise on research needed to fill current gaps in knowledge. The Group was asked to make recommendations on whether a new body was needed, or whether other arrangements would be more effective

Structure des grands bassins glaciaires dans le nord de la péninsule ibérique: comparaison entre les vallées d'Andorre (Pyrénées orientales), du Gállego (Pyrénées centrales) et du Trueba (Chaîne Cantabrique).

Les grandes vallées glaciaires de la Péninsule Ibérique sont situées dans la chaîne pyrénéo-cantabrique, principalement dans le bassin de l'Èbre. Ainsi, les vallées d'Andorre, de la Noguera Pallaresa et de la haute vallée du Gállego, dans les Pyrénées, ont eu des appareils glaciaires longs de 42, 50 et 40 km respectivement. Dans les vallées du Sil (bassin du Miño) et du Trueba, dans la Chaîne Cantabrique, ils atteignaient 42 et 16,5 km (Serrano-Cañadas, 1996 ; Gómez-Ortiz et al., 2001 ; Turu & Peña, 2006a et b ; Redondo-Vega et al., 2006). L'une des caractéristiques géomorphologiques de la plupart de ces vallées est l'existence d'une dépression morphologique du substratum dans les parties moyennes et terminales, interprétée comme la conséquence de l'érosion glaciaire. Dans tous les cas, on observe une architecture litho-stratigraphique commune (Vilaplana & Casas, 1983 ; Bordonau et al., 1989 ; Bordonau, 1992 ; Turu et al., 2002) représentée par trois unités géoélectriques : une unité inférieure très épaisse, avec des résistivités électriques basses (70 - 200 Ohms par mètre), qui traduit la présence de matériaux fins considérés comme d'origine lacustre ; une unité intermédiaire, moins épaisse, avec des valeurs de résistivité plus élevées (400 - 800 Ohms par mètre), pouvant être interprétée comme un système fluvio-deltaïque pro-glaciaire et une unité géoélectrique supérieure, avec des valeurs de résistivité très variables (100 - 1500 Ohms par mètre), constituée de sédiments alluviaux subactuels. La comparaison des données de type géophysique et géomécanique (sismique à réfraction et essais pressiométriques) montre que l'unité intermédiaire, considérée comme d'origine fluvio-deltaïque, présente des valeurs de vitesse sismique anormalement élevées, ainsi que de hautes valeurs de consolidation. Cette observation effectuée pour la première fois dans la vallée d'Andorre (Turu, 2000) montre des remarquables corrélations entre les hautes vitesses sismiques et les valeurs élevées de consolidation, ainsi que la très nette corrélation entre les hautes valeurs de consolidation et les tills sous-glaciaires. Elle permet d'interpréter l'unité intermédiaire comme essentiellement glaciaire et de remettre en question le modèle simple d'une séquence de comblement lacustre et deltaïque proposé jusqu´à maintenant

5 year retrospective follow-up of new cases of Charcot neuroarthropathy - A single centre experience

Background: Few data describe the natural history of Charcot neuroarthropathy treated with a total contact plaster cast (TCC). Methods: A 5 year retrospective analysis of 50 patients presenting with an acute CN, Assessing time to clinical resolution into appropriate footwear and assessing if initial immobilisation device influenced resolution time. Results: During the study period 42 patients (84%) of patients went into remission, 2 died during their treatment, 4 had major amputations, in 2 patients treatment was ongoing. 36 patients were treated with combination offloading devices, 6 were treated with one modality only. Median time to resolution for patients initially treated with a TCC was not significantly shorter than for those treated with a removable below knee boot. 34.9% required re-casting due to clinical deterioration in the removable device. Conclusions: More precise measures of resolution of CN are needed to assess the impact of initial treatment modality on time to resolution

Methods for the thematic synthesis of qualitative research in systematic reviews

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is a growing recognition of the value of synthesising qualitative research in the evidence base in order to facilitate effective and appropriate health care. In response to this, methods for undertaking these syntheses are currently being developed. Thematic analysis is a method that is often used to analyse data in primary qualitative research. This paper reports on the use of this type of analysis in systematic reviews to bring together and integrate the findings of multiple qualitative studies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We describe thematic synthesis, outline several steps for its conduct and illustrate the process and outcome of this approach using a completed review of health promotion research. Thematic synthesis has three stages: the coding of text 'line-by-line'; the development of 'descriptive themes'; and the generation of 'analytical themes'. While the development of descriptive themes remains 'close' to the primary studies, the analytical themes represent a stage of interpretation whereby the reviewers 'go beyond' the primary studies and generate new interpretive constructs, explanations or hypotheses. The use of computer software can facilitate this method of synthesis; detailed guidance is given on how this can be achieved.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We used thematic synthesis to combine the studies of children's views and identified key themes to explore in the intervention studies. Most interventions were based in school and often combined learning about health benefits with 'hands-on' experience. The studies of children's views suggested that fruit and vegetables should be treated in different ways, and that messages should not focus on health warnings. Interventions that were in line with these suggestions tended to be more effective. Thematic synthesis enabled us to stay 'close' to the results of the primary studies, synthesising them in a transparent way, and facilitating the explicit production of new concepts and hypotheses.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We compare thematic synthesis to other methods for the synthesis of qualitative research, discussing issues of context and rigour. Thematic synthesis is presented as a tried and tested method that preserves an explicit and transparent link between conclusions and the text of primary studies; as such it preserves principles that have traditionally been important to systematic reviewing.</p

25-hydroxyvitamin D is lower in deprived groups, but is not associated with carotid intima media thickness or plaques: results from pSoBid

Objective: The association of the circulating serum vitamin D metabolite 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) with atherosclerotic burden is unclear, with previous studies reporting disparate results. &lt;p/&gt;Method: Psychological, social and biological determinants of ill health (pSoBid) is a study of participants aged 35–64 years from Glasgow who live at extremes of the socioeconomic spectrum. Vitamin D deficiency was defined as 25OHD &#60; 25nmol/L, as per convention. Cross-sectional associations between circulating 25OHD concentrations and a range of socioeconomic, lifestyle, and biochemistry factors, as well as carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) and plaque presence were assessed in 625 participants. &lt;p/&gt;Results: Geometric mean levels of circulating 25OHD were higher among the least deprived (45.6 nmol/L, 1-SD range 24.4–85.5) versus most deprived (34.2 nmol/L, 1-SD range 16.9–69.2; p &#60; 0.0001). In the least deprived group 15% were “deficient” in circulating 25OHD versus 30.8% in the most deprived (χ2p &#60; 0.0001). Log 25OHD was 27% lower among smokers (p &#60; 0.0001), 20% higher among the physically active versus inactive (p = 0.01), 2% lower per 1 kg/m2 increase in body mass index (BMI) (p &#60; 0.0001), and showed expected seasonal variation (χ2p &#60; 0.0001). Log 25OHD was 13% lower in the most versus least deprived independent of the aforementioned lifestyle confounding factors (p = 0.03). One unit increase in log 25OHD was not associated with atherosclerotic burden in univariable models; cIMT (effect estimate 0.000 mm [95% CI −0.011, 0.012]); plaque presence (OR 0.88 [0.75, 1.03]), or in multivariable models. &lt;p/&gt;Conclusion: There is no strong association of 25OHD with cIMT or plaque presence, despite strong evidence 25OHD associates with lifestyle factors and socioeconomic deprivation