Cross-validation of two prognostic trauma scores in severely injured patients

Introduction Trauma scoring systems are important tools for outcome prediction and severity adjustment that informs trauma quality assessment and research. Discrimination and precision of such systems is tested in validation studies. The German TraumaRegister DGU® (TR-DGU) and the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) from the UK agreed on a cross-validation study to validate their prediction scores (RISC II and PS14, respectively). Methods Severe trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥ 9 documented in 2015 and 2016 were selected in both registries (primary admissions only). The predictive scores from each registry were applied to the selected data sets. Observed and predicted mortality were compared to assess precision; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used for discrimination. Hosmer–Lemeshow statistic was calculated for calibration. A subgroup analysis including patients treated in intensive care unit (ICU) was also carried out. Results From TR-DGU, 40,638 patients were included (mortality 11.7%). The RISC II predicted mortality was 11.2%, while PS14 predicted 16.9% mortality. From TARN, 64,622 patients were included (mortality 9.7%). PS14 predicted 10.6% mortality, while RISC II predicted 17.7%. Despite the identical cutoff of ISS ≥ 9, patient groups from both registries showed considerable difference in need for intensive care (88% versus 18%). Subgroup analysis of patients treated on ICU showed nearly identical values for observed and predicted mortality using RISC II. Discussion Each score performed well within its respective registry, but when applied to the other registry a decrease in performance was observed. Part of this loss of performance could be explained by different development data sets: the RISC II is mainly based on patients treated in an ICU, while the PS14 includes cases mainly cared for outside ICU with more moderate injury severity. This is according to the respective inclusion criteria of the two registries. Conclusion External validations of prediction models between registries are needed, but may show that prediction models are not fully transferable to other health-care settings

Evaluating the impact of cycle helmet use on severe traumatic brain injury and death in a national cohort of over 11000 pedal cyclists : a retrospective study from the NHS England trauma audit and research network dataset

Objectives In the last 10 years there has been a significant increase in cycle traffic in the UK, with an associated increase in the overall number of cycling injuries. Despite this, and the significant media, political and public health debate into this issue, there remains an absence of studies from the UK assessing the impact of helmet use on rates of serious injury presenting to the National Health Service (NHS) in cyclists. Setting The NHS England Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) Database was interrogated to identify all adult (≥16 years) patients presenting to hospital with cycling-related major injuries, during a period from 14 March 2012 to 30 September 2017 (the last date for which a validated dataset was available). Participants 11 patients met inclusion criteria. Data on the use of cycling helmets were available in 6621 patients. Outcome measures TARN injury descriptors were used to compare patterns of injury, care and mortality in helmeted versus non-helmeted cohorts. Results Data on cycle helmet use were available for 6621 of the 11 192 cycle-related injuries entered onto the TARN Database in the 66 months of this study (93 excluded as not pedal cyclists). There was a significantly higher crude 30-day mortality in un-helmeted cyclists 5.6% (4.8%–6.6%) versus helmeted cyclists 1.8% (1.4%–2.2%) (p<0.001). Cycle helmet use was also associated with a reduction in severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) 19.1% (780, 18.0%–20.4%) versus 47.6% (1211, 45.6%–49.5%) (p<0.001), intensive care unit requirement 19.6% (797, 18.4%–20.8%) versus 27.1% (691, 25.4%–28.9%) (p<0.001) and neurosurgical intervention 2.5% (103, 2.1%–3.1%) versus 8.5% (217, 7.5%–9.7%) (p<0.001). There was a statistically significant increase in chest, spinal, upper and lower limb injury in the helmeted group in comparison to the un-helmeted group (all p<0.001), though in a subsequent analysis of these anatomical injury patterns, those cyclists wearing helmets were still found to have lower rates of TBI. In reviewing TARN injury codes for specific TBI and facial injuries, there was a highly significant decrease in rates of impact injury between cyclists wearing helmets and those not. Conclusions This study suggests that there is a significant correlation between use of cycle helmets and reduction in adjusted mortality and morbidity associated with TBI and facial injury

Post-critical set and non existence of preserved meromorphic two-forms

We present a family of birational transformations in $CP_2$ depending on two, or three, parameters which does not, generically, preserve meromorphic two-forms. With the introduction of the orbit of the critical set (vanishing condition of the Jacobian), also called ``post-critical set'', we get some new structures, some "non-analytic" two-form which reduce to meromorphic two-forms for particular subvarieties in the parameter space. On these subvarieties, the iterates of the critical set have a polynomial growth in the \emph{degrees of the parameters}, while one has an exponential growth out of these subspaces. The analysis of our birational transformation in $CP_2$ is first carried out using Diller-Favre criterion in order to find the complexity reduction of the mapping. The integrable cases are found. The identification between the complexity growth and the topological entropy is, one more time, verified. We perform plots of the post-critical set, as well as calculations of Lyapunov exponents for many orbits, confirming that generically no meromorphic two-form can be preserved for this mapping. These birational transformations in $CP_2$, which, generically, do not preserve any meromorphic two-form, are extremely similar to other birational transformations we previously studied, which do preserve meromorphic two-forms. We note that these two sets of birational transformations exhibit totally similar results as far as topological complexity is concerned, but drastically different results as far as a more ``probabilistic'' approach of dynamical systems is concerned (Lyapunov exponents). With these examples we see that the existence of a preserved meromorphic two-form explains most of the (numerical) discrepancy between the topological and probabilistic approach of dynamical systems.Comment: 34 pages, 7 figure

Holonomic functions of several complex variables and singularities of anisotropic Ising n-fold integrals

Lattice statistical mechanics, often provides a natural (holonomic) framework to perform singularity analysis with several complex variables that would, in a general mathematical framework, be too complex, or could not be defined. Considering several Picard-Fuchs systems of two-variables "above" Calabi-Yau ODEs, associated with double hypergeometric series, we show that holonomic functions are actually a good framework for actually finding the singular manifolds. We, then, analyse the singular algebraic varieties of the n-fold integrals $\chi^{(n)}$, corresponding to the decomposition of the magnetic susceptibility of the anisotropic square Ising model. We revisit a set of Nickelian singularities that turns out to be a two-parameter family of elliptic curves. We then find a first set of non-Nickelian singularities for $\chi^{(3)}$ and $\chi^{(4)}$, that also turns out to be rational or ellipic curves. We underline the fact that these singular curves depend on the anisotropy of the Ising model. We address, from a birational viewpoint, the emergence of families of elliptic curves, and of Calabi-Yau manifolds on such problems. We discuss the accumulation of these singular curves for the non-holonomic anisotropic full susceptibility.Comment: 36 page

Comparison of Mortality Following Hospitalisation for Isolated Head Injury in England and Wales, and Victoria, Australia

BACKGROUND: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains a leading cause of death and disability. The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines recommend transfer of severe TBI cases to neurosurgical centres, irrespective of the need for neurosurgery. This observational study investigated the risk-adjusted mortality of isolated TBI admissions in England/Wales, and Victoria, Australia, and the impact of neurosurgical centre management on outcomes. METHODS: Isolated TBI admissions (>15 years, July 2005-June 2006) were extracted from the hospital discharge datasets for both jurisdictions. Severe isolated TBI (AIS severity >3) admissions were provided by the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) and Victorian State Trauma Registry (VSTR) for England/Wales, and Victoria, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare risk-adjusted mortality between jurisdictions. FINDINGS: Mortality was 12% (749/6256) in England/Wales and 9% (91/1048) in Victoria for isolated TBI admissions. Adjusted odds of death in England/Wales were higher compared to Victoria overall (OR 2.0, 95% CI: 1.6, 2.5), and for cases <65 years (OR 2.36, 95% CI: 1.51, 3.69). For severe TBI, mortality was 23% (133/575) for TARN and 20% (68/346) for VSTR, with 72% of TARN and 86% of VSTR cases managed at a neurosurgical centre. The adjusted mortality odds for severe TBI cases in TARN were higher compared to the VSTR (OR 1.45, 95% CI: 0.96, 2.19), but particularly for cases <65 years (OR 2.04, 95% CI: 1.07, 3.90). Neurosurgical centre management modified the effect overall (OR 1.12, 95% CI: 0.73, 1.74) and for cases <65 years (OR 1.53, 95% CI: 0.77, 3.03). CONCLUSION: The risk-adjusted odds of mortality for all isolated TBI admissions, and severe TBI cases, were higher in England/Wales when compared to Victoria. The lower percentage of cases managed at neurosurgical centres in England and Wales was an explanatory factor, supporting the changes made to the NICE guidelines

Epidemiology and predictors of spinal injury in adult major trauma patients: European cohort study

This is a European cohort study on predictors of spinal injury in adult (≥16 years) major trauma patients, using prospectively collected data of the Trauma Audit and Research Network from 1988 to 2009. Predictors for spinal fractures/dislocations or spinal cord injury were determined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. 250,584 patients were analysed. 24,000 patients (9.6%) sustained spinal fractures/dislocations alone and 4,489 (1.8%) sustained spinal cord injury with or without fractures/dislocations. Spinal injury patients had a median age of 44.5 years (IQR = 28.8–64.0) and Injury Severity Score of 9 (IQR = 4–17). 64.9% were male. 45% of patients suffered associated injuries to other body regions. Age <45 years (≥45 years OR 0.83–0.94), Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) 3–8 (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02–1.19), falls >2 m (OR 4.17, 95% CI 3.98–4.37), sports injuries (OR 2.79, 95% CI 2.41–3.23) and road traffic collisions (RTCs) (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.83–2.00) were predictors for spinal fractures/dislocations. Age <45 years (≥45 years OR 0.78–0.90), male gender (female OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.72–0.85), GCS <15 (OR 1.36–1.93), associated chest injury (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01–1.20), sports injuries (OR 3.98, 95% CI 3.04–5.21), falls >2 m (OR 3.60, 95% CI 3.21–4.04), RTCs (OR 2.20, 95% CI 1.96–2.46) and shooting (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.21–3.00) were predictors for spinal cord injury. Multilevel injury was found in 10.4% of fractures/dislocations and in 1.3% of cord injury patients. As spinal trauma occurred in >10% of major trauma patients, aggressive evaluation of the spine is warranted, especially, in males, patients <45 years, with a GCS <15, concomitant chest injury and/or dangerous injury mechanisms (falls >2 m, sports injuries, RTCs and shooting). Diagnostic imaging of the whole spine and a diligent search for associated injuries are substantial

Regionalisation of trauma care in England

Aims We aimed to determine whether there is evidence of improved patient outcomes in Major Trauma Centres following the regionalisation of trauma care in England. Patients and Methods An observational study was undertaken using the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN), Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and national death registrations. The outcome measures were indicators of the quality of trauma care, such as treatment by a senior doctor and clinical outcomes, such as mortality in hospital. Results and Conclusion A total of 20 181 major trauma cases were reported to TARN during the study period, which was 270 days before and after each hospital became a Major Trauma Centre. Following regionalisation of trauma services, all indicators of the quality of care improved, fewer patients required secondary transfer between hospitals and a greater proportion were discharged with a Glasgow Outcome Score of “good recovery”. In this early post-implementation analysis, there were a number of apparent process improvements (e.g. time to CT) but no differences in either crude or adjusted mortality. The overall number of deaths following trauma in England did not change following the national reconfiguration of trauma services. Evidence from other countries that have regionalised trauma services suggests that further benefits may become apparent after a period of maturing of the trauma system

Improved outcomes for hepatic trauma in England and Wales over a decade of trauma and hepatobiliary surgery centralisation

Background: Over the last decade trauma services have undergone a reconfiguration in England and Wales. The objective is to describe the epidemiology, management and outcomes for liver trauma over this period and examine factors predicting survival. Methods: Patients sustaining hepatic trauma were identified using the Trauma Audit and Research Network database. Demographics, management and outcomes were assessed between January 2005 and December 2014 and analysed over five, 2-year study periods. Independent predictor variables for the outcome of liver trauma were analysed using multiple logistic regression. Results: 4368 Patients sustained hepatic trauma (with known outcome) between January 2005 and December 2014. Median age was 34 years (interquartile range 23–49). 81% were due to blunt and 19% to penetrating trauma. Road traffic collisions were the main mechanism of injury (58.2%). 241 patients (5.5%) underwent liver-specific surgery. The overall 30-day mortality rate was 16.4%. Improvements were seen in early consultant input, frequency and timing of computed tomography (CT) scanning, use of tranexamic acid and 30-day mortality over the five time periods. Being treated in a unit with an on-site HPB service increased the odds of survival (odds ratio 3.5, 95% confidence intervals 2.7–4.5). Conclusions: Our study has shown that being treated in a unit with an on-site HPB service increased the odds of survival. Further evaluation of the benefits of trauma and HPB surgery centralisation is warranted

Extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation for refractory cardiogenic shock after adult cardiac surgery:a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background - Postcardiotomy cardiogenic shock (PCCS) refractory to inotropic support and intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) occurs rarely but is almost universally fatal without mechanical circulatory support. In this systematic review and meta-analysis we looked at the evidence behind the use of veno-arterial extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation (VA ECMO) in refractory PCCS from a patient survival rate and determinants of outcome viewpoint. Methods - A systematic review was performed in January 2017 using PubMed (with no defined time period) using the keywords “postcardiotomy”, “cardiogenic shock”, “extracorporeal membrane oxygenation” and “cardiac surgery”. We excluded papers pertaining to ECMO following paediatric cardiac surgery, medical causes of cardiogenic shock, as well as case reports, review articles, expert opinions, and letters to the editor. Once the studies were collated, a meta-analysis was performed on the proportion of survivors in those papers that met the inclusion criteria. Meta-regression was performed for the most commonly reported adverse prognostic indicators (API). Results - We identified 24 studies and a cumulative pool of 1926 patients from 1992 to 2016. We tabulated the demographic data, including the strengths and weaknesses for each of the studies, outcomes of VA ECMO for refractory PCCS, complications, and APIs. All the studies were retrospective cohort studies. Meta-analysis of the moderately heterogeneous data (95% CI 0.29 to 0.34, p 70 years, 95% CI −0.057 to 0.001, P = 0.058), and long ECMO support (95% CI −0.068 to 0.166, P = 0.412). Postoperative renal failure, high EuroSCORE (>20%), diabetes mellitus, obesity, rising lactate whilst on ECMO, gastrointestinal complications had also been reported. Conclusion - Haemodynamic support with VA ECMO provides a survival benefit with reasonable intermediate and long-term outcomes. Many studies had reported advanced age, renal failure and prolonged VA ECMO support as the most likely APIs for VA ECMO in PCCS. EuroSCORE can be utilized to anticipate the need for prophylactic perioperative VA ECMO in the high-risk category. APIs can be used to aid decision-making regarding both the institution and weaning of ECMO for refractory PCCS