Asymmetric Information and Monetary Policy in Common Currency Areas

In a Common Currency Area (CCA) the Common Central Bank sets a uniform rate of inflation across countries, taking into account the area’s economic conditions. Suppose that countries in recession favor a more expansionary policy than countries in expansion, a conflict of interest between members arises when national business cycles are not fully syncronized. If governments of member countries have an informational advantage over the state of their domestic economy, such conflict may create an adverse selection problem: national authorities overemphasize their shocks, in order to shape the common policy towards their needs. This creates an inefficiency over and above the one-policy-fits-all cost discussed in the optimal currency area literature. In order to minimize this extra-burden of asymmetric information, monetary policy must over-react to large symmetric shocks and under-react to small asymmetric ones. The result is sub-optimal volatility of inflation

Better Wed Over the Mixen Than Over The Moor? Break-ups of Inter-Ethnic Marriages In Italy

This paper studies the resilience of inter-ethnic marriages in Italy through the lenses of marriage duration by means of survival and treatment-effect analyses. Our main findings are that inter-ethnic marriages have a significantly higher risk of separation even when we control for social and economic characteristics of the spouses; however, when we restrict the analysis to more recent marriages, we observe that co- and inter-ethnic marriages converge in longevity. Finally, we find evidence of self-selection into inter-ethnic marriages. Overall our findings points to a society that is becoming increasingly open to cultural and ethnic diversity, as well as more secular

Effetti della riduzione degli input di coltivazione sul girasole (<i>Helianthus annuus</i> L.) coltivato in diversi ambienti mediterranei

A two year field experiment was carried out on six different environmental sites of Middle and Southern Italy with the aim of evaluating the effects of some low input cultural techniques on yield of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.). In each sites sunflower commerciai hybrids were sown at different dates between January to April. Normal and minimum soil tillage were included in the experimental design, and irrigation treatments were also tested in two sites. Yield response of sunflower to minimum tillage treatments did not show in most cases a significant variation in comparison with ordinary tillage methods. Early sowing enhanced or decreased sunflower performance according to the agrometeorological features of the sites. Irrigation determined a significant yield effect but in some cases water efficiency was lower in early sowing treatments. The results indicate the possibility of reducing energy input in sunflower without remarkable yield depression, by adapting cultural techniques and hybrid choice to the environmental characteristics. Due anni di sperimentazione in campo sono stati condotti in sei differenti ambienti dell'Italia Centro-Meridionale al fine di valutare la possibilità di una semplificazione della tecnica colturale in girasole. Sono stati saggiati ibridi di diversa precocità seminati in differenti epoche e sottoposti ad un diverso grado di intensificazione delle lavorazioni. In due delle unità operative (UUOO) sono stati sperimentati anche diversi trattamenti irrigui. Nella maggior parte dei casi la lavorazione ridotta non ha determinato differenze significative di resa rispetto alla tecniche tradizionali di preparazione del terreno, mettendo in evidenza la capacità del girasole di sfruttare l'effetto residuo delle lavorazioni. L'anticipo delle semine ha avuto un effetto sulle rese variabile a seconda del sito di sperimentazione, indicando che in alcuni ambienti questo accorgimento consente di utilizzare al meglio le eventuali piogge invernali e primaverili. L'eliminazione o la riduzione degli apporti irrigui ha invece determinato significative riduzioni di produzione, anche se in alcune situazioni questo effetto è risultato meno marcato con le epoche di semina anticipate. Il primo biennio di sperimentazione ha messo in evidenza che la riduzione degli input nella coltivazione del girasole sia proponibile anche dal punto di vista economico purché si adegui la scelta delle tecniche colturali e dei genotipi alle caratteristiche ambientali

Simple Market Protocols for Efficient Risk Sharing

This paper studies the performance of four market protocols with regard to allocative efficiency and other performance criteria such as volume or volatility. We examine batch auctions, continuous double auctions, specialist dealerships, and a hybrid of these last two. All protocols are practically implementable because the messages that traders need to use are simple. We test the protocols by running (computerized) experiments in an environment that controls for traders’ behavior and rules out any informational effect. We find that all protocols generically converge to the efficient allocation in finite time. An extended comparison over other performance criteria produces no clear winner, but the presence of a specialist is associated with the best all-round performance

Alveolar pentraxin 3 as an early marker of microbiologically confirmed pneumonia: a threshold-finding prospective observational study

Introduction: Timely diagnosis of pneumonia in intubated critically ill patients is rather challenging. Pentraxin 3 (PTX3) is an acute-phase mediator produced by various cell types in the lungs. Animal studies have shown that, during pneumonia, PTX3 participates in fine-tuning of inflammation (for example, microbial clearance and recruitment of neutrophils). We previously described an association between alveolar PTX3 and lung infection in a small group of intubated patients. The aim of the present study was to determine a threshold level of alveolar PTX3 with elevated sensitivity and specificity for microbiologically confirmed pneumonia. Methods: We recruited 82 intubated patients from two intensive care units (San Gerardo Hospital, Monza, Italy, and Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA) undergoing bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) as per clinical decision. We collected BAL fluid and plasma samples, together with relevant clinical and microbiological data. We assayed PTX3 and soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 1 (sTREM-1) in BAL fluid and PTX3, sTREM-1, C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) in plasma. Two blinded independent physicians reviewed patient data to confirm pneumonia. We determined the PTX3 threshold in BAL fluid for pneumonia and compared it to other biomarkers. Results: Microbiologically confirmed pneumonia of bacterial (n =12), viral (n =4) or fungal (n =8) etiology was diagnosed in 24 patients (29%). PTX3 levels in BAL fluid predicted pneumonia with an area under the receiving operator curve of 0.815 (95% CI =0.710 to 0.921, P <0.0001), whereas none of the other biomarkers were effective. In particular, PTX3 levels ≥1 ng/ml in BAL fluid predicted pneumonia in univariate analysis (β =2.784, SE =0.792, P <0.001) with elevated sensitivity (92%), specificity (60%) and negative predictive value (95%). Net reclassification index PTX3 values ≥1 ng/ml in BAL fluid for pneumonia indicated gain in sensitivity and/or specificity vs. all other mediators. These results did not change when we limited our analyses only to confirmed cases of bacterial pneumonia. Moreover, when we considered only the 70 patients who fulfilled the clinical criteria for the diagnosis of pneumonia at BAL fluid sampling, the diagnostic accuracy of PTX levels was confirmed in univariate and ROC curve analysis. Conclusions: In this hypothesis-generating convenience sample, a PTX3 level ≥1 ng/ml in BAL fluid was discriminative of microbiologically confirmed pneumonia in mechanically ventilated patients. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13054-014-0562-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

The Italian open data meteorological portal: MISTRAL

AbstractAt the national level, in Italy, observational and forecast data are collected by various public bodies and are often kept in various small, heterogeneous and non‐interoperable repositories, released under different licenses, thus limiting the usability for external users. In this context, MISTRAL (the Meteo Italian SupercompuTing PoRtAL) was launched as the first Italian meteorological open data portal, with the aim of promoting the reuse of meteorological data sets available at national level coverage. The MISTRAL portal provides (and archives) meteorological data from various observation networks, both public and private, and forecast data that are generated and post‐processed within the Consortium for Small‐scale Modeling‐Limited Area Model Italia (COSMO‐LAMI) agreement using high performance computing (HPC) facilities. Also incorporated is the Italy Flash Flood use case, implemented with the collaboration of European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which exploits cutting edge advances in HPC‐based post‐processing of ensemble precipitation forecasts, for different model resolutions, and applies those to deliver novel blended‐resolution forecasts specifically for Italy. Finally, in addition to providing architectures for the acquisition and display of observational data, MISTRAL also delivers an interactive system for visualizing forecast data of different resolutions as superimposed multi‐layer maps

Bankers' Versus Workers' Europe (I): Adverse Selection in EMU

The delegation of monetary policy to a supranational Central Bank creates a conflict of interest between residents of different countries. For example, the country in recession favours more inflation to boost output, while the country in boom prefers exactly the opposite. This conflict gives rise to an adverse selection problem. Provided each government has private information about the current state of the economy, it may try to exploit it in order to shift the common monetary policy to his own preferred way. The paper shows that problems of this kind can generate both an inflation and primary deficit bias (in line with the worries of Workers’ Europe addressed by the ‘stability pact’) and an excess monetary discipline and recession bias (in line with the worries addressed by the Bankers’ Europe concern). When information problems are particularly severe, monetary policy becomes relatively insensitive to business cycle conditions, and too little ‘smoothing’ is done by monetary (and fiscal) policy. Inflation oscillates between periods of severe contractions (stop) and periods of extreme expansions (go), amplifying the business cycle .Adverse Selection; EMU; Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy