MULTIVARIATE ERROR COVARIANCE ESTIMATES BY MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION FOR OCEANOGRAPHIC ASSIMILATION STUDIES

One of the most difficult aspects of ocean state estimation is the prescription of the model forecast error covariances. Simple covariances are usually prescribed, rarely are cross-covariances between different model variables used. A multivariate model of the forecast error covariance is developed for an Optimal Interpolation (OI) assimilation scheme (MvOI) and compared to simpler Gaussian univariate model (UOI). For the MvOI an estimate of the forecast error statistics is made by Monte Carlo techniques from an ensemble of model forecasts. An important advantage of using an ensemble of ocean states is that it provides a natural way to estimate cross-covariances between the fields of different physical variables constituting the model state vector, at the same time incorporating the model's dynamical and thermodynamical constraints. The robustness of the error covariance estimates as well as the analyses has been established by comparing multiple populations of the ensemble. Temperature observations from the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean (TAO) array have been assimilated in this study. Data assimilation experiments are validated with a large independent set of subsurface observations of salinity, zonal velocity and temperature. The performance of the UOI and MvOI is similar in temperature. The salinity and velocity fields are greatly improved in the MvOI, as evident from the analyses of the rms differences between these fields and independent observations. The MvOI assimilation is found to improve upon the control (no assimilation) run in generating water masses with properties close to those observed, while the UOI fails to maintain the temperature-salinity relationship. The feasibility of representing a reduced error subspace through empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) is discussed and a method proposed to substitute the local noise-like variability by a simple model. While computationally efficient, this method produces results only slightly inferior to the MvOI with the full set of EOFs. An assimilation scheme with a multivariate forecast error model has the capability to simultaneously process observations of different types. This was tested using temperature data and synthetic salinity observations. The resulting subsurface structures both in temperature and salinity are the closest to the observed, while the currents structure is maintained in dynamically consistent manner

Impact of Aquarius and SMAP Sea Surface Salinity Observations on Seasonal Predictions of the 2015 El Nino

We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on dynamical ENSO forecasts for the big 2015 El Nino event. From March to June 2015, the availability of two overlapping satellite SSS instruments, Aquarius and SMAP, allows a unique opportunity to compare and contrast coupled forecasts generated with the benefit of these two satellite SSS observation types. Four distinct experiments are presented that include 1) freely evolving model SSS (i.e. no satellite SSS), relaxation to 2) climatological SSS (i.e. WOA13 (World Ocean Atlas 2013) SSS), 3) Aquarius and 4) SMAP initialization. Coupled hindcasts are generated from these initial conditions for March 2015. These forecasts are then validated against observations and evaluated with respect to the observed El Nino development

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2017 July Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

The GMAO seasonal forecast is produced from coupled model integrations that are initialized every five days, with seven additional ensemble members generated by coupled model breeding and initialized on the date closest to the beginning of the month. The main components of the AOGCM are the GEOS-5 atmospheric model, the MOM4 ocean model, and CICE sea ice model. Forecast fields were re-gridded to the passive microwave grid for averaging

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2017: June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

The GMAO seasonal forecast is produced from coupled model integrations that are initialized every five days, with seven additional ensemble members generated by coupled model breeding and initialized on the date closest to the beginning of the month. The main components of the AOGCM are the GEOS-5 atmospheric model, the MOM4 ocean model, and CICE sea ice model. Forecast fields were re-gridded to the passive microwave grid for averaging

NASA GMAO GEOS S2S Prediction System: Metrics, Post-Processing and Products

In this presentation we present an overview of the GMAO Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Prediction System, current users and products, and methods for validation and evaluation of the system. Methods for evaluation include baseline evaluations metrics, the ability to simulate key modes of variability, and evaluation of new development areas

Genotype-phenotype correlations in SCN8A-related disorders reveal prognostic and therapeutic implications

We report detailed functional analyses and genotype-phenotype correlations in 392 individuals carrying disease-causing variants in SCN8A, encoding the voltage-gated Na+ channel Nav1.6, with the aim of describing clinical phenotypes related to functional effects. Six different clinical subgroups were identified: Group 1, benign familial infantile epilepsy (n = 15, normal cognition, treatable seizures); Group 2, intermediate epilepsy (n = 33, mild intellectual disability, partially pharmaco-responsive); Group 3, developmental and epileptic encephalopathy (n = 177, severe intellectual disability, majority pharmaco-resistant); Group 4, generalized epilepsy (n = 20, mild to moderate intellectual disability, frequently with absence seizures); Group 5, unclassifiable epilepsy (n = 127); and Group 6, neurodevelopmental disorder without epilepsy (n = 20, mild to moderate intellectual disability). Those in Groups 1-3 presented with focal or multifocal seizures (median age of onset: 4 months) and focal epileptiform discharges, whereas the onset of seizures in patients with generalized epilepsy was later (median: 42 months) with generalized epileptiform discharges. We performed functional studies expressing missense variants in ND7/23 neuroblastoma cells and primary neuronal cultures using recombinant tetrodotoxin-insensitive human Nav1.6 channels and whole-cell patch-clamping. Two variants causing developmental and epileptic encephalopathy showed a strong gain-of-function (hyperpolarizing shift of steady-state activation, strongly increased neuronal firing rate) and one variant causing benign familial infantile epilepsy or intermediate epilepsy showed a mild gain-of-function (defective fast inactivation, less increased firing). In contrast, all three variants causing generalized epilepsy induced a loss-of-function (reduced current amplitudes, depolarizing shift of steady-state activation, reduced neuronal firing). Functional effects were known for 170 individuals. All 136 individuals carrying a functionally tested gain-of-function variant had either focal (n = 97, Groups 1-3) or unclassifiable (n = 39) epilepsy, whereas 34 individuals with a loss-of-function variant had either generalized (n = 14), no (n = 11) or unclassifiable (n = 6) epilepsy; only three had developmental and epileptic encephalopathy. Computational modelling in the gain-of-function group revealed a significant correlation between the severity of the electrophysiological and clinical phenotypes. Gain-of-function variant carriers responded significantly better to sodium channel blockers than to other anti-seizure medications, and the same applied for all individuals in Groups 1-3. In conclusion, our data reveal clear genotype-phenotype correlations between age at seizure onset, type of epilepsy and gain- or loss-of-function effects of SCN8A variants. Generalized epilepsy with absence seizures is the main epilepsy phenotype of loss-of-function variant carriers and the extent of the electrophysiological dysfunction of the gain-of-function variants is a main determinant of the severity of the clinical phenotype in focal epilepsies. Our pharmacological data indicate that sodium channel blockers present a treatment option in SCN8A-related focal epilepsy with onset in the first year of life

Genotype-phenotype correlations in SCN8A-related disorders reveal prognostic and therapeutic implications

We report detailed functional analyses and genotype-phenotype correlations in 433 individuals carrying disease-causing variants in SCN8A, encoding the voltage-gated Na+ channel NaV1.6. Five different clinical subgroups could be identified: 1) Benign familial infantile epilepsy (BFIE) (n=17, normal cognition, treatable seizures), 2) intermediate epilepsy (n=36, mild ID, partially pharmacoresponsive), 3) developmental and epileptic encephalopathy (DEE, n=191, severe ID, majority pharmacoresistant), 4) generalized epilepsy (n=21, mild to moderate ID, frequently with absence seizures), and 5) affected individuals without epilepsy (n=25, mild to moderate ID). Groups 1-3 presented with early-onset (median: four months) focal or multifocal seizures and epileptic discharges, whereas the onset of seizures in group 4 was later (median: 39 months) with generalized epileptic discharges. The epilepsy was not classifiable in 143 individuals. We performed functional studies expressing missense variants in ND7/23 neuroblastoma cells and primary neuronal cultures using recombinant tetrodotoxin insensitive human NaV1.6 channels and whole-cell patch clamping. Two variants causing DEE showed a strong gain-of-function (GOF, hyperpolarising shift of steady-state activation, strongly increased neuronal firing rate), and one variant causing BFIE or intermediate epilepsy showed a mild GOF (defective fast inactivation, less increased firing). In contrast, all three variants causing generalized epilepsy induced a loss-of-function (LOF, reduced current amplitudes, depolarising shift of steady-state activation, reduced neuronal firing). Including previous studies, functional effects were known for 165 individuals. All 133 individuals carrying GOF variants had either focal (76, groups 1-3), or unclassifiable epilepsy (37), whereas 32 with LOF variants had either generalized (14), no (11) or unclassifiable (5) epilepsy; only two had DEE. Computational modeling in the GOF group revealed a significant correlation between the severity of the electrophysiological and clinical phenotypes. GOF variant carriers responded significantly better to sodium channel blockers (SCBs) than to other anti-seizure medications, and the same applied for all individuals of groups 1-3.In conclusion, our data reveal clear genotype-phenotype correlations between age at seizure onset, type of epilepsy and gain- or loss-of-function effects of SCN8A variants. Generalized epilepsy with absence seizures is the main epilepsy phenotype of LOF variant carriers and the extent of the electrophysiological dysfunction of the GOF variants is a main determinant of the severity of the clinical phenotype in focal epilepsies. Our pharmacological data indicate that SCBs present a therapeutic treatment option in early onset SCN8A-related focal epilepsy

Genotype-phenotype correlations in SCN8A-related disorders reveal prognostic and therapeutic implications

We report detailed functional analyses and genotype-phenotype correlations in 392 individuals carrying disease-causing variants in SCN8A, encoding the voltage-gated Na+ channel Na(v)1.6, with the aim of describing clinical phenotypes related to functional effects. Six different clinical subgroups were identified: Group 1, benign familial infantile epilepsy (n = 15, normal cognition, treatable seizures); Group 2, intermediate epilepsy (n = 33, mild intellectual disability, partially pharmaco-responsive); Group 3, developmental and epileptic encephalopathy (n = 177, severe intellectual disability, majority pharmaco-resistant); Group 4, generalized epilepsy (n = 20, mild to moderate intellectual disability, frequently with absence seizures); Group 5, unclassifiable epilepsy (n = 127); and Group 6, neurodevelopmental disorder without epilepsy (n = 20, mild to moderate intellectual disability). Those in Groups 1-3 presented with focal or multifocal seizures (median age of onset: 4 months) and focal epileptiform discharges, whereas the onset of seizures in patients with generalized epilepsy was later (median: 42 months) with generalized epileptiform discharges. We performed functional studies expressing missense variants in ND7/23 neuroblastoma cells and primary neuronal cultures using recombinant tetrodotoxin-insensitive human Na(v)1.6 channels and whole-cell patch-clamping. Two variants causing developmental and epileptic encephalopathy showed a strong gain-of-function (hyperpolarizing shift of steady-state activation, strongly increased neuronal firing rate) and one variant causing benign familial infantile epilepsy or intermediate epilepsy showed a mild gain-of-function (defective fast inactivation, less increased firing). In contrast, all three variants causing generalized epilepsy induced a loss-of-function (reduced current amplitudes, depolarizing shift of steady-state activation, reduced neuronal firing). Functional effects were known for 170 individuals. All 136 individuals carrying a functionally tested gain-of-function variant had either focal (n = 97, Groups 1-3) or unclassifiable (n = 39) epilepsy, whereas 34 individuals with a loss-of-function variant had either generalized (n = 14), no (n = 11) or unclassifiable (n = 6) epilepsy; only three had developmental and epileptic encephalopathy. Computational modelling in the gain-of-function group revealed a significant correlation between the severity of the electrophysiological and clinical phenotypes. Gain-of-function variant carriers responded significantly better to sodium channel blockers than to other anti-seizure medications, and the same applied for all individuals in Groups 1-3. In conclusion, our data reveal clear genotype-phenotype correlations between age at seizure onset, type of epilepsy and gain- or loss-of-function effects of SCN8A variants. Generalized epilepsy with absence seizures is the main epilepsy phenotype of loss-of-function variant carriers and the extent of the electrophysiological dysfunction of the gain-of-function variants is a main determinant of the severity of the clinical phenotype in focal epilepsies. Our pharmacological data indicate that sodium channel blockers present a treatment option in SCN8A-related focal epilepsy with onset in the first year of life