Who acquires infection from whom and how? Disentangling multi-host and multi-mode transmission dynamics in the 'elimination' era

Multi-host infectious agents challenge our abilities to understand, predict and manage disease dynamics. Within this, many infectious agents are also able to use, simultaneously or sequentially, multiple modes of transmission. Furthermore, the relative importance of different host species and modes can itself be dynamic, with potential for switches and shifts in host range and/ or transmission mode in response to changing selective pressures, such as those imposed by disease control interventions. The epidemiology of such multi-host, multi-mode infectious agents thereby can involve a multi-faceted community of definitive and intermediate/secondary hosts or vectors, often together with infectious stages in the environment, all of which may represent potential targets, as well as specific challenges, particularly where disease elimination is proposed. Here, we explore, focusing on examples fromboth human and animal pathogen systems, why and how we should aim to disentangle and quantify the relative importance of multi-host multi-mode infectious agent transmission dynamics under contrasting conditions, and ultimately, how this can be used to help achieve efficient and effective disease control. This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'

Rodents as natural hosts of zoonotic Schistosoma species and hybrids: an epidemiological and evolutionary perspective from West Africa

The complex multi-host disease dynamics of schistosomiasis and Schistosoma spp., including the emergence of zoonotic parasite hybrids, remain largely unexplored in West Africa. We elucidated the role of wild small mammals as reservoir for zoonotic Schistosoma species and hybrids in endemic areas of Senegal. We identified Schistosoma mansoni, Schistosoma bovis, and a Schistosoma haematobium/S. bovis hybrid, with local prevalence in wild rodents ranging from 1.9% to 28.6%. Our findings indicate that rodents may be an important local reservoir for zoonotic schistosomiasis in endemic areas of West Africa, amplifying transmission to humans and acting as natural definitive hosts of schistosome hybrids

Multi-agent Electricity Markets and Smart Grids Simulation with Connection to Real Physical Resources

The increasing penetration of distributed energy sources, mainly based on renewable generation, calls for an urgent emergence of novel advanced methods to deal with the associated problems. The consensus behind smart grids (SGs) as one of the most promising solutions for the massive integration of renewable energy sources in power systems has led to the development of several prototypes that aim at testing and validating SG methodologies. The urgent need to accommodate such resources require alternative solutions. This chapter presents a multi-agent based SG simulation platform connected to physical resources, so that realistic scenarios can be simulated. The SG simulator is also connected to the Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets, which provides a solid framework for the simulation of electricity markets. The cooperation between the two simulation platforms provides huge studying opportunities under different perspectives, resulting in an important contribution to the fields of transactive energy, electricity markets, and SGs. A case study is presented, showing the potentialities for interaction between players of the two ecosystems: a SG operator, which manages the internal resources of a SG, is able to participate in electricity market negotiations to trade the necessary amounts of power to fulfill the needs of SG consumers.This work has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement N. 641794 (project DREAM-GO). It has also received FEDER Funds through the COMPETE program and National Funds through FCT under the project UID/EEA/00760/2013. The authors gratefully acknowledge the valuable contribution of Bruno Canizes, Daniel Paiva, Gabriel Santos and Marco Silva to the work presented in the chapter.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Is 8:30 a.m. Still Too Early to Start School? A 10:00 a.m. School Start Time Improves Health and Performance of Students Aged 13-16.

While many studies have shown the benefits of later school starts, including better student attendance, higher test scores, and improved sleep duration, few have used starting times later than 9:00 a.m. Here we report on the implementation and impact of a 10 a.m. school start time for 13 to 16-year-old students. A 4-year observational study using a before-after-before (A-B-A) design was carried out in an English state-funded high school. School start times were changed from 8:50 a.m. in study year 0, to 10 a.m. in years 1-2, and then back to 8:50 a.m. in year 3. Measures of student health (absence due to illness) and academic performance (national examination results) were used for all students. Implementing a 10 a.m. start saw a decrease in student illness after 2 years of over 50% (p < 0.0005 and effect size: Cohen's d = 1.07), and reverting to an 8:50 a.m. start reversed this improvement, leading to an increase of 30% in student illness (p < 0.0005 and Cohen's d = 0.47). The 10:00 a.m. start was associated with a 12% increase in the value-added number of students making good academic progress (in standard national examinations) that was significant (<0.0005) and equivalent to 20% of the national benchmark. These results show that changing to a 10:00 a.m. high school start time can greatly reduce illness and improve academic performance. Implementing school start times later than 8:30 a.m., which may address the circadian delay in adolescents' sleep rhythms more effectively for evening chronotypes, appears to have few costs and substantial benefits

Evaluating and mitigating the potential indirect effect of COVID-19 on control programmes for seven neglected tropical diseases: a modelling study

BACKGROUND: In line with movement restrictions and physical distancing essential for the control of the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO recommended postponement of all neglected tropical disease (NTD) control activities that involve community-based surveys, active case finding, and mass drug administration in April, 2020. Following revised guidance later in 2020, and after interruptions to NTD programmes of varying lengths, NTD programmes gradually restarted in the context of an ongoing pandemic. However, ongoing challenges and service gaps have been reported. This study aimed to evaluate the potential effect of the programmatic interruptions and strategies to mitigate this effect. METHODS: For seven NTDs, namely soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis, and human African trypanosomiasis, we used mathematical transmission models to simulate the effect of programme interruptions on the dynamics of each of these diseases in different endemic settings. We also explored the potential benefit of implementing mitigation strategies, primarily in terms of minimising the delays to control targets. FINDINGS: We show that the effect of the COVID-19-induced interruption in terms of delay to achieving elimination goals might in some cases be much longer than the duration of the interruption. For schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis, a mean delay of 2-3 years for a 1-year interruption is predicted in areas of highest prevalence. We also show that these delays can largely be mitigated by measures such as additional mass drug administration or enhanced case-finding. INTERPRETATION: The COVID-19 pandemic has brought infectious disease control to the forefront of global consciousness. It is essential that the NTDs, so long neglected in terms of research and financial support, are not overlooked, and remain a priority in health service planning and funding. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Medical Research Council, and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office

Mini-FLOTAC as an alternative, non-invasive diagnostic tool for Schistosoma mansoni and other trematode infections in wildlife reservoirs

Schistosomiasis and food-borne trematodiases are not only of major public health concern, but can also have profound implications for livestock production and wildlife conservation. The zoonotic, multi-host nature of many digenean trematodes is a significant challenge for disease control programmes in endemic areas. However, our understanding of the epidemiological role that animal reservoirs, particularly wild hosts, may play in the transmission of zoonotic trematodiases suffers a dearth of information, with few, if any, standardised, reliable diagnostic tests available. We combined qualitative and quantitative data derived from post-mortem examinations, coprological analyses using the Mini-FLOTAC technique, and molecular tools to assess parasite community composition and the validity of non-invasive methods to detect trematode infections in 89 wild Hubert’s multimammate mice (Mastomys huberti) from northern Senegal

'Magic coins' and 'magic squares': the discovery of astrological sigils in the Oldenburg Letters

Enclosed in a 1673 letter to Henry Oldenburg were two drawings of a series of astrological sigils, coins and amulets from the collection of Strasbourg mathematician Julius Reichelt (1637–1719). As portrayals of particular medieval and early modern sigils are relatively rare, this paper will analyse the role of these medals in medieval and early modern medicine, the logic behind their perceived efficacy, and their significance in early modern astrological and cabalistic practice. I shall also demonstrate their change in status in the late seventeenth century from potent magical healing amulets tied to the mysteries of the heavens to objects kept in a cabinet for curiosos. The evolving perception of the purpose of sigils mirrored changing early modern beliefs in the occult influences of the heavens upon the body and the natural world, as well as the growing interests among virtuosi in collecting, numismatics and antiquities

Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence.

Emerging evidence suggests that contact tracing has had limited success in the UK in reducing the R number across the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate potential pitfalls and areas for improvement by extending an existing branching process contact tracing model, adding diagnostic testing and refining parameter estimates. Our results demonstrate that reporting and adherence are the most important predictors of programme impact but tracing coverage and speed plus diagnostic sensitivity also play an important role. We conclude that well-implemented contact tracing could bring small but potentially important benefits to controlling and preventing outbreaks, providing up to a 15% reduction in R. We reaffirm that contact tracing is not currently appropriate as the sole control measure