2035: Paths towards a sustainable EU economy: Sustainable transitions and the potential of eco-innovation for jobs and economic development in EU eco-industries 2035

This brochure presents an overview of the four scenarios developed by the foresight study on transitions towards a sustainable economy along with a brief presentation of the study process and conclusions.JRC.DDG.02-Foresight and Behavioural Insight

The Future of Customs in the EU 2040: Results from a Real-time Delphi survey

A Real-time Delphi survey was carried out within the project The Future of Customs in the EU 2040: a foresight study performed by the European Commission Joint Research Centre on behalf of the European Commission's Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union (DG TAXUD). The Real-time Delphi survey method is a structured expert survey methodology used to gather opinions on different possible developments in the long-term future on a given topic. This type of surveys is a useful way to elicit, collect and synthesise the opinions of a large group of experts and to give ideas to start a debate. In the survey the participants were asked to react to 16 statements formulated as if they were taking place in the year 2040. They cover different issues related to customs, such as the role of customs, trade, digital and technological development, human resources, and corruption and fraud.JRC.I.2-Foresight, Modelling, Behavioural Insights & Design for Polic

Textiles and Clothing Manufacturing: Vision for 2025 and Actions Needed

This project is set in the context of the European industrial policy objective declared in 2010 to bring the share of industry in EU GDP from 15 to 20 per cent by 2020. It applies the Industrial Landscape Vision 2025 (ILV2025), a forward looking tool developed in a previous JRC foresight study and endorsed by DG GROW and its Task Force on advanced manufacturing. This tool provides a generic model of industry in Europe 10 years from now. The main objective of the project is to understand the long-term needs and challenges faced by European industry, to develop a vision for identifying key opportunities and challenges, and to develop potential responses by industry actors and policy makers.JRC.I.2-Foresight, Behavioural Insights and Design for Polic

Forward-looking reflection on the future of EU environmental policy and the 2050 sustainability transition

The ultimate goal of EU environmental policies is spelled out in the title and vision of EU’s 7th Environment Action Programme (EAP): ‘Living well, within the limits of our planet’. The Commission considers that this vision continues to be valid and fully in line with the UN Agenda 2030. However, in spite of the EU’s ambitious policy action the achievement of the 7th EAP vision is greatly challenged. All indicators show that the Earth is facing an unprecedented ecological crisis and that many planetary boundaries have already been crossed: the economic and societal development witnessed over the past century has also caused unprecedented environmental degradation. In this context, three services of the European Commission (DG ENV, the Joint Research Centre and DG RTD) and the European Environment Agency joined their efforts to run an inclusive and participatory forward-looking process to support the reflection on the future of EU environmental policies. This process focussed on three priority themes: 1. Consumption and lifestyles 2. Sustainable food systems 3. Future of industry These three themes were addressed in a foresight approach through three dedicated one-day workshops and generated a number of common conclusions: • The need for a politically agreed 2050 vision. • The need to adopt a systems approach to policy making • The realisation of the important role of citizens • The need to help businesses adopt truly sustainable business models • The importance of ensuring transparency and traceability of products throughout their life cycle • The need to take an integrated approach to the environmental challenges industry is facing • The need for an integrated policy covering food safety, security and sustainability to ensure the sustainability of the EU food system. • The realisation that EU sustainability and global sustainability go hand in hand.JRC.I.2-Foresight, Modelling, Behavioural Insights & Design for Polic

Key water management issues for the sustainable development of the Danube River Basin

This report documents the process that was implemented in a workshop held in October 27-28, 2016 at the Representation of the European Commission, in Budapest, with a group of policy-makers, academics and business representatives from the Danube region. The workshop addressed challenges in the Danube River Basin in an integrated and cross-cutting perspective, taking into account the interdependencies between various policy priorities, and making use of a set of extreme, broad socioeconomic and political scenarios.JRC.I.2-Foresight, Behavioural Insights and Design for Polic

A game for all seasons: lessons and learnings from the JRC’s scenario exploration system

The European Commission Joint Research Centre’s (JRC) Scenario Exploration System (SES) is a foresight gaming system developed to facilitate the application of futures thinking to policy-making. It was originally geared at engaging EU policy-makers with scenarios in a facilitated process with a low learning curve. Specifically, the SES was designed to help participants, in less than three hours, to engage in systemic thinking with a long-term perspective and to explore alternative futures on specific issues and themes. When applied in various contexts, the SES proved to have a broader range of applications, which led to communities of practice emerging around the tool. Successful responses to various requests to apply the tool beyond its original focus demonstrated the versatility of the SES. Specifically, we discovered its ability to accommodate a large array of scenarios to discuss a very diverse range of issues. The experience accumulated through several adaptations of the SES allows the analysis of the various strengths and weaknesses of the tool as a platform for futures thinking and sharing more broadly the know-how for the creation and application of new versions. Ultimately, this article seeks to contribute a series of design suggestions for futures practitioners seeking to develop a playful mode of interaction with scenarios, or those seeking to repurpose the original SES system for use in their own project

The JRC Scenario Exploration System - From Study to Serious Game

[[abstract]]This report describes how the European Commission engaged in developing a serious game in order to engage stakeholders with foresight scenarios created to support the EU policy-making process. Four scenarios were created through a classic scenario building methodology (2X2 matrix), describing possible transitions towards a more sustainable future for the EU in 2035. These scenarios were used as a basis to design a serious game to help players engage in systemic thinking, discover and create alternative futures, and create novel engagements between stakeholders. The game was developed over a four month period and entailed running 10 prototyping sessions involving players from various services of the European Commission and other organizations (industry, civil society, academia, etc.). A system was developed to be able to harvest the stories created during the gaming sessions as a basis for de-briefing, further discussions and strategic analyses after the game. Ultimately, the game has demonstrated its usefulness and value for both players and organizers, and our reflections on the development process offer insights as to game design strategies and how educational outcomes and principles can be effectively mapped onto game mechanics

Food safety and nutrition - how to prepare for a challenging future? New approaches for using scenarios for policy-making

Scenarios are a well-established methodology used in foresight. In this paper a three-phased process is described to maximise relevance for policy-making of a set of scenarios. As a first step, four scenarios were developed as a basis for the assessment of the ability of the EU's legislative and policy framework on food safety and nutrition to deal with possible future challenges. In the second step the scenarios were analysed by stakeholders to identify the scenario-specific challenge profiles in terms of food safety and nutrition. Policy and regulatory responses were formulated towards improving the fitness of the EU food framework for the future. The pertinence and realism of this exercise generated questions about how the role of the EU policy maker in this area could develop. To answer this question, in a third step, a new tailor-made approach was developed, allowing exploring and testing policy-making under diverse circumstances. The serious gaming platform, the Joint Research Centre's Scenario Exploration System, was adapted and applied with a number of selected stakeholders. Both approaches, each on their own, demonstrated the power of scenarios for simulating realistic policy circumstances. In combination, the process allowed to examine, in systemic way, different aspects of future policies and fostering a more forward-looking mind-set to inform practical policy-making.JRC.I.2-Foresight, Behavioural Insights and Design for Polic

Using Scenarios to Assess Policy Mixes for Resource Efficiency and Eco-Innovation in Different Fiscal Policy Frameworks

There is no longer any doubt that the European Union needs to manage a transition towards a sustainable economy and society. The complexity of such an enterprise is creating major challenges that require a future oriented systemic approach, looking at the EU economy and society as a whole, and going beyond current agendas and policies. The purpose of the JRC foresight study “2035: Paths towards a sustainable EU economy” was to explore how this could be possible. Resource efficiency was at the core of the reflection. This created a context where the fiscal framework was perceived by the experts involved as essential in driving (or hindering) the evolution towards a more sustainable future. Societal values (individualistic or collaborative) were selected as the other axis around which to construct four scenarios. A large number of other drivers of change were taken into account to construct scenarios of a sufficient depth and detail to generate a systemic understanding. The scenarios were used in an original way to help experts identify which policy mixes would be best adapted to push each scenario towards a more sustainable future, while respecting its own logic and constraints. For each scenario, 6 policy domains considered the most relevant were selected among more than 50. Research and innovation, new business models and education were considered important for all four scenarios. The other domains were natural resources management, regulation, ethics, employment, transparency, governance, social protection, and systems integration. The study illustrates how powerful a policy framework which is fiscally supportive of environmental sustainability can be in supporting resource efficiency and that this can be achieved in very different ways depending on the prevailing social values. It also shows how a combination of actions in other policy areas can be used to drive sustainability further. In sum, this work illustrates how the creative use of foresight can help design policy mixes that can open the way to very different paths towards a sustainable future

Optimisation de tests sérologiques de dépistage (Intérêts et limites de la séro-épidémiologie des maladies infectieuses d'origine hydrique)

Les maladies infectieuses constituent la principale cause de mortalité et de morbidité dans le monde. Selon l'OMS, les maladies liées à l'eau tuent 3,4 millions d'individus chaque année. Les sérologies induites par une exposition à un microorganisme constituent un bio-marqueur d'exposition. A des fins de surveillance ou de dépistage, la réalisation d'une enquête séro-épidémiologique peut permettre de suivre l'évolution de l'incidence d'une maladie infectieuse. L'objectif de notre travail est de mettre au point et tester un outil simple, rapide, économique et de terrain de diagnostic sérologique d'infections d'origine hydrique pour en doter la séro-épidémiologie. Pour des raisons techniques, financières et médicales, le microorganisme pathogène retenu comme modèle est le schistosome. Les techniques sérologiques choisies sont l'ELISA et l'agglutination et reposent sur l'utilisation de billes de latex respectivement magnétiques et colorées. Le milieu biologique analysé peut être le sérum ou le sang total. Des sérums anti-schistosome de référence (humain et lapin) permettent la mise au point en laboratoire des conditions optimales de couplage d'antigènes de schistosome et de dosage des sérums humains. La qualité de ces dosages est ensuite évaluée sur des prélèvements humains sanguins issus de 51 adultes indemnes de bilharziose et vivant en France, et de 580 enfants et adolescents, malades ou indemnes, vivant en zone d'endémie au Sud-Est et au Nord du Togo. Pour l'ensemble de ces prélèvements, le résultat des dosages mis au point est comparé au résultat de la recherche des œufs dans les urines (" gold standard ") et au résultat de l'hémagglutination de Fumouze (test sérologique de référence). Les essais en laboratoire montrent que l'ELISA et l'agglutination sur billes de latex sont sensibles et spécifiques. Les essais en population de comparaison entre indiquent que ces dosages sont assez spécifiques mais peu sensibles mais ces dosages sont comparables à l'hémagglutination de Fumouze : ils sont aussi sensibles et spécifiques. Le dosage en sang total est moins performant que le dosage sur sérum. L'amélioration des deux techniques mises au point est encore nécessaire. Toutefois, l'application de ces techniques à l'analyse sérologique d'autres maladies infectieuses, liées à l'eau ou non, est envisageable. Ces techniques de " basse technologie " présentent un grand intérêt dans le cadre de campagnes de dépistage ou de surveillance de maladies infectieuses, lorsque les ressources financières et pratiques sont limitéesMONTPELLIER-BU Pharmacie (341722105) / SudocPARIS-BIUP (751062107) / SudocSudocFranceF