Influenza pandemic: perception of risk and individual precautions in a general population. Cross sectional study

BACKGROUND: An influenza pandemic may have considerable impact on health and societal functioning. The aim of this study was to explore people's reflections on the consequences of a pandemic. METHODS: Cross-sectional web-based survey of 1,168 Norwegians aged 16–82 years. The main outcome measures were answers to questions about a potential pandemic ("serious influenza epidemic"): statements about personal precautions including stockpiling Tamiflu(®), the perceived number of fatalities, the perceived effects of Tamiflu(®), the sources of information about influenza and trust in public information. RESULTS: While 80% of the respondents stated that they would be "careful about personal hygiene", only a few would stay away from work (2%), or move to an isolated place (4%). While 27% of respondents were uncertain about the number of fatalities during an influenza pandemic, 48% thought it would be lower than the estimate of Norwegian health authorities (0.05%–1%) and only 3% higher. At least half of the respondents thought that Tamiflu(® )might reduce the mortality risk, but less than 1% had personally purchased the drug. The great majority had received their information from the mass media, and only 9% directly from health authorities. Still the majority (65%) trusted information from the authorities, and only 9% reported overt distrust. CONCLUSION: In Norway, considerable proportions of people seem to consider the mortality risk during a pandemic less than health authorities do. Most people seem to be prepared to take some, but not especially disruptive, precautions

Future costs in cost-effectiveness analysis: an empirical assessment

To assess the usage of cost-utility analysis (CUA) in oral health interventions and to evaluate the methods used and the reporting quality of CUA in publications on oral health interventions

Detecting spatio-temporal mortality clusters of European countries by sex and ag

[EN] Background: Mortality decreased in European Union (EU) countries during the last century. Despite these similar trends, there are still considerable differences in the levels of mortality between Eastern and Western European countries. Sub-group analysis of mortality in Europe for different age and sex groups is common, however to our knowledge a spatio-temporal methodology as in this study has not been applied to detect significant spatial dependence and interaction with time. Thus, the objective of this paper is to quantify the dynamics of mortality in Europe and detect significant clusters of mortality between European countries, applying spatio-temporal methodology. In addition, the joint evolution between the mortality of European countries and their neighbours over time was studied. Methods: The spatio-temporal methodology used in this study takes into account two factors: time and the geographical location of countries and, consequently, the neighbourhood relationships between them. This methodology was applied to 26 European countries for the period 1990-2012. Results: Principally, for people older than 64 years two significant clusters were obtained: one of high mortality formed by Eastern European countries and the other of low mortality composed of Western countries. In contrast, for ages below or equal to 64 years only the significant cluster of high mortality formed by Eastern European countries was observed. In addition, the joint evolution between the 26 European countries and their neighbours during the period 1990-2012 was confirmed. For this reason, it can be said that mortality in EU not only depends on differences in the health systems, which are a subject to national discretion, but also on supra-national developments. Conclusions: This paper proposes statistical tools which provide a clear framework for the successful implementation of development public policies to help the UE meet the challenge of rethinking its social model (Social Security and health care) and make it sustainable in the medium term.The authors are grateful for the financial support provided by the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, project MTM2013-45381-P. Adina Iftimi gratefully acknowledges financial support from the MECyD (Ministerio de Educacion, Cultura y Deporte, Spain) Grant FPU12/04531. Francisco Montes is grateful for the financial support provided by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, project MTM2016-78917-R. The research by Patricia Carracedo and Ana Debon has been supported by a grant from the Mapfre Foundation.Carracedo-Garnateo, P.; Debón Aucejo, AM.; Iftimi, A.; Montes-Suay, F. (2018). Detecting spatio-temporal mortality clusters of European countries by sex and ag. 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Increase of mild disability in Japanese elders: A seven year follow-up cohort study

BACKGROUND: Japan has the highest life expectancy in the world. In a 2002 census government report, 18.5% of Japanese were 65 years old and over and 7.9% were over 75 years old. In this ageing population, the increase in the number of dependent older persons, especially those with mild levels of disability, has had a significant impact on the insurance budget. This study examines the increase of mild disability and its related factors. METHODS: All community-dwelling residents aged 65 and over and without functional decline (n = 1560), of Omishima town, Japan, were assessed in 1996 using a simple illustrative measure, "the Typology of the Aged with Illustrations" to establish a baseline level of function and were followed annually until 2002. The prevalence and incidence of low to severe disability, and their association with chronic conditions present at the commencement of the study, was analyzed. A polychotomous logistic regression model was constructed to estimate the association of each chronic condition with two levels of disability. RESULTS: An increase in mild functional decline was more prevalent than severe functional decline. The accumulation of mild disability was more prominent in women. The major chronic conditions associated with mild disability were chronic arthritis and diabetes in women, and cerebrovascular accident and malignancy in men. CONCLUSION: This study showed a tendency for mild disability prevalence to increase in Japanese elders, and some risk factors were identified. As mild disability increasingly prevalent, these findings will help determine priorities for its prevention in Japanese elders

The impact of healthcare costs in the last year of life and in all life years gained on the cost-effectiveness of cancer screening

It is under debate whether healthcare costs related to death and in life years gained (LysG) due to life saving interventions should be included in economic evaluations. We estimated the impact of including these costs on cost-effectiveness of cancer screening. We obtained health insurance, home care, nursing homes, and mortality data for 2.1 million inhabitants in the Netherlands in 1998–1999. Costs related to death were approximated by the healthcare costs in the last year of life (LastYL), by cause and age of death. Costs in LYsG were estimated by calculating the healthcare costs in any life year. We calculated the change in cost-effectiveness ratios (CERs) if unrelated healthcare costs in the LastYL or in LYsG would be included. Costs in the LastYL were on average 33% higher for persons dying from cancer than from any cause. Including costs in LysG increased the CER by €4040 in women, and by €4100 in men. Of these, €660 in women, and €890 in men, were costs in the LastYL. Including unrelated healthcare costs in the LastYL or in LYsG will change the comparative cost-effectiveness of healthcare programmes. The CERs of cancer screening programmes will clearly increase, with approximately €4000. However, because of the favourable CER's, including unrelated healthcare costs will in general have limited policy implications

Perceived Threat, Risk Perception, and Efficacy Beliefs Related to SARS and Other (Emerging) Infectious Diseases: Results of an International Survey

PURPOSE: To study the levels of perceived threat, perceived severity, perceived vulnerability, response efficacy, and self-efficacy for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and eight other diseases in five European and three Asian countries. METHOD: A computer-assisted phone survey was conducted among 3,436 respondents. The questionnaire focused on perceived threat, vulnerability, severity, response efficacy, and self-efficacy related to SARS and eight other diseases. RESULTS: Perceived threat of SARS in case of an outbreak in the country was higher than that of other diseases. Perceived vulnerability of SARS was at an intermediate level and perceived severity was high compared to other diseases. Perceived threat for SARS varied between countries in Europe and Asia with a higher perceived severity of SARS in Europe and a higher perceived vulnerability in Asia. Response efficacy and self-efficacy for SARS were higher in Asia compared to Europe. In multiple linear regression analyses, country was strongly associated with perceived threat. CONCLUSIONS: The relatively high perceived threat for SARS indicates that it is seen as a public health risk and offers a basis for communication in case of an outbreak. The strong association between perceived threat and country and different regional patterns require further researc