Post-Newtonian evolution of massive black hole triplets in galactic nuclei - IV. Implications for LISA

Coalescing massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) of 10(4-7) M-circle dot, forming in the aftermath of galaxy mergers, are primary targets of the space mission LISA, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna. An assessment of LISA detection prospects requires an estimate of the abundance and properties of MBHBs that form and evolve during the assembly of cosmic structures. To this aim, we employ a semi-analytic model to follow the co-evolution of MBHBs within their host galaxies. We identify three major evolutionary channels driving the binaries to coalescence: two standard paths along which the binary evolution is driven by interactions with the stellar and/or gaseous environment, and a novel channel where MBHB coalescence occurs during the interaction with a third black hole. For each channel, we follow the orbital evolution ofMBHBs with physically motivated models that include a self-consistent treatment of the orbital eccentricity. We find that LISA will detect between approximate to 25 and approximate to 75 events per year depending on the seed model. We show that triple-induced coalescences can range from a few detected events up to similar to 30 per cent of the total detected mergers. Moreover, even if the standard gas/stars-driven evolutionary channels should fail and MBHBs were to stall, triple interactions would still occur as a result of the hierarchical nature of galaxy formation, resulting in about approximate to 10 to approximate to 20 LISA detections per year. Remarkably, triple interactions among the black holes can produce coalescing binaries with large eccentricities (greater than or similar to 0.9) upon entrance into the LISA band. This eccentricity will remain significant (similar to 0.1) also at merger, requiring suitable templates for parameter estimation. Keyword

Computation of stochastic background from extreme mass ratio inspiral populations for LISA

Extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs) are among the primary targets for the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). The extreme mass ratios of these systems result in relatively weak GW signals, that can be individually resolved only for cosmologically nearby sources (up to $z\approx2$). The incoherent piling up of the signal emitted by unresolved EMRIs generate a confusion noise, that can be formally treated as a stochastic GW background (GWB). In this paper, we estimate the level of this background considering a collection of astrophysically motivated EMRI models, spanning the range of uncertainties affecting EMRI formation. To this end, we employed the innovative Augmented Analytic Kludge waveforms and used the full LISA response function. For each model, we compute the GWB SNR and the number of resolvable sources. Compared to simplified computations of the EMRI signals from the literature, we find that for a given model the GWB SNR is lower by a factor of $\approx 2$ whereas the number of resolvable sources drops by a factor 3-to-5. Nonetheless, the vast majority of the models result in potentially detectable GWB which can also significantly contribute to the overall LISA noise budget in the 1-10 mHz frequency range

Advancing drought monitoring via feature extraction and multi-task learning algorithms

A drought is a slowly developing natural phenomenon that can occur in all climatic zones and can be defined as a temporary but significant decrease in water availability. Over the past three decades, the cost of droughts in Europe amounted to over 100 billion euros, with the recent summer droughts being unprecedented in the last 2,000 years. Although drought monitoring and management are extensively studied in the literature, capturing the evolution of drought dynamics, and associated impacts across different temporal and spatial scales remains a critical, unsolved challenge. In this work, we contribute with a Machine Learning procedure named FRIDA (FRamework for Index-based Drought Analysis) for the identification of impact-based drought indexes. FRIDA is a fully automated data-driven approach that relies on advanced feature extraction algorithms to identify relevant drought drivers from a pool of candidate hydro-meteorological predictors. The selected predictors are then combined into an index representing a surrogate of the drought conditions in the considered area, including either observed or simulated water deficits or remotely sensed information on crop status. Notably, FRIDA leverages multi-task learning algorithms to upscale the analysis over a large region where drought impacts might depend on diverse but potentially correlated drivers. FRIDA captures the heterogeneous features of the different sub-regions while efficiently using all available data and exploiting the commonalities across sub-regions. In this way, the accuracy of the resulting prediction benefits from a reduced uncertainty compared to training separate models for each sub-region. Several real-world examples will be used to provide a synthesis of recent applications of FRIDA in case studies featuring diverse hydroclimatic conditions and variable levels of data availability

Advanced European Re-Entry System Based on Inflatable Heat Shields: Detailed Design (EFESTO project)

The European Union H2020 EFESTO project is coordinated by DEIMOS Space with the end goals of improving the European TRL of Inflatable Heat Shields for re-entry vehicles (from 3 to 4/5) and paving the way towards further improvements (TRL 6 with a future In-Orbit Demonstrator, IOD). This paper presents the project objectives and the initial results of the detailed design of atmospheric entry missions based on the applications of advanced thermal protection systems implementing inflatable heat shields (flexible TPS and inflatable structures), according to aerothermodynamics constraints for future in-orbit demonstration. Placing the future IOD mission in the context of ongoing and future efforts in the European context is also one of the project goals. Two key applications, Mars Robotic Exploration and Reusable Small Launchers Upper Stages, have been identified. For the Mars Application, the robotic exploration mission class resulted in a 10 m diameter Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) class, combined with Supersonic Retro-Propulsion (SRP, activated about Mach 2.3) to deliver about 2800 kg of payload at MOLA +2 km. For the Earth Application, the VEGA upper stage (AVUM) has been selected as baseline case study. The current mission foresees a deorbiting from SSO orbit, a controlled entry phase (BC of about 30 kg/m2) and combines the use of a HIAD (4.5m diameter class) with parachutes and parafoil for Mid-Air-Capturing (MAR) with a helicopter. Beyond feasibility of the entry mission phase and system design with an inflated IAD, integration aspects have a key impact in the specific design solutions adopted, due to the nature of an inflatable heatshield. For both considered application cases feasible architectures are developed responding to the challenge of integrating the HIAD into the system in compliance with geometric and functional requirements. While the HIAD in folded state prior to inflation must fit in the available volume, it has limitations with respect to the density imposing a minimum cross section of the stowage volume. Simultaneously requirements with respect to the centre of gravity position during re-entry with an inflated HIAD must be respected for stability and controllability reasons. Other architectural considerations such as payload integration for the application on a launcher upper stage must be considered. Finally, heat loads constraints are considered for the trajectory and TPS deign choices due to important fluid-structure interactions. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 821801

Ultrastructural and spectrophotometric study on the effects of putative triggers on aortic valve interstitial cells in in vitro models simulating metastatic calcification.

Metastatic calcification of cardiac valves is a common complication in patients affected by chronic renal failure. In this study, primary bovine aortic valve interstitial cells (AVICs) were subjected to pro-calcific treatments consisting in cell stimulation with (i) elevated inorganic phosphate (Pi = 3mM), in order to simulate hyperphosphatemic conditions; (ii) bacterial endotoxin lipopolysaccharide (LPS), simulating direct effects by microbial agents; and (iii) conditioned media (CM) derived from cultures of either LPS-stimulated heterogenic macrophages (commercial murine RAW264.7 cells) or LPS-stimulated fresh allogeneic monocytes/macrophages (bCM), simulating consequent inflammatory responses, alone or combined. Compared to control cultures, spectrophotometric assays revealed shared treatment-dependent higher values of both calcium amounts and alkaline phosphatase activity for cultures involving the presence of elevated Pi. Ultrastructurally, shared peculiar pro-calcific degeneration patterns were exhibited by AVICs from the same cultures irrespectively of the applied treatment. Disappearance of all cytomembranes and concurrent formation of material showing positivity to Cuprolinic Blue and co-localizing with silver precipitation were followed by the outcropping of such a material, which transformed in layers outlining the dead cells. Subsequent budding of these layers resulted in the formation of bubbling bodies and concentrically laminated calcospherulae mirroring those in actual soft tissue calcification. In conclusion, the in vitro models employed appear to be reliable tools for simulating metastatic calcification and indicate that hyperphosphatemic-like conditions could trigger valve calcification per se, with LPS and allogeneic macrophage-derived secretory products acting as possible calcific enhancers via inflammatory responses

Elongated styloid process evaluation on digital panoramic radiograph in a North Italian population

The aim of this study is to evaluate the prevalence of elongated styloid process in digital panoramic radiographs in a North Italian population in relation to age, gender and side. This study was performed as a retrospective analysis on digital panoramic radiographs of 600 (271 males and 329 females) Italian patients between 6 and 87 years old. The styloid process length were measured using the measuring tool of Sidexis Software. It was measured from the point where it left the temporal bone plate to its tip. Styloid processes measuring more than 30 mm were considered elongated. Chi-squared and Fisher tests were used and the test is considered significant if the p-value is lower or equal to 0.05. Thirty-three per cent of the patients showed an elongated styloid process. Seventeen per cent were elongated on both right and left side, fifteen point nine per cent were elongated only in one side. The prevalence of elongated styloid process was high and a progressive increase of the elongation prevalence was found in older groups