Using Numerical Dynamic Programming to Compare Passive and Active Learning in the Adaptive Management of Nutrients in Shallow Lakes

This paper illustrates the use of dual/adaptive control methods to compare passive and active adaptive management decisions in the context of an ecosystem with a threshold effect. Using discrete-time dynamic programming techniques, we model optimal phosphorus loadings under both uncertainty about natural loadings and uncertainty regarding the critical level of phosphorus concentrations beyond which nutrient recycling begins. Active management is modeled by including the anticipated value of information (or learning) in the structure of the problem, and thus the agent can perturb the system (experiment), update beliefs, and learn about the uncertain parameter. Using this formulation, we define and value optimal experimentation both ex ante and ex post. Our simulation results show that experimentation is optimal over a large range of phosphorus concentration and belief space, though ex ante benefits are small. Furthermore, realized benefits may critically depend on the true underlying parameters of the problem.adaptive control, adaptive management, dynamic programming, value of experimentation, value of information, nonpoint source pollution, learning, decisions under uncertainty, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics

This paper shows that, with (partial) irreversibility, higher uncertainty reduces the impact effect of demand shocks on investment. Uncertainty increases real option values making firms more cautious when investing or disinvesting. This is confirmed both numerically for a model with a rich mix of adjustment costs, time-varying uncertainty, and aggregation over investment decisions and time, and also empirically for a panel of manufacturing firms. These cautionary effects of uncertainty are large %u2013 going from the lower quartile to the upper quartile of the uncertainty distribution typically halves the first year investment response to demand shocks. This implies the responsiveness of firms to any given policy stimulus may be much lower in periods of high uncertainty, such as after major shocks like OPEC I and 9/11.

Forest cover estimation in Ireland using radar remote sensing: a comparative analysis of forest cover assessment methodologies

Quantification of spatial and temporal changes in forest cover is an essential component of forest monitoring programs. Due to its cloud free capability, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is an ideal source of information on forest dynamics in countries with near-constant cloud-cover. However, few studies have investigated the use of SAR for forest cover estimation in landscapes with highly sparse and fragmented forest cover. In this study, the potential use of L-band SAR for forest cover estimation in two regions (Longford and Sligo) in Ireland is investigated and compared to forest cover estimates derived from three national (Forestry2010, Prime2, National Forest Inventory), one pan-European (Forest Map 2006) and one global forest cover (Global Forest Change) product. Two machine-learning approaches (Random Forests and Extremely Randomised Trees) are evaluated. Both Random Forests and Extremely Randomised Trees classification accuracies were high (98.1–98.5%), with differences between the two classifiers being minimal (<0.5%). Increasing levels of post classification filtering led to a decrease in estimated forest area and an increase in overall accuracy of SAR-derived forest cover maps. All forest cover products were evaluated using an independent validation dataset. For the Longford region, the highest overall accuracy was recorded with the Forestry2010 dataset (97.42%) whereas in Sligo, highest overall accuracy was obtained for the Prime2 dataset (97.43%), although accuracies of SAR-derived forest maps were comparable. Our findings indicate that spaceborne radar could aid inventories in regions with low levels of forest cover in fragmented landscapes. The reduced accuracies observed for the global and pan-continental forest cover maps in comparison to national and SAR-derived forest maps indicate that caution should be exercised when applying these datasets for national reporting

Investment, R&D and Financial Constraints in Britain and Germany

This paper tests for the importance of cash flow on investment in fixed capital and R&D using firm-level panel data in two countries between 1985 and 1994. For German firms, cash flow is not informative in simple econometric models of fixed investment or R&D. In identical specifications for British firms, cash flow is informative about investment, although not about the level of R&D spending conditional on the R&D participation decision. In the UK, we also find that investment is less sensitive to cash flow for R&Dperforming firms, and that cash flow predicts whether firms perform R&D or not. We confirm that these differences do not simply reflect a greater role for current cash flow in forecasting future sales. These results suggest that financial constraints are more significant in Britain, that they affect the decision to engage in R&D rather than the level of R&D spending by participants, and that consequently the British firms that do engage in R&D are a self-selected group where financing constraints tend to be less binding.Investment, R&D, cash flow, financial constraints, panel data

Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics

This paper shows that, with (partial) irreversibility, higher uncertainty reduces the impact effect of demand shocks on investment. Uncertainty increases real option values making firms more cautious when investing or disinvesting. This is confirmed both numerically for a model with a rich mix of adjustment costs, time-varying uncertainty, and aggregation over investment decisions and time, and also empirically for a panel of manufacturing firms. These cautionary effects of uncertainty are large - going from the lower quartile to the upper quartile of the uncertainty distribution typically halves the first year investment response to demand shocks. This implies the responsiveness of firms to any given policy stimulus may be much lower in periods of high uncertainty, such as after major shocks like OPEC I and 9/11.Investment, uncertainty, real options, panel data

Who pays business rates?

Non-domestic rates are a tax that is formally levied on the occupiers of nondomestic property in the United Kingdom. This does not imply that it is only the occupiers of business and other non-domestic property who are made worse off by the imposition of ‘business rates’. Some or all of the effective burden of nondomestic rates may be shifted backwards from the occupiers of business property to the owners of business property. This occurs if the rents that property owners can charge their tenants are reduced by the imposition of business rates. In this case, the total cost of occupying a business property (i.e. rent plus rates) is increased by less than the full amount of the non-domestic rates paid by occupiers, and part of the burden of business rates is borne by property owners in the form of lower rental income than they would otherwise have received. The effective incidence of non-domestic rates is then said to fall partly on property owners, and only partly on occupiers.

The Effects of Reflective Assessment on Student Achievement

Over the last decade alternative assessment strategies have become an important part of the debate regarding the reform and restructuring of American education. The purpose of assessment should be to improve student learning, which means it should be integral to the teaching and learning process. For this to occur, a seamlessness needs to exist between teaching, learning, and assessment through which students are empowered to take increased responsibility for their learning. Reflective assessment grows out of strong theoretical roots including ancient Greek thought, the philosophy of John Dewey, and cognitive constructivist learning theories. Reflective assessment is a formative process through which students can experience assessment as a part of learning, rather than as a separate evaluative process. This study was designed to investigate the effect of a metacognitive strategy on the mathematics achievement of fifth and sixth grade students. This was an experimental study that employed a posttest-only control group design. Students were randomly assigned to three treatment groups, two of which received identical mathematics curriculum, except for a reflective intervention with one group. It was the reflective assessment intervention that served as the independent variable in the study. The third group served as the control group, and received instruction in an alternate mathematics curriculum. An instrument was developed that was aligned with the mathematics lessons that were taught to the two experimental groups. This measure served as the dependent variable in the study. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the demographic nature of the sample. Analysis of variance and nonparametric procedures were used to analyze the data and to make inferences from it. These inferential statistics were also used to analyze the results of a retention test that was administered six weeks following the end of the study. A performance test was also administered at the end of the study to measure practical application of the concepts taught in the mathematics lessons. The data gathered revealed a statistically significant difference between the achievement of students who practiced the reflective strategy and the achievement of students in both the comparison and control groups. Students who practiced the reflective strategy also scored significantly higher on the retention test, which was areadministration of the posttest. On the performance assessment, which was a subjective measure, students in the reflective strategy group were more successful applying the concepts taught in the mathematics lessons than were students in the other two groups

Foreign Direct Investment in the City of Qingdao: Experiences of Chinese Workers in Foreign-Invested Enterprises, 1996 to 2009

The debate concerning whether foreign investment in developing nations benefits or exploits workers is a highly emotive and unresolved debate. This dissertation contributes to literature that explores the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on a host economy, more specifically on the experiences workers employed within foreign-invested enterprises in a developing nation. Amongst developing nations, China has absorbed the lion’s share of FDI throughout the 2000s and is therefore a sensible location to study the effects of FDI on a developing nation host economy. Given the variety in levels of economic development across China, we avoid errors of generalisation by targeting a specific location. Shandong is one of the most important – and understudied – provinces in China, contributing significantly to China’s economy and being the destination for an increasing share of China’s FDI; within Shandong, Qingdao is the most popular destination for FDI. Existing literature that explores the effects of FDI on host nation employees either takes a quantitative, macro-economic level approach, such as International Business literature, or uses qualitative methodology to give anecdotal evidence of worker experiences, such as in the globalisation and labour studies bodies of literature. We combine both these approaches to investigate the experiences of FIE employees in Qingdao. The key research findings are: a domination of South Korean, wholly foreign-owned enterprises targeting the relatively more labour-intensive manufacturing sectors from 1996 to 2006 in Qingdao, having implications in terms of FIE employment opportunities and human capital accumulation; a sharp decline in the size of the FIE workforce from 2007 to 2009, highlighting the potential problems a developing nation may face if it has a large concentration of ‘flexible’ foreign investments; and reports of a wide range of experiences of FIE employees engaged in more white-collar roles, including positive development opportunities and negative experiences of discrimination

A study of forty-three nursing homes in relation to the care of patients from mental hospitals.

Thesis (M.S.)--Boston Universit