Ocean ensemble forecasting. Part I: Ensemble Mediterranean winds from a Bayesian hierarchical model

A Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) is developed to estimate surface vector wind (SVW) fields and associated uncertainties over the Mediterranean Sea. The BHM–SVW incorporates data-stage inputs from analyses and forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and SVW retrievals from the QuikSCAT data record. The process-model stage of the BHM–SVW is based on a Rayleigh friction equation model for surface winds. Dynamical interpretations of posterior distributions of the BHM–SVW parameters are discussed. Ten realizations from the posterior distribution of the BHM–SVW are used to force the data-assimilation step of an experimental ensemble ocean forecast system for the Mediterranean Sea in order to create a set of ensemble initial conditions. The sequential data-assimilation method of the Mediterranean forecast system (MFS) is adapted to the ensemble implementation. Analyses of sample ensemble initial conditions for a single data-assimilation period in MFS are presented to demonstrate the multivariate impact of the BHM–SVW ensemble generation methodology. Ensemble initial-condition spread is quantified by computing standard deviations of ocean state variable fields over the ten ensemble members. The methodological findings in this article are of two kinds. From the perspective of statistical modelling, the process-model development is more closely related tophysicalbalances than inpreviousworkwithmodels for the SVW.Fromthe ocean forecast perspective, the generation of ocean ensemble initial conditions via BHM is shown to be practical for operational implementation in an ensemble ocean forecast system. Phenomenologically, ensemble spread generated via BHM–SVW occurs on ocean mesoscale time- and space-scales, in close association with strong synoptic-scale wind-forcing events. A companion article describes the impacts of the BHM–SVW ensemble method on the ocean forecast in comparisons with more traditional ensemble methods

Ocean ensemble forecasting. Part II: Mediterranean Forecast System response

This article analyzes the ocean forecast response to surface vector wind (SVW) distributions generated by a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) developed in Part I of this series. A new method for ocean ensemble forecasting (OEF), the socalled BHM-SVW-OEF, is described. BHM-SVW realizations are used to produce and force perturbations in the ocean state during 14 day analysis and 10 day forecast cycles of the Mediterranean Forecast System (MFS). The BHM-SVW-OEF ocean response spread is amplified at the mesoscales and in the pycnocline of the eddy field. The new method is compared with an ensemble response forced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system (EEPS) surface winds, and with an ensemble forecast started from perturbed initial conditions derived froman ad hoc thermocline intensified random perturbation (TIRP) method. The EEPS-OEF shows spread on basin scales while the TIRP-OEF response is mesoscale-intensified as in the BHM-SVW-OEF response. TIRP-OEF perturbations fill more of the MFS domain, while the BHM-SVW-OEF perturbations are more location-specific, concentrating ensemble spread at the sites where the ocean-model response to uncertainty in the surface wind forcing is largest

Daily oceanographic analyses by the Mediterranean basin scale assimilation system

This study presents the upgrade of the Optimal Interpolation scheme used in the basin scale assimilation scheme of the Mediterranean Forecasting System . The modifications include a daily analysis cycle, the assimilation of ARGO float profiles, the implementation of the geostrophic balance in the background error covariance matrix and the initialisation of the analyses. A series of numerical experiments showed that each modification had a positive impact on the accuracy of the analyses: The daily cycle improved the representation of the processes with a relatively high temporal variability, the assimilation of ARGO floats profiles significantly improved the salinity analyses quality, the geostrophically balanced background error covariances improved the accuracy of the surface elevation analyses, and the initialisation removed the barotropic adjustment in the forecast first time steps starting from the analysis

Mitochondrial genomes of giant deers suggest their late survival in Central Europe

The giant deer Megaloceros giganteus is among the most fascinating Late Pleistocene Eurasian megafauna that became extinct at the end of the last ice age. Important questions persist regarding its phylogenetic relationship to contemporary taxa and the reasons for its extinction. We analyzed two large ancient cervid bone fragments recovered from cave sites in the Swabian Jura (Baden-Württemberg, Germany) dated to 12,000 years ago. Using hybridization capture in combination with next generation sequencing, we were able to reconstruct nearly complete mitochondrial genomes from both specimens. Both mtDNAs cluster phylogenetically with fallow deer and show high similarity to previously studied partial Megaloceros giganteus DNA from Kamyshlov in western Siberia and Killavullen in Ireland. The unexpected presence of Megaloceros giganteus in Southern Germany after the Ice Age suggests a later survival in Central Europe than previously proposed. The complete mtDNAs provide strong phylogenetic support for a Dama-Megaloceros clade. Furthermore, isotope analyses support an increasing competition between giant deer, red deer, and reindeer after the Last Glacial Maximum, which might have contributed to the extinction of Megaloceros in Central Europe

Inefficient skeletal muscle oxidative function flanks impaired motor neuron recruitment in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis during exercise

This study aimed to evaluate muscle oxidative function during exercise in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients (pALS) with non-invasive methods in order to assess if determinants of reduced exercise tolerance might match ALS clinical heterogeneity. 17 pALS, who were followed for 4 months, were compared with 13 healthy controls (CTRL). Exercise tolerance was assessed by an incremental exercise test on cycle ergometer measuring peak O2 uptake ([Formula: see text]O2peak), vastus lateralis oxidative function by near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and breathing pattern ([Formula: see text]E peak). pALS displayed: (1) 44% lower [Formula: see text]O2peak vs. CTRL (p\u2009<\u20090.0001), paralleled by a 43% decreased peak skeletal muscle oxidative function (p\u2009<\u20090.01), with a linear regression between these two variables (r2\u2009=\u20090.64, p\u2009<\u20090.0001); (2) 46% reduced [Formula: see text]Epeak vs. CTRL (p\u2009<\u20090.0001), achieved by using an inefficient breathing pattern (increasing respiratory frequency) from the onset until the end of exercise. Inefficient skeletal muscle O2 function, when flanking the impaired motor units recruitment, is a major determinant of pALS clinical heterogeneity and working capacity exercise tolerance. CPET and NIRS are useful tools for detecting early stages of oxidative deficiency in skeletal muscles, disclosing individual impairments in the O2 transport and utilization chain

Ocean Ensemble Forecasting, Part II: Mediterranean Forecast System Response

This paper analyzes the ocean forecast response to surface vector wind (SVW) distributions generated by a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) developed in Part I (Milliff et al., 2009). A new method for Ocean Ensemble Forecasting (OEF), so-called BHM-SVW-OEF, is described. BHM-SVW realizations are used to produce and force perturbations in the ocean state during 14-day analysis and 10-day forecast cycles of the Mediterranean Forecast System (MFS). The BHM-SVW-OEF ocean response spread is amplified at the mesoscales and pycnocline of the eddy field. The new method is compared to an ensemble response forced by ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EEPS) surface winds, and to an ensemble forecast started from perturbed initial conditions derived from an ad hoc Thermocline Intensified Random Perturbation (TIRP) method. The EEPS-OEF shows spread at the basin scales while the TIRP-OEF response is mesoscale intensified as in the BHM-SVW-OEF response. TIRP-OEF perturbations fill more of the MFS domain while the BHM-SVW-OEF perturbations are more location-specific, concentrating ensemble spread at the sites where the ocean model response to uncertainty in the surface wind forcing is largest. The BHM-SVW-OEF method offers a practical and objective means for producing short-term forecast spread by modeling surface atmospheric forcing uncertainties that have maximum impact at the ocean mesoscales

Transition from orogenic-like to anorogenic magmatism in the Southern Alps during the Early Mesozoic: Evidence from elemental and Nd-Sr-Hf-Pb isotope geochemistry of alkali-rich dykes from the Finero Phlogopite Peridotite, Ivrea–Verbano Zone

The Ivrea-Verbano Zone (IVZ) in the westernmost sector of the Southern Alps is an iconic upper mantle to lower continental crust sequence of the Adriatic Plate and provides a geological window into the tectono-magmatic events that occurred at the Gondwana–Laurussia boundary from Late Paleozoic to Early Mesozoic. In this work, we document new geochemical and Nd-Sr-Hf-Pb isotopic data for Early Mesozoic alkali-rich dyke swarms which intruded the Finero Phlogopite Peridotite (northern IVZ) to provide geological constraints on the nature, origin and evolution of Early Mesozoic magmatism in the Southern Alps. The studied dykes are amphibole-phlogopite-bearing and show geochemical features varying between two end-member groups. A dyke group is characterized by HFSE-poor, Al-rich amphibole (Al2O3 up to 16 wt.%) with high LILE and LREE contents, high radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr(i) (0.704732 to 0.704934) and low radiogenic Nd isotopes (εNd(i) from –0.1 to –0.7), which support the occurrence of significant amounts of recycled continental crust components in the parental mantle melts and impart an overall “orogenic-like” affinity. This dyke group was largely derived from metasomatized lithospheric mantle sources. The second group is HFSE-rich with Al-poorer amphibole enriched in LILE and LREE, low radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr(i) (0.703761–0.704103) and higher radiogenic Nd isotopes (εNd(i) from +3.4 to +5.4) pointing to an “anorogenic” alkaline affinity and asthenospheric to deep lithospheric mantle sources. Some dykes show both orogenic and anorogenic affinities, providing evidence that the orogenic-like magmatism in the IVZ predates the alkaline anorogenic magmatism. The Finero dyke swarms therefore record a geochemical change of the Early Mesozoic magmatism of the Southern Alps from orogenic-like magmatism, typical of post-collisional settings, to anorogenic alkaline magmatism, common in intraplate to extensional settings, and places a temporal correlation of Early Mesozoic magmatism in the IVZ to those in the eastern and central sectors of the Southern Alps