lmplicit Pension Debt in the Middle-East and North Africa: Magnitude and Fiscal lmplications

This paper breaks down the contingent liability of a mandatory pension system into two components: the implicit pension debt and the pay-as-you-go asset. It then estimates these two components for 12 pension schemes across six MENA countries and presents international comparisons. The results show that implicit pension debts are large (in the order of 50% to 100% of GDP), often higher than the explicit public debt. At the same time, the large majority of pension schemes have negative pay-as-you-go assets. Under these circumstances, it is misleading to consider the implicit pension debt a contingency, as the government will have to finance it with almost certainty. In the absence of a default the fiscal impacts are expected to be large. The paper recommends including in the assessment of public debt sustainability the implicit liabilities of the mandatory pension system and the pay-as-you-go asset.Pensions, implicit pension debt, fiscal policy, government bonds, contingent government liabilities

Stochastic Gradient versus Recursive Least Squares Learning

In this paper we perform an in—depth investigation of relative merits of two adaptive learning algorithms with constant gain, Recursive Least Squares (RLS) and Stochastic Gradient (SG), using the Phelps model of monetary policy as a testing ground. The behavior of the two learning algorithms is very different. RLS is characterized by a very small region of attraction of the Self—Confirming Equilibrium (SCE) under the mean, or averaged, dynamics, and “escapesâ€, or large distance movements of perceived model parameters from their SCE values. On the other hand, the SCE is stable under the SG mean dynamics in a large region. However, actual behavior of the SG learning algorithm is divergent for a wide range of constant gain parameters, including those that could be justified as economically meaningful. We explain the discrepancy by looking into the structure of eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the mean dynamics map under the SG learning. As a result of our paper, we express a warning regarding the behavior of constant gain learning algorithm in real time. If many eigenvalues of the mean dynamics map are close to the unit circle, Stochastic Recursive Algorithm which describes the actual dynamics under learning might exhibit divergent behavior despite convergent mean dynamics.constant gain adaptive learning, E—stability, recursive least squares, stochastic gradient learning

An assessment of reform options for the public service pension fund in Uganda

This paper analyzes the future liabilities that the Ugandan Public Service Pensions Fund might accumulate under the provisions of the Pensions Act (CAP 286) unless it is reformed. It then discusses alternative reform options that can be used in designing an educated homegrown reform of the fund. The paper supports a hybrid (two-pillar) reform option composed of a small defined benefit scheme and a complementary defined contribution scheme, instead of a pure defined contribution (monopillar) reform option discussed by policymakers in the country. The main reason for this is related to the fact that hybrid and pure defined contribution reforms will have the same impact on reducing pension expenditure (for the same grandfathering rules and surplus in the first pillar). In addition, everything else being equal, the hybrid reform is likely to produce higher average replacement rates due to the redistributive and pooling properties of the small defined benefit pillar.Pensions&Retirement Systems,Enterprise Development&Reform,Population Policies,State Owned Enterprise Reform,Labor Markets

SMALL BUSINESS IN NORTHERN REGIONS OF RUSSIA IN THE CORONACRISIS CONDITIONS: FACTORS, ISSUES AND CONSTRAINTS OF DEVELOPMENT

Objective: This study examines formation issues of the small business entrepreneurial ecosystem in the Northern regions of Russia in the conditions of coronavirus crisis. The importance of small business in the regional economy is not only legally enacted but is also scientifically based and disclosed by researchers. Social and economic infrastructure with a wide range of service support for small enterprises plays a special role in the activity of small enterprises in the Northern oil and gas producing regions. The purpose of the study is to analyze and economically assess small businesses development in the Northern oil and gas producing regions, using the case study of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug – Yugra based on retrospective data and to elicit existing relations between the state-of-the-art of small business and the periods of crisis events as well as to assess major problems and constraints. Methods: In this paper, the research is based on the Northern regions of Russia with a high level of state support for small businesses activities. Results: The authors of this study suggest that the coronavirus crisis has had a significant impact on the transformation of small business in Northern regions of Russia and this negative impact of the crisis may cause adverse consequences for the entire economy of the region. This assumption is verified using the case study of changes in basic parameters of small business and the impact of crisis processes on its development. Conclusion: The revealed regional features of the economic development in the Northern regions of Russia are considered by the authors not only as being negative factors but also as potential opportunities; for example, amid biological threats, those Northern regions being remote from the Centre and borders were in a better situation, in terms of spreading infection, etc

Formation program in mathematics at the technical university and the quality of knowledge

The aim of the study is to discuss the maintenance of the educational programs for mathematical disciplines existing at the higher school and problems of teaching mathematics at training of specialists of the engineering directions. Activity and competence basis of mathematical education of engineers can not be increased within a tough part of the conservative academic programs in mathematics. Program in mathematics for undergraduate engineering training areas do not meet the needs of engineering professional education. They meet the requirements of educational standards only in form, but in fact, are copies of traditional academic programs of the last century. Absence of accurate recommendations about reconstruction of mathematical chairs of curricula, operating decades habitual for teachers, leads only to formal mechanical reduction of the hours which are taken away on studying of the demanded sections and subjects. Methods. The methods involve analysis, generalization, and written anonymous survey among students. Results and scientific novelty. Analysis of existing programs, the results of their assimilation, and the teaching of mathematics in general leads to the need to put forward new real principles of the program of mathematical disciplines. As such new principles of selection of the content of mathematical preparation the principles of lacunarity, reliability, minimalism, selectivity and ICT-support are offered. The methods of realization of these principles are the following: analysis of competences, analysis of scientific articles and theses on group of the scientific specialties connected with the directions of training, carrying out analogies, interviewing of key experts and teachers, expert estimates, formalization of requirements, etc. Restructuring of mathematics programs is designed to develop logical and algorithmic thinking of engineering students; to cultivate an applied mathematical culture; formation of insight and erudition in mathematics application. Practical significance. Research implications may be useful to managers and training specialists of Mathematical Departments of technical universities, program builders in mathematics and educational standards in engineering fieldsЦель публикации – обсуждение содержания существующих в высшей школе образовательных программ по математическим дисциплинам и проблем преподавания математики при подготовке специалистов инженерных направлений. Деятельностную и компетентностную основы математического образования инженеров невозможно усилить, находясь в жестких рамках консервативных академических программ по математике, которые не соответствуют целям и задачам современной профессиональной подготовки. Они удовлетворяют требованиям образовательных стандартов лишь по форме, а в реальности копируют традиционное обучение, характерное для прошлого века. Отсутствие четких рекомендаций по реконструкции действовавших десятилетиями привычных для преподавателей математических кафедр учебных планов приводит лишь к формальному механическому сокращению часов, отводимых на изучение требуемых разделов и тем. Методы, использовавшиеся в работе, – анализ, обобщение, письменный анонимный опрос студентов. Результаты и научная новизна. На основе анализа как существующих программ и результатов их усвоения, так и самого процесса преподавания математики в целом автор приходит к выводу о необходимости построения программ математических дисциплин на новых практических принципах, которые дополнят перечень основных дидактических положений высшего образования и помогут определить и предпринять конкретные действия по преобразованию программ по существу. В качестве таких новых принципов отбора содержания математической подготовки предлагаются принципы лакунарности, надежности, минимализма, избирательности и ИКТ-сопровождения. Методами реализации этих принципов могут стать анализ компетенций, анализ научных статей и диссертаций по группе научных специальностей, связанных с направлениями обучения, проведение аналогий, интервьюирование ключевых специалистов и преподавателей, экспертные оценки, формализация требований и др. Описанная в статье перестройка программ по математике направлена на развитие у студентов технического университета логического и алгоритмического мышления, воспитание у них прикладной математической культуры, формирование интуиции и эрудиции в вопросах применения математики. Практическая значимость. Материалы статьи могут быть полезны руководителям и методистам математических кафедр технических университетов, разработчикам новых программ по математике и образовательных стандартов по инженерным направлениям подготовк

Teaching Mathematics with Mathematical Software

The history of contemporary mathematical education is the history of a struggle against computers and IT. As a result specially selected simplified math problems are used while teaching. Just as it was a hundred years ago, contemporary students are forced to memorize a lot of rules and theorems in order to solve math problems. But we know that today they can get the same results using simple computer calculations. Information technologies can (and in this paper we argue that they should) change the traditional methods of solving mathematical problems. Here we share some simple problems that helped engineering students learn the basics of mathematics and computer science and even enjoy the learning process. In particular we point out that the ability to visualize solutions is very important in most contexts, and modern mathematical software packages offer users convenient and simple tools of visualization and even animation. Including them on our pedagogical team, we can significantly increase our students\u27 understanding of the basic concepts and theorems of mathematics

Empreendedorismo social no norte da Rússia: novas oportunidades de desenvolvimento

The main purpose of the article is to develop and substantiate the co-evolutionary model “Social entrepreneur – State institutions – Population” on the example of the Northern region of Russia. The relevance of the study is determined by the need to find and use new innovative resources of socio-economic development of the North. Violation of the socio-economic balance leads to the fact that citizens in need of special social protection become the most vulnerable in the North. Results demonstrated that this situation creates a high level of social tension. In such circumstances, an important role can be assigned to “social entrepreneurs”, who with full responsibility can take over the execution of important social functions. The results of the study can be used by regional authorities, self-regulatory organizations, associations of social entrepreneurs, other interested institutions to justify the effectiveness of administrative decisions.El objetivo principal del artículo es desarrollar y fundamentar el modelo coevolutivo "Emprendedor social - Instituciones estatales - Población" en el ejemplo de la región norte de Rusia. La relevancia del estudio está determinada por la necesidad de encontrar y utilizar nuevos recursos innovadores de desarrollo socioeconómico del Norte. La violación del equilibrio socioeconómico lleva al hecho de que los ciudadanos que necesitan protección social especial se vuelven los más vulnerables del Norte. Los resultados demostraron que esta situación crea un alto nivel de tensión social. En tales circunstancias, se puede asignar un papel importante a los “empresarios sociales”, quienes con toda la responsabilidad pueden asumir la ejecución de funciones sociales importantes. Los resultados del estudio pueden ser utilizados por las autoridades regionales, organizaciones autorreguladoras, asociaciones de empresarios sociales y otras instituciones interesadas para justificar la eficacia de las decisiones administrativas.O objetivo principal do artigo é desenvolver e substanciar o modelo coevolutivo “Empreendedor social - Instituições estatais - População”, no exemplo da região Norte da Rússia. A relevância do estudo é determinada pela necessidade de encontrar e usar novos recursos inovadores de desenvolvimento socioeconômico do Norte. A violação do equilíbrio socioeconómico leva ao facto de os cidadãos que necessitam de protecção social especial se tornarem os mais vulneráveis do Norte. Os resultados demonstraram que esta situação cria um alto nível de tensão social. Em tais circunstâncias, um papel importante pode ser atribuído aos “empreendedores sociais”, que com responsabilidade total podem assumir a execução de importantes funções sociais. Os resultados do estudo podem ser usados por autoridades regionais, organizações de auto-regulação, associações de empreendedores sociais, outras instituições interessadas para justificar a eficácia das decisões administrativas