Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Knowledge, Practice, and Associated Factors of Home-Based Management of Diarrhea among Caregivers of Children Attending Under-Five Clinic in Fagita Lekoma District, Awi Zone, Amhara Regional State, Northwest Ethiopia, 2016

Introduction. In Ethiopia, it is the second cause for clinical presentation among under five-year child population. Objective. The main aim of this study was to assess knowledge, practice, and associated factors of home-based management of diarrhea among caregivers of children attending the under-five clinic. Methods. Institution based quantitative cross-sectional study was carried out from March 1, 2016, to April 22, 2016. Results. Two hundred eight (56.2%) of them had good knowledge and one hundred thirty-nine (37.6%) of them had the good practice of home management of diarrhea, specifically, primary education (AOR: 5.384, 95% CI: 2.008, 14.438), secondary and above education (AOR: 11.769, 95% CI: 3.527, 39.275), daily laborer (AOR: 0.208, 95% CI: 0.054, 0.810), and no information about diarrhea (AOR: 0.139, 95% CI: 0.054, 0.354). Moreover, age range of 25–35 (AOR: 4.091, 95% CI: 1.741, 9.616) and 36–45 (AOR: 3.639, 95% CI: 1.155, 11.460), being single (AOR: 0.111, 95% CI: 0.013, 0.938), being divorced (AOR: 0.120, 95% CI: 0.024, 0.598), illiteracy (AOR: 0.052, 95% CI: 0.017, 0.518), primary education (AOR: 0.143, CI: 0.046, 0.440), and no information about diarrhea (AOR: 0.197, 95% CI: 0.057, 0.685) were significantly associated variables with the outcome variables in multivariate regression. Conclusion. Caregivers had slightly adequate knowledge but poor practice

Knowledge, Practice, and Associated Factors of Home-Based Management of Diarrhea among Caregivers of Children Attending Under-Five Clinic in Fagita Lekoma District, Awi Zone, Amhara Regional State, Northwest Ethiopia, 2016

Introduction. In Ethiopia, it is the second cause for clinical presentation among under five-year child population. Objective. The main aim of this study was to assess knowledge, practice, and associated factors of home-based management of diarrhea among caregivers of children attending the under-five clinic. Methods. Institution based quantitative cross-sectional study was carried out from March 1, 2016, to April 22, 2016. Results. Two hundred eight (56.2%) of them had good knowledge and one hundred thirty-nine (37.6%) of them had the good practice of home management of diarrhea, specifically, primary education (AOR: 5.384, 95% CI: 2.008, 14.438), secondary and above education (AOR: 11.769, 95% CI: 3.527, 39.275), daily laborer (AOR: 0.208, 95% CI: 0.054, 0.810), and no information about diarrhea (AOR: 0.139, 95% CI: 0.054, 0.354). Moreover, age range of 25–35 (AOR: 4.091, 95% CI: 1.741, 9.616) and 36–45 (AOR: 3.639, 95% CI: 1.155, 11.460), being single (AOR: 0.111, 95% CI: 0.013, 0.938), being divorced (AOR: 0.120, 95% CI: 0.024, 0.598), illiteracy (AOR: 0.052, 95% CI: 0.017, 0.518), primary education (AOR: 0.143, CI: 0.046, 0.440), and no information about diarrhea (AOR: 0.197, 95% CI: 0.057, 0.685) were significantly associated variables with the outcome variables in multivariate regression. Conclusion. Caregivers had slightly adequate knowledge but poor practice

COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rate and its predictors in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a global pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. COVID-19 vaccine is the best strategy for prevention. However, it remained the main challenge. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to determine the overall pooled estimate of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and its predictors in Ethiopia. Consequently, we have searched articles from PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Google Scholar, reference lists of included studies, and Ethiopian universities’ research repository. The weighted inverse variance random effects model was employed. The quality of studies and the overall variation between studies were checked through Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) quality appraisal criteria and heterogeneity test (I2), respectively. The funnel plot and Egger’s regression test were also conducted. Following that, a total of 14 studies with 6,773 participants were considered in the study and the overall pooled proportion of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance was 51.2% (95% CI: 43.9, 58.5). Having good knowledge (Odds ratio: 2.7; 95% CI: 1.1, 7.1; P.value: 0.00), chronic disease (Odds ratio: 2; 95% CI: 1.3, 3.1), older age (Odds ratio: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.1, 3.0; P.value: 0.02), and secondary education and above (Odds ratio: 3.3; 95% CI: 1.7, 6.7; P.value: 0.00) were significantly associated with the acceptance of COVID-19 vaccine. In conclusion, Having good knowledge, chronic disease, older age, and secondary education and above were significantly associated with COVID-19 vaccine acceptance. Therefore, special attention and a strengthened awareness, education, and training about COVID-19 vaccine benefits had to be given to uneducated segments of the population

Spatial distribution of pregnancy and early motherhood among late adolescent girls in Ethiopia using data from the Ethiopia Demographics and Health Survey 2019: Spatial and multilevel analyses.

BackgroundVarious governmental and non-governmental organizations in Ethiopia are striving to decrease adolescent pregnancy by enacting laws against early marriage, developing a national youth and adolescent reproductive health strategy, legalizing abortion, and developing an HIV/AIDS policy for youth; however, the issue of teenage pregnancy& early motherhood remains a major concern.MethodsData were obtained from the Ethiopian Demographics and Health Survey (EDHS) in 2019. A total sample of 2210 adolescents was included in our study. Spatial autocorrelation, hotspot analysis, and spatial interpolation were used to observe significant spatial variation and clustering and to predict the prevalence of pregnancy in an unsampled area among adolescent girls in Ethiopia; a multilevel binary logistic regression model was fitted to identify factors associated with the outcome variable. The adjusted odds ratio was calculated with a 95% confidence interval, and the variables with a p-value 0.05 in the multivariable multilevel logistic regression were determined to be statistically significant.ResultsGlobal spatial autocorrelation analyses showed that the spatial distribution of late-adolescent pregnancy and early motherhood varied across Ethiopia (the Global Moran's Index I value showed GMI = 0.014, P 0.001). The spatial distribution revealed a high cluster (hot spot) of late-adolescent pregnancy and early motherhood in most parts of Gambella, Afar, Benishangul-Gumuz, the eastern part of Oromia, and Somalia. In the multivariable multilevel analysis, being 17 years old (AOR = 3.43; 95% CI: 1.54-7.59), 18 years old (AOR = 14.92; 95% CI: 6.78-32.8), and 19 years old (AOR = 8.44; 95% CI: 4.06, 17.56), married (AOR = 25.38; 95% CI: 15.33, 42.02), having completed primary, secondary, and higher education (AOR = 0.45; 95% CI: 0.21-0.95), and being at Gambela (AOR = 3.64; 95% CI: 1.04, 12.75) were significant predictors of late adolescent pregnancy and early motherhood.ConclusionOverall, the prevalence of late-adolescent pregnancy and early motherhood was found to be high. At the individual level, marital status, educational attainment, and age of adolescents were significant predictors of pregnancy and early motherhood, and regions were found at a community level associated with pregnancy and early motherhood among late adolescents. Therefore, late-adolescent girls should be educated about menstruation, sexual intercourse, pregnancy, and contraceptives before they reach early adolescence

Spatial distribution and determinants of tetanus toxoid immunization among pregnant women in Ethiopia using data from Ethiopian demographic and health survey 2016

Abstract Introduction Tetanus is a major public health problem caused by clostridium tetani. Although it is vaccine-preventable, the case fatality rate among neonates in areas with poor immunization coverage and limited access to clean deliveries reaches 80-100%. Vaccination of pregnant mothers with the tetanus toxoid (TT) vaccine is the most effective way to protect against neonatal tetanus. This study aimed to examine the spatial distribution and determinants of tetanus toxoid immunization among pregnant mothers using the 2016 EDHS data. Method Secondary analysis of the Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey 2016 was done to assess the spatial distribution and determinants of tetanus toxoid vaccine among pregnant women in Ethiopia. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and hot spot analysis were used to detect spatial dependency and spatial clustering of the tetanus toxoid vaccine in Ethiopia. Spatial interpolation was used to predict the tetanus toxoid vaccine coverage in unsampled areas. The multilevel binary logistic regression model was fitted to identify factors associated with tetanus toxoid vaccination. An adjusted odds ratio with 95% CI was calculated and used as the measure of association and a p-value less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Result From the total of 7043 pregnant women, 42.4% of them have taken at least two doses of tetanus toxoid immunization. Spatial clustering of TT immunization was observed in the Northern, Southwestern and Southwestern parts of Ethiopia. Whereas, low TT coverage was observed in the Eastern and Western parts of the country. Increased ANC visits and the richest economic status favored TT immunization, whereas living in Addis Ababa and Dire Dewa cities decreased the TT immunization coverage. Conclusion The finding of this study reveals that TT immunization had spatial dependency, with the highest immunization coverage observed in the Northern, Southwestern and Southeastern parts of the Country. Thus, geographically targeted interventions should be implemented particularly in the eastern and western parts of the country

Multivariable multilevel logistic regression analysis results of both individual-level and community-level factors associated with infant mortality in Ethiopia.

Multivariable multilevel logistic regression analysis results of both individual-level and community-level factors associated with infant mortality in Ethiopia.</p

Sociodemographic characteristics of live births born five years preceding the survey in Ethiopia.

Sociodemographic characteristics of live births born five years preceding the survey in Ethiopia.</p

Random effect and model fit statistics of infant mortality in Ethiopia.

Random effect and model fit statistics of infant mortality in Ethiopia.</p

Hot spot analysis of infant mortality in Ethiopia, Shapefile source: (Central Statistical agency 2013; URL: https://africaopendata.org/dataset/ethiopia-shapefiles).

Map output: Own analysis using ArcMap 10.8 software.</p