Improving Ethiopian Smallholders’ Income and Food Security: An Assessment of Alternative Policy Options

Smallholder farmers dominate food production, but also represent the largest share of people in developing countries experiencing food insecurity. In Ethiopia, agricultural growth now forms the backbone of the country’s long-term plans for economic growth. This study aims to analyze long-term changes to the agricultural sector and its consequences for the evolution of smallholder farmers under various policy scenarios. A farming typology based on the agro-ecological zone, the dominant activities, and the degree of market integration is established for this purpose. The agro-ecological zone is divided into the rainfall-sufficient and drought prone highland areas and the pastoralist lowlands. Dominant activities are either pure livestock-keeping or a combination of crops and livestock. Market integration is based on the share of agricultural output sold to the market. The resulting typology is extrapolated to all regions of Ethiopia. The spatially differentiated typology is integrated in an Ethiopia-version of Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), a globally-consistent partial equilibrium model representing spatial land-use patterns and accounting for biophysical resource constraints. 19 crops (the standard GLOBIOM crops, teff, coffee and sesame), 4 animal types (cattle, sheep, goats and poultry) and 2 livestock products (milk and meat) are represented in the model. Projections of population and GDP growth per region are used to set up the initial demand for each product and each time step. Policies aiming to improve food security and reduce poverty are subsequently implemented. These include infrastructure and irrigation extensions as well as the improvement of access to fertilizers. Results show that the distribution of the farming systems changes across space and time under different policy scenarios. Impacts on smallholders’ poverty and food security status differ depending on the policy, enabling a spatially explicit assessment of policy options at both the local and national level

Biometfical genetic analysis of serum Cholesterol response and basal serum HDL cholesterol level in the rabbit

The inheritance of the susceptibility for dietary cholesterol (serum cholesterol response) and of basal serum HDL cholesterol level in the rabbit have been studied by measuring serum total cholesterol levels and HDL cholesterol levels in animalsfrom crosses between hyperresponding and hyporesponding inbred strains. The serum cholesterol response and basal serum HDL cholesterol levels of the resulting six populations (the two parental strains, Fl-hybrid, two baekerosses and F7)were subjected to a biomedical genetic analysis to determine the number of loci involved and the (narrow sense) heritability 0f the two traits. The study revealed that 30% of the individual variation of the serum cholesterol response is under geneticcontrol and that 10 to 16 loci may be involved. The heritability for basal serum HDL cholesterol levels was 50 to 80%, whereas two to five loci may be involved in regulating the basal serum HDL cholesterol level in rabbits

Rabbit serum esterase genotyping and relationship to serum cholesterol response and basal serum HDL cholesterol level

Previous studies have indicated that esterases might be involved in the serum cholesterol response in rabbits. The question addressed in this study is whether in rabbits esterase loci of Linkage Group VI (LG VI) are genetically linked withthe serum cholesterol response to dietary cholesterol or the basal serum HDL cholesterol level. For this purpose the Est-2 and Es-1 genotypes of rabbits in segregating populations derived from a cross between IIIVO/JU (hyporespender andhigh basal serum HDL cholesterol level) and AX/1U (hypettesponder and low basal serum HDL cholesterol level) rabbits were determined. The segregating populations were fed a cholesterol-rich diet for 35 days. Both the Est-2 and Es—1 alleles failed to cosegregate with the serum cholesterol response, whereas a highly significant cosegregation was found with the basal serum HDL cholesterol level. It is concluded that one or more genes of LG VI are regulating the basal serumHDL cholesterol level in rabbits

Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research

Tipping points have become a key concept in research on climate change, indicating points of abrupt transition in biophysical systems as well as transformative changes in adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the potential existence of tipping points in socio-economic systems has remained underexplored, whereas they might be highly policy relevant. This paper describes characteristics of climate change induced socio-economic tipping points (SETPs) to guide future research on SETPS to inform climate policy. We review existing literature to create a tipping point typology and to derive the following SETP definition: a climate change induced, abrupt change of a socio-economic system, into a new, fundamentally different state. Through stakeholder consultation, we identify 22 candidate SETP examples with policy relevance for Europe. Three of these are described in higher detail to identify their tipping point characteristics (stable states, mechanisms and abrupt change): the collapse of winter sports tourism, farmland abandonment and sea-level rise-induced migration. We find that stakeholder perceptions play an important role in describing SETPs. The role of climate drivers is difficult to isolate from other drivers because of complex interplays with socio-economic factors. In some cases, the rate of change rather than the magnitude of change causes a tipping point. The clearest SETPs are found on small system scales. On a national to continental scale, SETPs are less obvious because they are difficult to separate from their associated economic substitution effects and policy response. Some proposed adaptation measures are so transformative that their implementations can be considered an SETP in terms of 'response to climate change'. Future research can focus on identification and impact analysis of tipping points using stylized models, on the exceedance of stakeholder-defined critical thresholds in the RCP/SSP space and on the macro-economic impacts of new system states

Implementation by simulation; strategies for ultrasound screening for hip dysplasia in the Netherlands

Background: Implementation of medical interventions may vary with organization and available capacity. The influence of this source of variability on the cost-effectiveness can be evaluated by computer simulation following a carefully designed experimental design. We used this approach as part of a national implementation study of ultrasonographic infant screening for developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). Methods: First, workflow and performance of the current screening program (physical examination) was analyzed. Then, experimental variables, i.e., relevant entities in the workflow of screening, were defined with varying levels to describe alternative implementation models. To determine the relevant levels literature and interviews among professional stakeholders are used. Finally, cost-effectiveness ratios (inclusive of sensitivity analyses) for the range of implementation scenarios were calculated. Results: The four experimental variables for implementation were: 1) location of the consultation, 2) integrated with regular consultation or not, 3) number of ultrasound machines and 4) discipline of the screener. With respective numbers of levels of 3,2,3,4 in total 72 possible scenarios were identified. In our model experimental variables related to the number of available ultrasound machines and the necessity of an extra consultation influenced the cost-effectiveness most. Conclusions: Better information comes available for choosing optimised implementation strategies where organizational and capacity variables are important using the combination of simulation models and an experimental design. Information to determine the levels of experimental variables can be extracted from the literature or directly from experts

Developing country-wide farming system typologies: An analysis of Ethiopian smallholders’ income and food security

This paper aims to better understand the context in which smallholder farms operate. The study has developed a new methodology to establish country-wide farm typologies that combines household and macro-level data (household survey, agricultural census and land cover data) to analyze food security and poverty, to enable an analysis that is both farm-system specific and spatially explicit. Using this methodology to analyze the poverty and food security situation of Ethiopian smallholder farms, the study has developed farming-system- and location-specific poverty and food security indicators which can provide guidance for more targeted strategies to reduce rural poverty

Simple current symmetries in RCFT

The question ''Which abelian permutation groups arise as group of simple currents in Rational Conformal Field Theory?'' is investigated using the formalism of weighted permutation actions. After a review of the relevant properties of simple current symmetries, the general theory of WPA-s and admissibility conditions are described, and classification results are illustrated by a couple of examples.Comment: 12 pages, 1 reference adde