Benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation on the supply, management, and use of water resources in the United States

Climate change impacts on water resources in the United States are likely to be far-reaching and substantial because the water is integral to climate, and the water sector spans many parts of the economy. This paper estimates impacts and damages from five water resource-related models addressing runoff, drought risk, economics of water supply/demand, water stress, and flooding damages. The models differ in the water system assessed, spatial scale, and unit of assessment, but together provide a quantitative and descriptive richness in characterizing water sector effects that no single model can capture. The results, driven by a consistent set of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and climate scenarios, examine uncertainty from emissions, climate sensitivity, and climate model selection. While calculating the net impact of climate change on the water sector as a whole may be impractical, broad conclusions can be drawn regarding patterns of change and benefits of GHG mitigation. Four key findings emerge: 1) GHG mitigation substantially reduces hydro-climatic impacts on the water sector; 2) GHG mitigation provides substantial national economic benefits in water resources related sectors; 3) the models show a strong signal of wetting for the Eastern US and a strong signal of drying in the Southwest; and 4) unmanaged hydrologic systems impacts show strong correlation with the change in magnitude and direction of precipitation and temperature from climate models, but managed water resource systems and regional economic systems show lower correlation with changes in climate variables due to non-linearities created by water infrastructure and the socio-economic changes in non-climate driven water demand

Water Body Temperature Model for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Thermal Cooling

We develop and test a physically based semi-Lagrangian water body temperature model to apply climatological data and thermal pollution from river-based power plants to historical river flow data in order to better understand climate change impacts on surface water temperature and thermal power plant withdrawal allowances. The model is built for rapid assessment and use in Integrated Assessment Models. We first test the standalone model on a 190km river reach, the Delaware River, where we have detailed flow and temperature data. An R2 of 0.88 is obtained on hourly data for this initial test. Next, we integrate the standalone temperature model into a series of models—rainfall-runoff model, water demand model, water resource management model, and power plant uptake and release model—for the contiguous USA (CONUS), with about 19,000 segments total. With this system in place, we then validate the standalone water temperature model within the system for 16 river stations throughout the CONUS, where we have measured daily temperature data. The model performs reasonably well with a median R2 of 0.88. A variety of climate and emissions scenarios are then applied to the model to test regions of higher vulnerability to river temperature environmental violations, making use of output from two GCMs and six emissions scenarios focusing on projections out to 2050. We find that the two GCMs project significantly different impacts to water temperature, driven largely by the resulting changes in streamflow from the two models. We also find significantly different impacts on the withdrawal allowed by thermal power plants due to environmental regulations. Potential impacts on generation are between +3% and -4% by 2050 for the unconstrained emissions case and +3.5% to -2% for the stringent GHG mitigation policy (where 1% is equivalent to 32 TWh, or about 3 billion USD/year using 2005 electricity prices). We also find that once-through cooling plants are most vulnerable to climate change impacts, with summer impacts ranging from -0.8% to -6% for the unconstrained emissions case and +2.1% to -3.7% for the stringent GHG emissions case

Precipitate Redistribution During Creep of Alloy 617

Nickel-based superalloys are being considered for applications within advanced nuclear power generation systems due to their high temperature strength and corrosion resistance. Alloy 617, a candidate for use in heat exchangers, derives its strength from both solid solution strengthening and the precipitation of carbide particles. However, during creep, carbides that are supposed to retard grain boundary motion are found to dissolve and re-precipitate on boundaries in tension. To quantify the redistribution, we have used electron backscatter diffraction and energy dispersive spectroscopy to analyze the microstructure of 617 after creep testing at 900 and 1000°C. The data were analyzed with respect to location of the carbides (e.g., intergranular vs. intragranular), grain boundary character, and precipitate type (i.e., Cr-rich or Mo-rich). We find that grain boundary character is the most important factor in carbide distribution; some evidence of preferential distribution to boundaries in tension is also observed at higher applied stresses. Finally, the results suggest that the observed redistribution is due to the migration of carbides to the boundaries and not the migration of boundaries to the precipitates

Vertical distribution and migration of fish larvae in the NW Iberian upwelling system during the winter mixing period: implications for cross-shelf distribution

The vertical distribution and vertical migrations of fish larvae and implications for their cross-shelf distribution were investigated in the northern limit of the NE Atlantic upwelling region during the late winter mixing period of 2012. The average positive values of the upwelling index for February and March of this year were far from normal, although the average hydrographic conditions during the period of study were of downwelling and the water column was completely mixed. Fish larvae, most in the preflexion stage, were concentrated in the upper layers of the water column and their distribution was depth stratified, both day and night. However, the larval fish community was not structured in the vertical plane and fish larvae did not show significant diel vertical migration (DVM), although five species showed ontogenetic vertical migration. In regions of coastal upwelling and in the absence of DVM, the location of fish larvae in the water column is crucial for their cross-shelf distribution. Thus, the cross-shelf distribution of the six most abundant species collected in this study can be explained by the surface onshore flow associated with coastal downwelling, retaining larvae of the coastal spawning species with a relatively shallow distribution in the shelf region and transporting larvae of slope spawning species onto the shelf. The wide vertical distribution shown by larvae of the offshore spawning species could be an adaptation of these species to ensure that some larvae reach the inshore nursery areasPlan Nacional de I+D+i (CRAMERCTM2010- 21856-CO3-02), Junta de Galicia (ECOPREGA-10MMA602021PR), Principado de Asturias (GRUPIN14-144)Postprint2,044

Computational prediction of pressure change in the vicinity of tidal stream turbines and the consequences for fish survival rate

The presence of Tidal Stream Turbines (TST) for tidal power production, leads to changes in the local physical environment that could affect fish. While other work has considered the implications with respect to conventional hydroelectric devices (i.e. hydroelectric dams), including studies such as physical impact with the rotors and pressure variation effects, this research considers the effects of sudden changes in pressure and turbulence on the hypothetical fish with respect to TSTs. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is used to investigate changes to the environment, and thus study the implications for fish. Two CFD methods are employed, an embedded Blade Element representation of the rotor in a RANS CFD model, and a blade resolved geometry using a moving reference frame. A new data interpretation approach is proposed as the primary source of environmental impact data; ‘rate of change of pressure’ with time along a streamtrace. This work also presents results for pressure, pressure gradients, shear rates and turbulence to draw conclusions about changes to the local physical environment. The assessment of the local impact is discussed in terms of the implications to individual fish passing a single or array of TST devices

Vertical distribution of fish larvae in the Canaries-African coastal transition zone, in summer

13 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables.-- Printed version published Jul 2006.This study reports the vertical distribution of fish larvae during the 1999 summer upwelling season in the Canaries-African Coastal Transition Zone (the Canaries-ACTZ). The transition between the African coastal upwelling and the typical subtropical offshore conditions is a region of intense mesoscale activity that supports a larval fish population dominated by African neritic species. During the study, the thermal stratification extended almost to the surface everywhere, and the surface mixed layer was typically shallow or non-existent. Upwelling occurred on the African shelf in a limited coastal sub-area of our sampling. The vertical distributions of the entire larval fish population, as well as of individual species, were independent of the seasonal thermocline. Fish larvae and mesozooplankton were concentrated at intermediate depths regardless of the thermocline position, probably because of its weak signature and spatial and temporal variability. Day/night vertical distributions suggest that some species did not perform diel vertical migration (DVM), whereas others showed either type I DVM or type II DVM. The opposing DVM patterns of different species compensate for each other resulting in no net DVM for the larval fish population as a whole.Fieldwork was carried out as part of the CANIGO project, funded by the EU, and of the "Pelagic (EU-CICYT 1FD97-1084)" project from the Spanish Ministry of Education and the European Union

In vitro degradation behavior and cytocompatibility of Mg–Zn–Zr alloys

Zinc and zirconium were selected as the alloying elements in biodegradable magnesium alloys, considering their strengthening effect and good biocompatibility. The degradation rate, hydrogen evolution, ion release, surface layer and in vitro cytotoxicity of two Mg–Zn–Zr alloys, i.e. ZK30 and ZK60, and a WE-type alloy (Mg–Y–RE–Zr) were investigated by means of long-term static immersion testing in Hank’s solution, non-static immersion testing in Hank’s solution and cell-material interaction analysis. It was found that, among these three magnesium alloys, ZK30 had the lowest degradation rate and the least hydrogen evolution. A magnesium calcium phosphate layer was formed on the surface of ZK30 sample during non-static immersion and its degradation caused minute changes in the ion concentrations and pH value of Hank’s solution. In addition, the ZK30 alloy showed insignificant cytotoxicity against bone marrow stromal cells as compared with biocompatible hydroxyapatite (HA) and the WE-type alloy. After prolonged incubation for 7 days, a stimulatory effect on cell proliferation was observed. The results of the present study suggested that ZK30 could be a promising material for biodegradable orthopedic implants and worth further investigation to evaluate its in vitro and in vivo degradation behavior

Oceanic Sharks Clean at Coastal Seamount

Interactions between pelagic thresher sharks (Alopias pelagicus) and cleaner wrasse were investigated at a seamount in the Philippines. Cleaning associations between sharks and teleosts are poorly understood, but the observable interactions seen at this site may explain why these mainly oceanic sharks regularly venture into shallow coastal waters where they are vulnerable to disturbance from human activity. From 1,230 hours of observations recorded by remote video camera between July 2005 and December 2009, 97 cleaner-thresher shark events were analyzed, 19 of which were interrupted. Observations of pelagic thresher sharks interacting with cleaners at the seamount were recorded at all times of day but their frequency declined gradually from morning until evening. Cleaners showed preferences for foraging on specific areas of a thresher shark's body. For all events combined, cleaners were observed to conduct 2,757 inspections, of which 33.9% took place on the shark's pelvis, 23.3% on the pectoral fins, 22.3% on the caudal fin, 8.6% on the body, 8.3% on the head, 2.1% on the dorsal fin, and 1.5% on the gills respectively. Cleaners did not preferentially inspect thresher sharks by time of day or by shark sex, but there was a direct correlation between the amount of time a thresher shark spent at a cleaning station and the number of inspections it received. Thresher shark clients modified their behavior by “circular-stance-swimming,” presumably to facilitate cleaner inspections. The cleaner-thresher shark association reflected some of the known behavioral trends in the cleaner-reef teleost system since cleaners appeared to forage selectively on shark clients. Evidence is mounting that in addition to acting as social refuges and foraging grounds for large visiting marine predators, seamounts may also support pelagic ecology by functioning as cleaning stations for oceanic sharks and rays