Irrigated agriculture, energy, and endangered species in the Upper Klamath Basin : Evaluating trade-offs and interconnections

In 2001, an extreme drought tightened water supply in the Upper Klamath Basin (basin) while earlier increases in Endangered Species Act (ESA) water requirements for basin fish species that same year elevated demands. The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), which manages irrigation water in parts of the basin located near the Oregon-California border, responded to ESA Section 7 obligations by severely curtailing water allocations to Reclamation Project irrigators for the 2001 growing season, costing irrigators an estimated $35 million in farm income. This event has directed attention to several important factors that may further undermine effective water management in the basin. These include higher ESA flow requirements due to a recent Ninth Circuit Court ruling and a ten-fold energy rate increase to irrigators resulting from a mid-2006 contract expiration with the regional energy provider. The overall objective of this research is to assess the impact of changes in ESA flow requirements and energy prices on the Upper Klamath Basin farm economy given variable levels of water trading flexibility and groundwater availability. A mathematical programming and Geographic Information System (GIS) framework is used in which farm decisions are assumed to maximize net revenue subject to hydrological, institutional, economic, and agronomic constraints. The results suggest that greater development of basin groundwater resources and the institution of a flexible water bank may be sufficient to mitigate the majority of costs related to increased ESA flow requirements in future years

Benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation on the supply, management, and use of water resources in the United States

Climate change impacts on water resources in the United States are likely to be far-reaching and substantial because the water is integral to climate, and the water sector spans many parts of the economy. This paper estimates impacts and damages from five water resource-related models addressing runoff, drought risk, economics of water supply/demand, water stress, and flooding damages. The models differ in the water system assessed, spatial scale, and unit of assessment, but together provide a quantitative and descriptive richness in characterizing water sector effects that no single model can capture. The results, driven by a consistent set of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and climate scenarios, examine uncertainty from emissions, climate sensitivity, and climate model selection. While calculating the net impact of climate change on the water sector as a whole may be impractical, broad conclusions can be drawn regarding patterns of change and benefits of GHG mitigation. Four key findings emerge: 1) GHG mitigation substantially reduces hydro-climatic impacts on the water sector; 2) GHG mitigation provides substantial national economic benefits in water resources related sectors; 3) the models show a strong signal of wetting for the Eastern US and a strong signal of drying in the Southwest; and 4) unmanaged hydrologic systems impacts show strong correlation with the change in magnitude and direction of precipitation and temperature from climate models, but managed water resource systems and regional economic systems show lower correlation with changes in climate variables due to non-linearities created by water infrastructure and the socio-economic changes in non-climate driven water demand

Environmental and Ecological Effects of Ocean Renewable Energy Development: A Current Synthesis

Marine renewable energy promises to assist in the effort to reduce carbon emissions worldwide. As with any large-scale development in the marine environment, however, it comes with uncertainty about potential environmental impacts, most of which have not been adequately evaluated—in part because many of the devices have yet to be deployed and tested. We review the nature of environmental and, more specifically, ecological effects of the development of diverse types of marine renewable energy—covering marine wind, wave, tidal, ocean current, and thermal gradient—and discuss the current state of knowledge or uncertainty on how these effects may be manifested. Many of the projected effects are common with other types of development in the marine environment; for example, additional structures lead to concerns for entanglement, habitat change, and community change. Other effects are relatively unique to marine energy conversion, and specific to the type of energy being harnessed, the individual device type, or the reduction in energy in marine systems. While many potential impacts are unavoidable but measurable, we would argue it is possible (and necessary) to minimize others through careful device development and site selection; the scale of development, however, will lead to cumulative effects that we must understand to avoid environmental impacts. Renewable energy developers, regulators, scientists, engineers, and ocean stakeholders must work together to achieve the common dual objectives of clean renewable energy and a healthy marine environment

Water Body Temperature Model for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Thermal Cooling

We develop and test a physically based semi-Lagrangian water body temperature model to apply climatological data and thermal pollution from river-based power plants to historical river flow data in order to better understand climate change impacts on surface water temperature and thermal power plant withdrawal allowances. The model is built for rapid assessment and use in Integrated Assessment Models. We first test the standalone model on a 190km river reach, the Delaware River, where we have detailed flow and temperature data. An R2 of 0.88 is obtained on hourly data for this initial test. Next, we integrate the standalone temperature model into a series of models—rainfall-runoff model, water demand model, water resource management model, and power plant uptake and release model—for the contiguous USA (CONUS), with about 19,000 segments total. With this system in place, we then validate the standalone water temperature model within the system for 16 river stations throughout the CONUS, where we have measured daily temperature data. The model performs reasonably well with a median R2 of 0.88. A variety of climate and emissions scenarios are then applied to the model to test regions of higher vulnerability to river temperature environmental violations, making use of output from two GCMs and six emissions scenarios focusing on projections out to 2050. We find that the two GCMs project significantly different impacts to water temperature, driven largely by the resulting changes in streamflow from the two models. We also find significantly different impacts on the withdrawal allowed by thermal power plants due to environmental regulations. Potential impacts on generation are between +3% and -4% by 2050 for the unconstrained emissions case and +3.5% to -2% for the stringent GHG mitigation policy (where 1% is equivalent to 32 TWh, or about 3 billion USD/year using 2005 electricity prices). We also find that once-through cooling plants are most vulnerable to climate change impacts, with summer impacts ranging from -0.8% to -6% for the unconstrained emissions case and +2.1% to -3.7% for the stringent GHG emissions case

Larval dispersal in a changing ocean with an emphasis on upwelling regions

Dispersal of benthic species in the sea is mediated primarily through small, vulnerable larvae that must survive minutes to months as members of the plankton community while being transported by strong, dynamic currents. As climate change alters ocean conditions, the dispersal of these larvae will be affected, with pervasive ecological and evolutionary consequences. We review the impacts of oceanic changes on larval transport, physiology, and behavior. We then discuss the implications for population connectivity and recruitment and evaluate life history strategies that will affect susceptibility to the effects of climate change on their dispersal patterns, with implications for understanding selective regimes in a future ocean. We find that physical oceanographic changes will impact dispersal by transporting larvae in different directions or inhibiting their movements while changing environmental factors, such as temperature, pH, salinity, oxygen, ultraviolet radiation, and turbidity, will affect the survival of larvae and alter their behavior. Reduced dispersal distance may make local adaptation more likely in well-connected populations with high genetic variation while reduced dispersal success will lower recruitment with implications for fishery stocks. Increased dispersal may spur adaptation by increasing genetic diversity among previously disconnected populations as well as increasing the likelihood of range expansions. We hypothesize that species with planktotrophic (feeding), calcifying, or weakly swimming larvae with specialized adult habitats will be most affected by climate change. We also propose that the adaptive value of retentive larval behaviors may decrease where transport trajectories follow changing climate envelopes and increase where transport trajectories drive larvae toward increasingly unsuitable conditions. Our holistic framework, combined with knowledge of regional ocean conditions and larval traits, can be used to produce powerful predictions of expected impacts on larval dispersal as well as the consequences for connectivity, range expansion, or recruitment. Based on our findings, we recommend that future studies take a holistic view of dispersal incorporating biological and oceanographic impacts of climate change rather than solely focusing on oceanography or physiology. Genetic and paleontological techniques can be used to examine evolutionary impacts of altered dispersal in a future ocean, while museum collections and expedition records can inform modern-day range shifts

Competition for water for the food system

Although the global agricultural system will need to provide more food for a growing and wealthier population in decades to come, increasing demands for water and potential impacts of climate change pose threats to food systems. We review the primary threats to agricultural water availability, and model the potential effects of increases in municipal and industrial (M&I) water demands, environmental flow requirements (EFRs) and changing water supplies given climate change. Our models show that, together, these factors cause an 18 per cent reduction in the availability of worldwide water for agriculture by 2050. Meeting EFRs, which can necessitate more than 50 per cent of the mean annual run-off in a basin depending on its hydrograph, presents the single biggest threat to agricultural water availability. Next are increases in M&I demands, which are projected to increase upwards of 200 per cent by 2050 in developing countries with rapidly increasing populations and incomes. Climate change will affect the spatial and temporal distribution of run-off, and thus affect availability from the supply side. The combined effect of these factors can be dramatic in particular hotspots, which include northern Africa, India, China, parts of Europe, the western US and eastern Australia, among others

Long-term Observations Reveal Environmental Conditions and Food Supply Mechanisms at an Arctic Deep-Sea Sponge Ground

Deep-sea sponge grounds are hotspots of benthic biomass and diversity. To date, very limited data exist on the range of environmental conditions in areas containing deep-sea sponge grounds and which factors are driving their distribution and sustenance. We investigated oceanographic conditions at a deep-sea sponge ground located on an Arctic Mid-Ocean Ridge seamount. Hydrodynamic measurements were performed along Conductivity-Temperature-Depth transects, and a lander was deployed within the sponge ground that recorded near-bottom physical properties as well as vertical fluxes of organic matter over an annual cycle. The data demonstrate that the sponge ground is found at water temperatures of −0.5°C to 1°C and is situated at the interface between two water masses at only 0.7° equatorward of the turning point latitude of semi-diurnal lunar internal tides. Internal waves supported by vertical density stratification interact with the seamount topography and produce turbulent mixing as well as resuspension of organic matter with temporarily very high current speeds up to 0.72 m s−1. The vertical movement of the water column delivers food and nutrients from water layers above and below toward the sponge ground. Highest organic carbon flux was observed during the summer phytoplankton bloom period, providing fresh organic matter from the surface. The flux of fresh organic matter is unlikely to sustain the carbon demand of this ecosystem. Therefore, the availability of bacteria, nutrients, and dissolved and particulate matter, delivered by tidally forced internal wave turbulence and transport by horizontal mean flows, likely plays an important role in meeting ecosystem-level food requirements

Climate Change Impacts on Harmful Algal Blooms in U.S. Freshwaters: A Screening-Level Assessment

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) have serious adverse effects on human and environmental health. Herein, we developed a modeling framework that predicts the effect of climate change on cyanobacteria concentrations in large reservoirs in the contiguous U.S. The framework, which uses climate change projections from five global circulation models, two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and two cyanobacterial growth scenarios, is unique in coupling climate projections with a hydrologic/water quality network model of the contiguous United States. Thus, it generates both regional and nationwide projections useful as a screening-level assessment of climate impacts on CyanoHAB prevalence as well as potential lost recreation days and associated economic value. Our projections indicate that CyanoHAB concentrations are likely to increase primarily due to water temperature increases tempered by increased nutrient levels resulting from changing demographics and climatic impacts on hydrology that drive nutrient transport. The combination of these factors results in the mean number of days of CyanoHAB occurrence ranging from about 7 days per year per waterbody under current conditions, to 16-23 days in 2050 and 18-39 days in 2090. From a regional perspective, we find the largest increases in CyanoHAB occurrence in the Northeast U.S., while the greatest impacts to recreation, in terms of costs, are in the Southeast

Resilience of the Eastern African electricity sector to climate driven changes in hydropower generation

Notwithstanding current heavy dependence on gas-fired electricity generation in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP), hydropower is expected to play an essential role in improving electricity access in the region. Expansion planning of electricity infrastructure is critical to support investment and maintaining balanced consumer electricity prices. Variations in water availability due to a changing climate could leave hydro infrastructure stranded or result in underutilization of available resources. In this study, we develop a framework consisting of long-term models for electricity supply and water systems management, to assess the vulnerability of potential expansion plans to the effects of climate change. We find that the most resilient EAPP rollout strategy corresponds to a plan optimised for a slightly wetter climate compared to historical trends. This study demonstrates that failing to climate-proof infrastructure investments can result in significant electricity price fluctuations in selected countries (Uganda & Tanzania) while others, such as Egypt, are less vulnerable