Does State Growth Management Change the Pattern of Urban Growth? Evidence From Florida.

This paper evaluates growth management in Florida by using a land use based regional adjustment model to project adjustments toward equilibrium densities of population and employment at the county level. The analysis utilizes a unique data set that contains detailed information on initial outcomes of the 1992 plan review in the State of Florida. These plan review outcomes are interacted with adjustment variables to test the hypothesis that Growth Management-specific policies have affected equilibrium adjustments in the following time period. The analysis is motivated by three specific research questions: Has Florida’s (1985) Growth Management Act increased changes in density during any of the three year time periods? Does plan compliance affect the growth trajectories of approved counties? And, finally, does the inclusion of optional plan elements further affect these growth trajectories? The findings suggest that compliance with state growth management mandates in Florida may push the adjustment process toward higher population densities in the1992-1997 time period. Additionally, the inclusion of an optional educational plan element may also push adjustments toward higher density. The results indicate that growth management efforts to address the technical planning process, as well as human capital needs, can increase the desirability, and thus the density, of sprawling counties in the Atlantic Southeast. Finally, because population and employment growth are jointly determined in the Atlantic Southeast, the long-term sustainability of economic development in Florida may depend on policies that preserve its desirability as a place to live. This paper elaborates upon work by Carruthers, McLaughlin, and Boarnet (2006) that shows Florida’s growth trajectory during the early 1990’s was significantly different than the Atlantic Southeast region.

Changes in Transit Use and Service and Associated Changes in Driving Near a New Light Rail Transit Line, MTI Report 12-44

Los Angeles is pursuing possibly the most ambitious rail transit investment program in the nation with plans to open six new rail transit lines between now and 2019. The report provides policy makes and planners a better understanding of the potential impacts of Los Angeles Metro’s rail transit investment program by assessing the changes in transit use of nearby residents and nearby bus service associated with the Expo Line, the first of the six new lines. Our findings indicate that changes in bus service that are coincident with the introduction of new light rail transit can negatively affect the overall transit ridership in the corridor. In addition, we find that households living near new Expo Line light rail stations reduced their vehicle miles traveled (VMT), but those households living near bus stops that were eliminated as part of the service change increased their VMT

Urban Spatial Structure and the Potential for Vehicle Miles Traveled Reduction: The Effects of Accessibility to Jobs within and beyond Employment Sub-centers

This research examines the relationship between urban polycentric spatial structure and driving. We identified 46 employment sub-centers in the Los Angeles Combined Statistical Area and calculated access to jobs that are within and beyond these sub-centers. To address potential endogeneity problems, we use access to historically important places and transportation infrastructure in the early 20th century as instrumental variables for job accessibility indices. Our Two-stage Tobit models show that access to jobs is negatively associated with household vehicle miles traveled in this region. Among various accessibility measures, access to jobs outside sub-centers has the largest elasticity (-0.155). We examine the location of places in the top quintile of access to non-centered jobs and find that those locations are often inner ring suburban developments, near the core of the urban area and not far from sub-centers, suggesting that strategies of infill development that fill in the gaps between sub-centers, rather than focusing on already accessible downtowns and large sub-centers, may be the best land use approach to reduce VMT

Does State Growth Management Change the Pattern of Urban Growth? Evidence From Florida

This paper evaluates growth management in Florida by using a land use based regional adjustment model to project adjustments toward equilibrium densities of population and employment at the county level. The analysis utilizes a unique data set that contains detailed information on initial outcomes of the 1992 plan review in the State of Florida. These plan review outcomes are interacted with adjustment variables to test the hypothesis that Growth Management-specific policies have affected equilibrium adjustments in the following time period. The analysis is motivated by three specific research questions: Has Florida's (1985) Growth Management Act increased changes in density during any of the three year time periods? Does plan compliance affect the growth trajectories of approved counties? And, finally, does the inclusion of optional plan elements further affect these growth trajectories? The findings suggest that compliance with state growth management mandates in Florida may push the adjustment process toward higher population densities in the1992-1997 time period. Additionally, the inclusion of an optional educational plan element may also push adjustments toward higher density. The results indicate that growth management efforts to address the technical planning process, as well as human capital needs, can increase the desirability, and thus the density, of sprawling counties in the Atlantic Southeast. Finally, because population and employment growth are jointly determined in the Atlantic Southeast, the long-term sustainability of economic development in Florida may depend on policies that preserve its desirability as a place to live. This paper elaborates upon work by Carruthers, McLaughlin, and Boarnet (2006) that shows Florida's growth trajectory during the early 1990's was significantly different than the Atlantic Southeast region

Linking highway improvements to changes in land use with quasi-experimental research design: A better forecasting tool for transportation decision-making

An important issue for future improvement and extensions of highways will be the ability of projects to sustain challenges to Environmental Impact Statements based upon forecasts of regional growth. A legal precedent for such challenges was established in 1997 when a U.S. District Court judge ruled that the EIS for a proposed Illinois toll road was deficient because the growth projections were the same in the build and no-build scenarios. This paper incorporates popular regional growth forecasting models into a quasi-experimental research design that directly relates new highway investments in three California counties to changes in population and employment location, while controlling for no-build historical counterfactuals. The authors model simultaneous employment and population growth from 1980 to 2000 in Merced, Orange, and Santa Clara counties, three California counties that received substantive highway improvements during the mid-1990s. The strategy permits a comparison of the before-and-after tests for effects of investments on economic growth and land use in three regions that contrast how increased highway access affects development patterns: (1) for an urban center in Santa Clara County, (2) for an exurban region in Orange County, and (3) for a small town in Merced County. We find that traditional forecast approaches, which lack explicit control selection, can lead to erroneous conclusions about an impact. Our integrated form of the lagged adjustment model confirms results from a conventional form of the model that includes all cross-sectional units as observations; in both forms of the model we estimate a statistically significant increase in employment development in the exurban region in Orange County where new toll roads were constructed. In the case of Santa Clara County, neither our quasi-experimental integrated approach nor the conventional lagged adjustment approach estimates a significant effect on population or employment growth that can be attributed to the new highways constructed in the urban center. For the small town environment in Merced County, the conventional simultaneous growth regressions produce a materially different estimate than the approach we develop and examine in this paper. Isolating effects to local spatial units where the intervention occurred and their no-build counterfactual produces estimates of a statistically significant decrease in employment growth in the small town near the newly constructed highway bypass

Effect of New Rail Transit Stations on Income Distribution of Nearby Residential Moves

This project brief summarizes findings from a project aimed at addressing the question of "Is new rail transit associated with displacement of low-income residents in near-rail neighborhoods?" To address this question, the researchers used annual data on household locations and incomes from 1994 to 2012 to examine neighborhood income distributions and the pattern of residential moves by income in Los Angeles rail transit neighborhoods. The Los Angeles metropolitan area presents an ideal study area for analyzing transit-oriented development (TOD) and potential displacement. Since 1990, the Los Angeles Metropolitan Transit Authority (Metro) has opened 93 new rail-transit stations. An additional 17 are under construction.View the NCST Project Webpag

Reaction to the paper Tempest in a Teapot: The exaggerated problem of transport-related residential self-selection as a source of error in empirical studies

JTLU vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 81-86 (2014)n/

Quantitative evaluation of settlement sustainability policy (QESSP); forward planning for 26 Irish settlements

peer-reviewedUrban areas are increasingly associated with negative environmental impacts due to concentrated resource consumption; however urban areas also offer economies of scale in terms of service provision. There is no accepted mechanism to aid decision-makers in policy selection to determine where to promote population growth or how to select settlement specific policies to improve sustainability of urban areas. There is strong political desire for methods assessing policy implementation impact on overall sustainability targets, but this has proved challenging, as views on the meaning of sustainability vary, and methods developed satisfying scientists' needs for rigor are deemed too complex and inadequately transparent by decision-makers. Sustainability measurement is vital to check whether a new policy, decision or technical innovation is helpful in enhancing sustainability. By 2055 estimates indicate that 75 percent of the world population will live in urban areas, highlighting the importance of promoting low cost policy decisions providing greatest environmental benefit, with short implementation timescale. This paper describes an evidence-based method developed and piloted to address these drivers and provide a decision support system for planners and policy-makers developed for Irish settlements with population range 500-20,000, which may have application elsewhere.PUBLISHEDpeer-reviewe

Licence to be active: parental concerns and 10–11-year-old children's ability to be independently physically active

Background Physical activity independent of adult supervision is an important component of youth physical activity. This study examined parental attitudes to independent activity, factors that limit licence to be independently active and parental strategies to facilitate independent activity. Methods In-depth phone interviews were conducted with 24 parents (4 males) of 10–11-year-old children recruited from six primary schools in Bristol. Results Parents perceived that a lack of appropriate spaces in which to be active, safety, traffic, the proximity of friends and older children affected children’s ability to be independently physically active. The final year of primary school was perceived as a period when children should be afforded increased licence. Parents managed physical activity licence by placing time limits on activity, restricting activity to close to home, only allowing activity in groups or under adult supervision. Conclusions Strategies are needed to build children’s licence to be independently active; this could be achieved by developing parental self-efficacy to allow children to be active and developing structures such as safe routes to parks and safer play areas. Future programmes could make use of traffic-calming programmes as catalysts for safe independent physical activity