Confidence regions for the multinomial parameter with small sample size

Consider the observation of n iid realizations of an experiment with d>1 possible outcomes, which corresponds to a single observation of a multinomial distribution M(n,p) where p is an unknown discrete distribution on {1,...,d}. In many applications, the construction of a confidence region for p when n is small is crucial. This concrete challenging problem has a long history. It is well known that the confidence regions built from asymptotic statistics do not have good coverage when n is small. On the other hand, most available methods providing non-asymptotic regions with controlled coverage are limited to the binomial case d=2. In the present work, we propose a new method valid for any d>1. This method provides confidence regions with controlled coverage and small volume, and consists of the inversion of the "covering collection"' associated with level-sets of the likelihood. The behavior when d/n tends to infinity remains an interesting open problem beyond the scope of this work.Comment: Accepted for publication in Journal of the American Statistical Association (JASA

Upgrading School Buildings in Mexico with Social Participation: The Better Schools Programme

This review of Mexico’s Better Schools Programme was conducted in 2012 by the OECD Centre for Effective Learning Environments (CELE). In 2008, the federal government created the Programme to repair and improve the physical infrastructure of schools for basic education throughout Mexico. A key characteristic of the programme is social participation and the engagement of the each school community. The review team’s recommendations offer lessons to all governments investing in educational infrastructure to improve the quality of education

Modernising Secondary School Buildings in Portugal

The quality of school buildings is critically important in the drive for improving education. Good quality facilities provide teachers and students with supportive environments which are responsive to their changing needs and can make a real difference to learning and teaching. This report is a review of the Portuguese Secondary School Building Modernisation Programme (SMP), a major programme to rehabilitate the secondary schools in Portugal

A cohort study of influences, health outcomes and costs of patients' health-seeking behaviour for minor ailments from primary and emergency care settings

To compare health-related and cost-related outcomes of consultations for symptoms suggestive of minor ailments in emergency departments (EDs), general practices and community pharmacies

Smoking and use of primary care services : findings from a population-based cohort study linked with administrative claims data

Background: Available evidence suggests that smokers have a lower propensity than others to use primary care services. But previous studies have incorporated only limited adjustment for confounding and mediating factors such as income, access to services and health status. We used data from a large prospective cohort study (the 45 and Up Study), linked to administrative claims data, to quantify the relationship between smoking status and use of primary care services, including specific preventive services, in a contemporary Australian population. Methods: Baseline questionnaire data from the 45 and Up Study were linked to administrative claims (Medicare) data for the 12-month period following study entry. The main outcome measures were Medicare benefit claimed for unreferred services, out-of-pocket costs (OOPC) paid, and claims for specific preventive services (immunisations, health assessments, chronic disease management services, PSA tests and Pap smears). Rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals were estimated using a hierarchical series of models, adjusted for predisposing, access-and health-related factors. Separate hurdle (two part) regression models were constructed for Medicare benefit and OOPC. Poisson models with robust error variance were used to model use of each specific preventive service. Results: Participants included 254,382 people aged 45 years and over of whom 7.3% were current smokers. After adjustment for predisposing, access-and health-related factors, current smokers were very slightly less likely to have claimed Medicare benefit than never smokers. Among those who claimed benefit, current smokers claimed similar total benefit, but recent quitters claimed significantly greater benefit, compared to never-smokers. Current smokers were around 10% less likely than never smokers to have paid any OOPC. Current smokers were 15-20% less likely than never smokers to use immunisations, Pap smears and prostate specific antigen tests. Conclusions: Current smokers were less likely than others to use primary care services that incurred out of pocket costs, and specific preventive services. This was independent of a wide range of predisposing, access-and health-related factors, suggesting that smokers have a lower propensity to seek health care. Smokers may be missing out on preventive services from which they would differentially benefit

Does combined osteopenia/osteoporosis and sarcopenia confer greater risk of falls and fracture than either condition alone in older men? The Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project

Background It is unclear whether older men with osteopenia/osteoporosis and sarcopenia (so-called osteosarcopenia) are at greater risk of falls and fractures than those with either condition alone. Methods One thousand five hundred seventy-five community-dwelling men aged ≥70 years had appendicular lean mass, total hip and lumbar spine bone mineral density determined by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, and completed hand grip strength and gait speed tests. Osteopenia/osteoporosis was defined as a T-score at any site ≤−1.0 SD. Sarcopenia was defined using the European Working Group on Sarcopenia algorithm. Participants were contacted every 4 months for 6 ± 2 years to ascertain incident fractures (confirmed by radiographic reports) and for 2 years for incident falls. Results Prevalence of osteosarcopenia was 8%, while 34% of participants had osteopenia/osteoporosis alone and 7% had sarcopenia alone. Men with osteosarcopenia had significantly increased fall (incidence rate ratio: 1.41; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02 to 1.95) and fracture risk (hazard ratio: 1.87; 95% CI: 1.07 to 3.26) compared with men with neither osteopenia/osteoporosis nor sarcopenia. There was no statistical interaction between osteopenia/osteoporosis and sarcopenia, and falls and fracture risk were not different for osteosarcopenia compared with either condition alone (all p > .05). Conclusions Community-dwelling older men with combined osteopenia/osteoporosis and sarcopenia do not have increased falls and fracture risk compared with those with either condition. Further research is required to clarify whether the term “osteosarcopenia” has any meaning above and beyond either term alone and therefore potential clinical utility for falls and fracture prediction.NHMRC (project grant number 301916) and the Ageing and Alzheimer’s Institute. D.Scott is supported by a NHRMC Career Development Fellowship (GNT1123014