Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic.

The 2013-2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic 'gravity' model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already sown the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective at curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing that these countries were susceptible to substantial outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal that this large epidemic was a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help to inform interventions in future epidemics

Mental and physical health: Re-assessing the relationship with employment propensity

There is significant research demonstrating the labour market disadvantage experienced by the disabled community. Yet, relationships between wider ill-health concepts and employment are poorly investigated. This article presents an empirical investigation into the impacts of poor mental and physical health on the propensity to be employed. The results indicate that activity-limiting physical health and accomplishment-limiting mental health issues significantly affect the propensity to be employed. Further investigations reveal the significance of an interacted variable that captures the multiplicative effect of both physical and mental health, illustrating that the combined effect of both health domains can be more influential than separate pathways. Additional empirical analysis highlights gender and ethnicity divides. It is also found that mental health is mostly exogenous to employment propensity. This research provides evidence that mental and physical health related issues can lead to economic exclusion. © The Author(s) 2014