Democratization’s Risk Premium: Partisan and Opportunistic Political Business Cycle Effects on Sovereign Ratings in Developing Countries

We use partisan and opportunistic political business cycle (“PBC”) considerations to develop a framework for explaining election-period decisions by credit rating agencies (“agencies”) publishing developing country sovereign risk-ratings (“ratings”). We test six hypotheses derived from the framework with 482 agency ratings for 19 countries holding 39 presidential elections from 1987-2000. We find that ratings are linked to the partisan orientation of incumbents facing election and to expectations of incumbent victory. Consistent with the framework, rating effects are sometimes greater for right-wing compared to left-wing incumbents, perhaps, because partisan PBC considerations with right-wing (left-wing) incumbents reinforce (counteract) opportunistic PBC considerations.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39931/3/wp546.pd

DEMOCRACY’S SPREAD: Elections and Sovereign Debt in Developing Countries

We use partisan and opportunistic political business cycle (“PBC”) considerations to develop and test a framework for explaining election-period changes in credit spreads for developing country sovereign bonds. Pre-election bond spread trends are significantly linked both to the partisan orientation of incumbents facing election and to expectations of incumbent victory. Bond spreads for right-wing (leftwing) incumbents increase (decrease) as the likelihood of left-wing (right-wing) challenger victory increases. For right-wing incumbent partisan and opportunistic PBC effects bondholder risk perceptions are mutually reinforcing. For left-wing incumbents partisan PBC effects dominate bondholder risk perceptions compared to opportunistic PBC effects.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39961/3/wp575.pd

Democratization’s Risk Premium: Partisan and Opportunistic Political Business Cycle Effects on Sovereign Ratings in Developing Countries

We use partisan and opportunistic political business cycle (“PBC”) considerations to develop a framework for explaining election-period decisions by credit rating agencies (“agencies”) publishing developing country sovereign risk-ratings (“ratings”). We test six hypotheses derived from the framework with 482 agency ratings for 19 countries holding 39 presidential elections from 1987-2000. We find that ratings are linked to the partisan orientation of incumbents facing election and to expectations of incumbent victory. Consistent with the framework, rating effects are sometimes greater for right-wing compared to left-wing incumbents, perhaps, because partisan PBC considerations with right-wing (left-wing) incumbents reinforce (counteract) opportunistic PBC considerations.economics, elections, developing countries, ratings

Mitigating the effects of hydrologic variability in Ethiopia: an assessment of investments in agricultural and transportation infrastructure, energy and hydroclimatic forecasting

Ethiopia is at a critical crossroads with a burgeoning population, a severely depressed national economy, insufficient agricultural production, and a minimal number of devel- oped energy sources. This study assesses how investment in and management of water resources, together with related policy reforms, may mitigate the negative effects of hydrologic variability on the performance and structure of the Ethiopian economy. This is accomplished by identifying interventions both aimed at managing hydrologic variabil- ity, and at decreasing the vulnerability of the economy to potential shocks. The areas of focus include increased infrastructure for agricultural irrigation and roads, large-scale hydropower generation, and a precipitation forecast model. A dynamic climate agro-economic model of Ethiopia is utilized to assess irrigation and road construction investment strategies in comparison to a baseline scenario over a 12-year time horizon. Although both investments create positive economic boosts, the irrigation investment, on average, slightly outperforms the road investment, producing an average gdP growth rate of 0.95% versus 0.75% over the baseline scenario, along with lower associated poverty and malnutrition rates. The benefit-cost (b-c) ratios for the projects also favor the irrigation investment. The upper Blue nile basin harbors considerable untapped potential for irrigation and large-scale hydropower development and expansion. An integrated model is employed to assess potential conditions based on hydrologic variability and streamflow policies. The model indicates that large-scale development typically produces b-c ratios from 1.6- 2.1 under historical climate regimes for the projects specified. Climate change scenar- ios indicate potential for small b-c increases, but reflect possible significant decreases. stochastic modeling of scenarios representing a doubling of the historical frequency of El niño events indicates b-c ratios as low as 1.0 due to a lack of timely water. An evaluation of expected energy growth rates reinforces the need for significant economic planning and the necessity of securing energy trade contracts prior to extensive devel- opment. A Ramsey growth model for energy development specifies project multipliers on total gdP over the 100-year simulation ranging from 1.7-5.2, for various climatologic conditions. The Blue nile basin also holds possibility for improvement in rain-fed agricultural pro- duction through precipitation forecasting. one-season lead predictors for forecasting of the Kiremt season precipitation are identified from the large scale ocean-atmosphere- land system. This forecast is of tremendous value, giving farmers crucial indication of potential future climatic conditions, and is a solid improvement over climatology, as currently utilized by the Ethiopian national Meteorological Institute. Using crop yield potential from the 1961-2000 period and general seed costs, farmers basing cropping decisions on the forecast model, in lieu of climatology, would have experienced superior net incomes

Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia:

"Extreme interannual variability of precipitation within Ethiopia is not uncommon, inducing droughts or floods and often creating serious repercussions on agricultural and non-agricultural commodities. An agro-economic model, including mean climate variables, was developed to assess irrigation and road construction investment strategies in comparison to a baseline scenario over a 12-year time horizon. The motivation for this work is to evaluate whether the inclusion of climate variability in the model has a significant effect on prospective investment strategies and the resulting country-wide economy. The mean climate model is transformed into a variable climate model by dynamically adding yearly climate-yield factors, which influence agricultural production levels and linkages to non-agricultural goods. Nine sets of variable climate data are processed by the new model to produce an ensemble of potential economic prediction indicators. Analysis of gross domestic product and poverty rate reveal a significant overestimation of the country's future welfare by the mean climate model method, in comparison to probability density functions created from the variable climate ensemble. The ensemble is further utilized to demonstrate risk assessment capabilities. The addition of climate variability to the agro-economic model provides a framework, including realistic ranges of economic values, from which Ethiopian planners may make strategic decisions." Authors' abstractClimate variability, Water, Droughts, Flooding, Irrigation Economic aspects, Road construction Economic aspects, Investments, Economic situation, Agro-economic model,

Kontra Horowitza: U korist prava na reparacije za ropstvo crncima

Horowitz rejects reparations for African Americans. We demonstrate that their heirs are entitled to the property illegitimately obtained by the slave owners. When we operate under the libertarian homesteading principle, the land should be redistributed back to the people who worked and tilled it first. That is, the black slaves. Horowitz’s claims against reparations serve as a poor refutation towards the reparations argument. African Americans are entitled to the “40 acres and a mule” that was promised, yet never fulfilled. We rely upon libertarian theory to clearly understand the case for reparations.Horowitz ne prihvaća pravo na reparacije za ropstvo Afroamerikancima. Mi pokazujemo da njihovi nasljednici imaju pravo na imovinu koju su nelegitimno stekli robovlasnici. Prema libertarijanskom načelu homesteadinga, zemlju treba preraspodijeliti unatrag, ljudima koji su je prvi i obrađivali, odnosno crnim robovima. Horowitzove tvrdnje protiv reparacija jedva da su pokušaj pobijanja argumenata u korist reparacija. Afroamerikanci imaju pravo na tih “40 jutara i mazgu”, kako je obećano, ali nikada ispunjeno. Oslanjamo se na libertarijansku teoriju kako bismo jasno razumjeli problem prava na reparacije

Implications of climate change on hydrological extremes in the Blue Nile basin: A review

AbstractStudy regionThe Blue Nile river basin in East Africa.Study focusThis review paper presents the current understanding of hydrological extremes in the Blue Nile River basin under historic and future climate conditions, largely drawing on research outputs over the past decade. Characteristics of precipitation and streamflow extremes, including historic trends and future projections, are considered.New hydrological insightsThe review illustrates some discrepancy among research outputs. For the historical context, this is partially related to the period and length of data analyzed and the failure to consider the influence of multi-decadal oscillations. Consequently, we show that annual cycle of Blue Nile flow has not changed in the past five decades. For the future context, discrepancy is partially attributable to the various and differing climate and hydrological models included and the downscaling techniques applied. The need to prudently consider sources of uncertainty and potential causes of bias in historical trend and climate change impact research is highlighted

Maschinelles Spielen im Klassiker Asteroids

Das Ende der 80er Jahre veröffentlichte, auf Reaktion und Planung basierende Spiel Asteroids, gilt inzwischen als eines der erfolgreichsten Computerspiele aller Zeiten. Es eignet sich hervorragend als Testplattform für die verschiedensten KI-Konzepte, die anhand erreichter Punktezahlen verglichen werden können. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird ein adaptives physikalisches Weltmodell eingeführt, mit dessen Hilfe eine optimale Verhaltensstrategie gefunden werden kann. Mittels einer heuristischen Suche wird eine Aktionsfolge gefunden, die in minimaler Zeit versucht, die Punkte zu maximieren. Die hier vorgestellten Ideen wurden im Programm jAsteroidsAI realisiert, welches erfolgreich am Wettbewerb der Computerzeitschrift c’t 2008 teilnahm und in fünf Minuten eine Spitzenpunktezahl von 85:000 erreichte