Climate change impact on the leaching of a heavy metal contamination in a small lowland catchment

The objective of this study was to assess the potential effects of climate change on the transport of pre-existing spatially-extensive trace metal contamination to a small lowland catchment in the south of the Netherlands. The area surrounding the Keersop has been contaminated with heavy metals by the atmospheric emissions of four zinc ore smelters. This heavy metal contamination, e.g. with Cd and Zn, has accumulated in the topsoil and leaches towards surface water system, especially during high groundwater levels and high discharge rates. Simulated projections of future climate predict increased precipitation in winter, less precipitation in summer, and higher air temperatures throughout the year. These climate change scenarios projected lower groundwater levels and lower discharge rates. As a result of lower groundwater levels, transport of Cd and Zn towards surface water is also projected to decrease in the future climate. These results indicate a positive effect of climate change on a limited aspect of surface water quality

Synoptic-scale precursors of extreme UK summer 3-hourly rainfall

This is the final version. Available on open access from AGU via the DOI in this recordThe synoptic-scale meteorological conditions leading up to the 30 most extreme sub-daily summer rain events for two regions of the UK (north-west and south-east) were examined for the period 1979-2013. Using a recently available, quality controlled, national hourly rain gauge dataset, we were able to identify extreme 3-hour rainfall accumulations that may be indicative of flash flooding. Composites of the state of the atmosphere leading up to these dates were produced to investigate synoptic-scale processes, thus potentially allowing for them to be identified in coarse resolution re-analyses and in climate models. The results show that the two regions have different dominant synoptic-scale conditions leading to extreme 3-hour rainfall, which is thought to be related to the type of rainfall typically experienced in each region. In particular, positive anomalies in mean sea level pressure and the geopotential height at 200hPa over the UK are associated with extreme rainfall in the north-west, where the position of the westerly jet is also important. For the south-east, no clear anomalous synoptic-scale conditions could be identified, however localised moisture sources and unstable air masses were observed in association with extremes. These results indicate the importance of better understanding of both synoptic-scale and thermodynamic drivers of short-duration extreme rainfall, with potential implications in forecasting and flood warning, as well as for understanding the representation of key processes by regional climate models.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)European Research CouncilWolfson FoundationRoyal Societ

Regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation for Sicily (Italy)

The analysis of extreme precipitation has always been included among most relevant hydrological applications because of the several important activities linked to the availability of tools for the estimation of extreme rainfall quantiles. These activities include the design of hydraulic civil structures and the evaluation and management of hydraulic and hydrological risk. In this study a frequency analysis of annual maxima precipitation measurements has been carried out for the area of Sicily (Italy). A typical hierarchical regional approach has been adopted for the parameter estimation procedure based on the L-moments method. The identification of homogeneous regions within the procedure has been pursued with a data driven procedure constituted by a principal component analysis of an ensemble of selected auxiliary variables, and a K-means cluster analysis algorithm. Auxiliary variables comprise meteo-climatic information and a representation of the average seasonal distribution of intense events. Results have been evaluated by means of a Monte Carlo experiment based on the comparison between at-site and regional fitted frequency distributions. Moreover, results have been compared with previous analyses performed for the same area. The study provides an updated tool for the modelling of extreme precipitation for the area of Sicily (Italy), with different features respect to previous tools both in terms of definition of homogeneous zones and in terms of parameters of the frequency distribution. Meteo-climatic information and the seasonality of extreme events retrieved from the dataset has been proficuously exploited in the analysis

Integrating Brain and Biomechanical Models—A New Paradigm for Understanding Neuro-muscular Control

To date, realistic models of how the central nervous system governs behavior have been restricted in scope to the brain, brainstem or spinal column, as if these existed as disembodied organs. Further, the model is often exercised in relation to an in vivo physiological experiment with input comprising an impulse, a periodic signal or constant activation, and output as a pattern of neural activity in one or more neural populations. Any link to behavior is inferred only indirectly via these activity patterns. We argue that to discover the principles of operation of neural systems, it is necessary to express their behavior in terms of physical movements of a realistic motor system, and to supply inputs that mimic sensory experience. To do this with confidence, we must connect our brain models to neuro-muscular models and provide relevant visual and proprioceptive feedback signals, thereby closing the loop of the simulation. This paper describes an effort to develop just such an integrated brain and biomechanical system using a number of pre-existing models. It describes a model of the saccadic oculomotor system incorporating a neuromuscular model of the eye and its six extraocular muscles. The position of the eye determines how illumination of a retinotopic input population projects information about the location of a saccade target into the system. A pre-existing saccadic burst generator model was incorporated into the system, which generated motoneuron activity patterns suitable for driving the biomechanical eye. The model was demonstrated to make accurate saccades to a target luminance under a set of environmental constraints. Challenges encountered in the development of this model showed the importance of this integrated modeling approach. Thus, we exposed shortcomings in individual model components which were only apparent when these were supplied with the more plausible inputs available in a closed loop design. Consequently we were able to suggest missing functionality which the system would require to reproduce more realistic behavior. The construction of such closed-loop animal models constitutes a new paradigm of computational neurobehavior and promises a more thoroughgoing approach to our understanding of the brain’s function as a controller for movement and behavior

Carbon emission savings and short-term health care impacts from telemedicine: An evaluation in epilepsy

Objective: Health systems make a sizeable contribution to national emissions of greenhouse gases that contribute to global climate change. The UK National Health Service is committed to being a net zero emitter by 2040, and a potential contribution to this target could come from reductions in patient travel. Achieving this will require actions at many levels. We sought to determine potential savings and risks over the short term from telemedicine through virtual clinics. Methods: During the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-2-CoV) pandemic, scheduled face-to-face epilepsy clinics at a specialist site were replaced by remote teleclinics. We used a standard methodology applying conversion factors to calculate emissions based on the total saved travel distance. A further conversion factor was used to derive emissions associated with electricity consumption to deliver remote clinics from which net savings could be calculated. Patients’ records and clinicians were interrogated to identify any adverse clinical outcomes. Results: We found that enforced telemedicine delivery for over 1200 patients resulted in the saving of ~224 000 km of travel with likely avoided emissions in the range of 35 000–40 000 kg carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) over a six and half month period. Emissions arising directly from remote delivery were calculated to be <200 kg CO2e (~0.5% of those for travel), representing a significant net reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Only one direct adverse outcome was identified, with some additional benefits identified anecdotally. Significance: The use of telemedicine can make a contribution toward reduced emissions in the health care sector and, in the delivery of specialized epilepsy services, had minimal adverse clinical outcomes over the short term. However, these outcomes will likely vary with clinic locations, medical specialties and conditions