Overdiagnosis and overtreatment of breast cancer: Estimates of overdiagnosis from two trials of mammographic screening for breast cancer

Randomised controlled trials have shown that the policy of mammographic screening confers a substantial and significant reduction in breast cancer mortality. This has often been accompanied, however, by an increase in breast cancer incidence, particularly during the early years of a screening programme, which has led to concerns about overdiagnosis, that is to say, the diagnosis of disease that, if left undetected and therefore untreated, would not become symptomatic. We used incidence data from two randomised controlled trials of mammographic screening, the Swedish Two-county Trial and the Gothenburg Trial, to establish the timing and magnitude of any excess incidence of invasive disease and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) in the study groups, to ascertain whether the excess incidence of DCIS reported early in a screening trial is balanced by a later deficit in invasive disease and provide explicit estimates of the rate of 'real' and non-progressive 'overdiagnosed' tumours from the study groups of the trials. We used a multistate model for overdiagnosis and used Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate the parameters. After taking into account the effect of lead time, we estimated that less than 5% of cases diagnosed at prevalence screen and less than 1% of cases diagnosed at incidence screens are being overdiagnosed. Overall, we estimate overdiagnosis to be around 1% of all cases diagnosed in screened populations. These estimates are, however, subject to considerable uncertainty. Our results suggest that overdiagnosis in mammography screening is a minor phenomenon, but further studies with very large numbers are required for more precise estimation

Percentage density, Wolfe's and Tabár's mammographic patterns: agreement and association with risk factors for breast cancer

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this report was to classify mammograms according to four methods and to examine their agreement and their relationship to selected risk factors for breast cancer. METHOD: Mammograms and epidemiological data were collected from 987 women, aged 55 to 71 years, attending the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program. Two readers each classified the mammograms according to a quantitative method (Cumulus or Madena software) and one reader according to two qualitative methods (Wolfe and Tabár patterns). Mammograms classified in the reader-specific upper quartile of percentage density, Wolfe's P2 and DY patterns, or Tabár's IV and V patterns, were categorized as high-risk density patterns and the remaining mammograms as low-risk density patterns. We calculated intra-reader and inter-reader agreement and estimated prevalence odds ratios of having high-risk mammographic density patterns according to selected risk factors for breast cancer. RESULTS: The Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.86 for the two quantitative density measurements. There was moderate agreement between the Wolfe and Tabár classifications (Kappa = 0.51; 95% confidence interval 0.46 to 0.56). Age at screening, number of children and body mass index (BMI) showed a statistically significant inverse relationship with high-risk density patterns for all four methods (all P < 0.05). After adjustment for percentage density, the Wolfe classification was not associated with any of the risk factors for breast cancer, whereas the association with number of children and BMI remained statistically significant for the Tabár classification. Adjustment for Wolfe or Tabár patterns did not alter the associations between these risk factors and percentage mammographic density. CONCLUSION: The four assessments methods seem to capture the same overall associations with risk factors for breast cancer. Our results indicate that the quantitative methods convey additional information over the qualitative methods

Different measures of smoking exposure and mammographic density in postmenopausal Norwegian women: a cross-sectional study

Background: Recent cohort studies have suggested an increased risk of breast cancer with long duration of smoking, and with smoking initiation before first birth. Cigarette smoking may have both carcinogenic effects and antiestrogenic effects on the breast tissue. We decided to examine the relationship between different measures of smoking exposure and mammographic density. Methods: Lifetime smoking history was collected through interview and questionnaires among 907 postmenopausal participants in the Tromsø Mammography and Breast Cancer study. The mammograms were obtained from the governmental Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program. Mammograms were classified according to the percentage and absolute mammographic densities using a previously validated computerassisted method. Results:Sixty-five percent of the women reported having ever smoked cigarettes, while 34% were current smokers. After adjustment for age, age at first birth, parity, age at menopause, postmenopausal hormone therapy use, and body mass index, smoking was inversely associated with both measures of mammographic density (both trends P < 0.01). Both current smokers and former smokers had significantly lower adjusted mean percentage mammographic density compared with never smokers (P = 0.003 and P = 0.006, respectively). An inverse dose–response relationship with mammographic density was found between both the number of cigarettes and the number of pack-years smoked among current smokers. Current smokers who smoked 11 cigarettes or more daily had a 3.7% absolute (36% relative difference) lower percentage mammographic density compared with current smokers who smoked seven cigarettes or less daily (P = 0.008). When former smokers were stratified according to time since smoking cessation, we found that women who had stopped smoking less than 24 years ago had a significantly lower mean percentage mammographic density compared with never smokers (P < 0.001). Conclusion: We found modest inverse dose–response associations between numbers of cigarettes and of pack-years smoked and both measures of mammographic density among current smokers. Former smokers who had stopped smoking less than 24 years ago also had a statistically significantly lower mean percentage mammographic density when compared with never smokers. These findings are consistent with an antiestrogenic effect of cigarette smoking on the breast tissue

Reduced breast cancer mortality after 20+ years of follow-up in the Swedish randomized controlled mammography trials in Malmö, Stockholm, and Göteborg

Objective: To analyze the age- and trial-specific effects of the breast cancer screening trials with mammography in Malmö, Stockholm, and Göteborg. Methods: The original trial files were linked to the Swedish Cancer and Cause of Death Registers to obtain date of breast cancer diagnosis and date and cause of death. Relative risks and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using the evaluation model (only breast cancers diagnosed between date of randomization and date when the first screening round of the control group was completed were included in the analysis). Results: Women aged 40–70 at randomization in the Malmö I and II, Stockholm, and Göteborg trials were followed-up for an average of 30, 22, 25, and 24 years, respectively. The overview of all trials resulted in a significant decrease of 15% in breast cancer mortality. The variation by consecutive 10-year age group at randomization was small—from 21% in the age group 40–49 to 11% in the age group 50–59. After adjustment for age, there was a significant reduction in breast cancer mortality in the Göteborg trial (26%), and a non-significant reduction in the Malmö I and II and Stockholm trials (12%, 15%, and 5.8%, respectively). Conclusions: The overview showed a 15% significant relative reduction in breast cancer mortality due to invitation to mammography screening. Heterogeneity in age, trial time, attendance rates, and length of screening intervals may have contributed to the variation in effect between the trials