Future narratives for two locations in the Barents region

What does the future look like from the perspective of municipalities in various locations in the Barents region? What climatic, social and environmental challenges might there be, and how might local people respond? This report documents the results from two workshops held in Kirovsk and Bodø in 2015, addressing above questions. These workshops are part of a series of four workshops across the Barents region with the aim to build visions of different local futures in the Barents region under different climatic and socio-economic contexts. All workshops use the same methodology and research question, and connect local change to global scenarios. A secondary aim of this report is to offer a description of and reflection on the methods employed as a basis for further development of the approach. The method follows a bottom-up, participatory scenario building approach, and is based on identifying local drivers of change which are of especial importance or uncertainty in the region. These locally important drivers are then evaluated in the form of narratives in context of four different global scenarios of alternative futures of societal development, known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The entire exercise, from driver identification to narrative development, involves a mixture of local actors together with researchers, using knowledge and understanding from both communities. The resulting narratives highlight locally important issues different from pan-Arctic evaluations of future change. They also show that local development is perceived as closely linked to global processes, such as changes related to climate, but especially socio-economic factors such as demography, resource markets or politics

MPA in Labor: Securing the Pearl Cays of Nicaragua

Implementation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) has always a step-zero, i.e., an initial phase when the idea is incepted, communicated and negotiated among stakeholders. What happens during this phase is likely to have an impact later on. If not done right, the management of the MPA may encounter problems at later stage that will be difficult to correct. Inspired by this working theory, this article describes the effort to establish the Pearl Cays off the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua as a protected area. This case-study illustrates the critical actions to be taken during step-zero, i.e., what needs to be considered and done before an MPA is formally declared. The area investigated consists of a number of small islands (cays) and coral reefs, fishing grounds and marine turtle nesting areas. Throughout history, the cays have played an important role in sustaining livelihoods of nearby communities. Although the idea of an MPA was originally conservation, the communities saw it as an opportunity to regain ownership and control of the cays. By Nicaraguan law, in order to establish protected areas, consultation and approval from local people is required. In the case of the Pearl Cays, this has proved difficult. The article demonstrates how MPA initiatives must sometimes relate to already ongoing complex social processes in the area where they are to be instigated

Narrative matters for sustainability: the transformative role of storytelling in realizing 1.5°C futures

© 2017 Elsevier B.V. Narratives structure human comprehension, and shape our ability to imagine and achieve transformed futures within the 1.5 degree threshold. Examining tensions between narrative as a communication technique and as a spatial-temporal cognitive structure, this paper brings these different understandings together in a conversation for transformative global change. We suggest that filling the ‘information deficit’ with improved communication of a single, unifying and global narrative about Earth systems is necessary but insufficient: filling the ‘narrative deficit’ requires engagement with the protagonists, timelines, and places that provide situated agency in identifying and navigating uncertainty and risk. Transformations to sustainability will require recognizing and engaging multiple, diverse experiences of agency, a process that attention to narrative can help facilitate

The reverse favorite--longshot bias in the National Hockey League: Do bettors still score on longshots?

Sports betting and racetrack markets continue to be utilized by academic researchers to provide insights into theories relating to more complex speculative markets. Previous investigations have focused on testing the efficient markets hypotheses and behavioral biases of the participants. This paper investigates the market efficiency of the National Hockey League (NHL) goal totals over/under betting market. The market is found to be inefficient and simple wagering strategies are identified that result in profitable returns

Blood pressure at age 40 predicts carotid atherosclerosis two decades later: Data from the Akershus Cardiac Examination 1950 Study

Objective: We assessed the impact of a single time-point measurement of SBP, DBP and pulse pressure at the age of 40, on carotid plaque burden, echolucent plaques and carotid intima–media thickness late midlife. Methods: Individuals participating in two separate studies, 23 years apart, defined our cohort (n = 2714). ‘The Age 40 Program’, a nationwide Norwegian cardiovascular screening survey, performed 1985–1999, assessed cardiovascular risk factors and lifestyle variables at age 40. ‘The ACE 1950 Study’, a population-based cohort study on individuals born in 1950, performed 2012–2015, included ultrasound examinations of the carotid arteries. Blood pressure (BP) determinants of carotid atherosclerosis were assessed by regression models adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors at age 40, and late midlife BP. Results: The participants, 50.3% women, had a mean age of 40 (SD 0.3) years in the first study, and 64 (SD 0.6) years in the second. At age 40, mean SBP was 128 (SD 14) mmHg, mean DBP was 78 (SD 10) mmHg and mean pulse pressure was 50 (SD 9) mmHg. SBP and DBP at age 40 predicted carotid plaque burden in late midlife. Only DBP predicted echolucent plaques, and none of the BP components predicted carotid intima–media thickness. Conclusion: A single time-point measurement of SBP and DBP at age 40 is associated with carotid plaque burden late midlife, also after adjustment for other cardiovascular risk factors at age 40, and of late midlife BP. Our findings emphasize the strong association between BP and atherosclerosis

Carotid Atherosclerosis is Associated with Middle Cerebral Artery Pulsatility Index

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Pulsatility index (PI) in the middle cerebral artery (MCA) is considered a measure of peripheral vascular resistance. Several established cardiovascular risk factors are common for both MCA PI and carotid atherosclerosis. Accordingly, in the present study we hypothesized an association between ultrasound‐derived indices of carotid atherosclerosis and MCA PI. METHODS All residents in Akershus County, born in 1950, were invited to a cardiovascular examination, The Akershus Cardiac Examination (ACE) 1950 Study (2012‐2015). A thorough ultrasound examination was performed to assess indices of atherosclerosis in the carotid arteries, and PI in the MCAs. In all, 3154 (85.1%) had adequate transcranial and carotid data. Associations between indices of carotid atherosclerosis and MCA PI were assessed by regression analyses adjusted for established cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS Mean age was 64 (standard deviation [SD]: .6) years, and 1,357 (43%) were women. Mean MCA PI was .97 (SD: .17). Participants in the upper quartile of MCA PI had higher pulse pressure, more frequently hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and a history of coronary artery disease. Both carotid plaque score (B .007 [95% CI: .003‐.010]) and carotid intimamedia thickness (B .173 [95% CI: .120‐.226]) were significantly associated with MCA PI in adjusted analysis. The model R 2 was .055. CONCLUSION In a population‐based sample of middle‐aged adults, ultrasound‐derived indices of carotid atherosclerosis were independently associated with MCA PI. However, the overall explained variance of MCA PI was low, suggesting other factors than atherosclerosis and cardiovascular risk factors to play an important role for MCA PI

Prevalence of carotid plaque in a 63- to 65-Year-Old Norwegian cohort from the general population: The ACE (Akershus Cardiac Examination) 1950 study

Background New data on extracranial carotid atherosclerosis are needed, as improved ultrasound techniques may detect more atherosclerosis, the definition of plaque has changed over the years, and better cardiovascular risk control in the population may have changed patterns of carotid arterial wall disease and actual prevalence of established cardiovascular disease. We investigated the prevalence of atherosclerotic carotid plaques and carotid intima–media thickness (cIMT) and their relation to cardiovascular risk factors in a middle‐aged cohort from the general population. Methods and Results We performed carotid ultrasound in 3683 participants who were born in 1950 and included in a population‐based Norwegian study. Carotid plaque and cIMT were assessed according to the Mannheim Carotid Intima–Media Thickness and Plaque Consensus, and a carotid plaque score was used to calculate atherosclerotic burden. The participants were aged 63 to 65 years, and 49% were women. The prevalence of established cardiovascular disease was low (10%), but 62% had hypertension, 53% had hypercholesterolemia, 11% had diabetes mellitus, and 23% were obese. Mean cIMT was 0.73±0.11 mm, and atherosclerotic carotid plaques were present in 87% of the participants (median plaque score: 2; interquartile range: 3). Most of the cardiovascular risk factors, with the exception of diabetes mellitus, obesity and waist–hip ratio, were independently associated with the plaque score. In contrast, only sex, hypertension, obesity, current smoking, and cerebrovascular disease were associated with cIMT. Conclusions We found very high prevalence of carotid plaque in this middle‐aged population, and our data support a greater association between cardiovascular risk factors and plaque burden, compared with cIMT

Prevalence of carotid plaque in a 63- to 65-Year-Old Norwegian cohort from the general population: The ACE (Akershus Cardiac Examination) 1950 study

Background: New data on extracranial carotid atherosclerosis are needed, as improved ultrasound techniques may detect more atherosclerosis, the definition of plaque has changed over the years, and better cardiovascular risk control in the population may have changed patterns of carotid arterial wall disease and actual prevalence of established cardiovascular disease. We investigated the prevalence of atherosclerotic carotid plaques and carotid intima–media thickness (cIMT) and their relation to cardiovascular risk factors in a middle‐aged cohort from the general population. Methods and Results: We performed carotid ultrasound in 3683 participants who were born in 1950 and included in a population‐based Norwegian study. Carotid plaque and cIMT were assessed according to the Mannheim Carotid Intima–Media Thickness and Plaque Consensus, and a carotid plaque score was used to calculate atherosclerotic burden. The participants were aged 63 to 65 years, and 49% were women. The prevalence of established cardiovascular disease was low (10%), but 62% had hypertension, 53% had hypercholesterolemia, 11% had diabetes mellitus, and 23% were obese. Mean cIMT was 0.73±0.11 mm, and atherosclerotic carotid plaques were present in 87% of the participants (median plaque score: 2; interquartile range: 3). Most of the cardiovascular risk factors, with the exception of diabetes mellitus, obesity and waist–hip ratio, were independently associated with the plaque score. In contrast, only sex, hypertension, obesity, current smoking, and cerebrovascular disease were associated with cIMT. Conclusions: We found very high prevalence of carotid plaque in this middle‐aged population, and our data support a greater association between cardiovascular risk factors and plaque burden, compared with cIMT

Plasma trans fatty acid levels, cardiovascular risk factors and lifestyle: Results from the Akershus cardiac examination 1950 study

Intake of industrially produced trans fatty acids (iTFAs) has previously been associated with dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, hypertension and inflammation, as well as increased cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality. iTFA intake declined in Norway after the introduction of legislative bans against iTFA consumption. However, the relationship between the current iTFA intake and CV health is unclear. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between current iTFA intake, reflected by plasma iTFA levels, and established CV risk factors. We also examined the associations between plasma ruminant TFA levels and CV risk factors. In this cross-sectional study, we included 3706 participants from a Norwegian general population, born in 1950 and residing in Akershus County, Norway. The statistical method was multivariable linear regression. Plasma iTFA levels were inversely associated with serum triglycerides (p < 0.001), fasting plasma glucose (p < 0.001), body mass index (p < 0.001), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (p = 0.001 and p = 0.03) and C-reactive protein (p = 0.001). Furthermore, high plasma iTFA levels were associated with higher education and less smoking and alcohol consumption. We found that plasma ruminant trans fatty acids (rTFA) levels were favorably associated with CV risk factors. Furthermore, plasma iTFA levels were inversely associated with CV risk factors. However, our results might have been driven by lifestyle factors. Overall, our findings suggest that the current low intake of iTFAs in Norway does not constitute a threat to CV health