Gastrointestinal symptoms during the first week of intensive care are associated with poor outcome : a prospective multicentre study

The study aimed to develop a gastrointestinal (GI) dysfunction score predicting 28-day mortality for adult patients needing mechanical ventilation (MV). 377 adult patients from 40 ICUs with expected duration of MV for at least 6 h were prospectively studied. Predefined GI symptoms, intra-abdominal pressures (IAP), feeding details, organ dysfunction and treatment were documented on days 1, 2, 4 and 7. The number of simultaneous GI symptoms was higher in nonsurvivors on each day. Absent bowel sounds and GI bleeding were the symptoms most significantly associated with mortality. None of the GI symptoms alone was an independent predictor of mortality, but gastrointestinal failure (GIF)-defined as three or more GI symptoms-on day 1 in ICU was independently associated with a threefold increased risk of mortality. During the first week in ICU, GIF occurred in 24 patients (6.4 %) and was associated with higher 28-day mortality (62.5 vs. 28.9 %, P = 0.001). Adding the created subscore for GI dysfunction (based on the number of GI symptoms) to SOFA score did not improve mortality prediction (day 1 AUROC 0.706 [95 % CI 0.647-0.766] versus 0.703 [95 % CI 0.643-0.762] in SOFA score alone). An increasing number of GI symptoms independently predicts 28 day mortality with moderate accuracy. However, it was not possible to develop a GI dysfunction score, improving the performance of the SOFA score either due to data set limitations, definition problems, or possibly indicating that GI dysfunction is often secondary and not the primary cause of other organ failure

Utvärdering av distributionsstrukturer för utomeuropeisk export av frysta livsmedelsprodukter.

The meat producers of the western world needs to develop their export organizations and to streamline their physical distribution in order to take new market shares on the fast growing overseas markets. HKScan is one of those meat producing companies, the group has businesses in Finland, Sweden, Denmark and the Baltic countries. A part of their sales goes frozen on overseas export by container sea freight. Lately the logistics management of HKScan has been interested in investigating the effects of centralizing the physical distribution for the overseas export from Sweden and Denmark. This leads to the purpose of this study, which is:  “For HKScan, develop and apply a model that evaluates distribution structures for overseas export of frozen food regarding total cost, delivery service, environmental impact and regulations.” The case study included comparison between the current distribution structure for HKScan and three pre-determined scenarios. The current setup consists of multiple warehouses in both countries. In the first scenario the distribution structure is centralized to include one warehouse per country. In the second scenario, the total export flow of products from both Sweden and Denmark is redirected and centralized to one warehouse in Denmark. In the third scenario, the total export flow of products from both Sweden and Denmark is instead redirected and centralized to one warehouse in Sweden. To evaluate and compare the different distribution structures a general model was first created by combining different theoretical models and adapting them to the context of overseas distribution for frozen food. The study then included the three phases of developing the model to fit the case company, applying the model on the case company and then to finally evaluating the model. The resulting model, which was the outcome of the development process, can be seen below. The model illustrates the different included elements. By then applying the model onto the case company, HKScan, it was found that a centralization to a joint warehouse in Denmark would make total cost savings of several percents. In addition, this scenario would increase the total service level. However, the environmental impact would be increased due to long cross-border road transport distances and longer land and sea transports from the warehouse. In addition, it was not possible to fully investigate whether such a distribution would be possible from a regulatory point of view.  A centralization in each country would have minor regulatory issues, it would lead to the smallest environmental impact and have a slight increase in service levels as well as a reduction for the total cost of one percent. The evaluation of the model showed that it produces reasonable results with the regulatory elements being the hardest to evaluate for the different scenarios. Regarding the detail level, the veterinary element could be accounted for by the warehousing element and the sea freight element split into transport from warehouse to domestic port and sea freight from domestic port to the destination port. The box-model, containing twelve elements, can be seen as generalizable for evaluating distribution structures in similar contexts, Overseas export of frozen food. However, the calculation performed within the model do probably only apply to the specific scenarios in the study

Utvärdering av distributionsstrukturer för utomeuropeisk export av frysta livsmedelsprodukter.

The meat producers of the western world needs to develop their export organizations and to streamline their physical distribution in order to take new market shares on the fast growing overseas markets. HKScan is one of those meat producing companies, the group has businesses in Finland, Sweden, Denmark and the Baltic countries. A part of their sales goes frozen on overseas export by container sea freight. Lately the logistics management of HKScan has been interested in investigating the effects of centralizing the physical distribution for the overseas export from Sweden and Denmark. This leads to the purpose of this study, which is:  “For HKScan, develop and apply a model that evaluates distribution structures for overseas export of frozen food regarding total cost, delivery service, environmental impact and regulations.” The case study included comparison between the current distribution structure for HKScan and three pre-determined scenarios. The current setup consists of multiple warehouses in both countries. In the first scenario the distribution structure is centralized to include one warehouse per country. In the second scenario, the total export flow of products from both Sweden and Denmark is redirected and centralized to one warehouse in Denmark. In the third scenario, the total export flow of products from both Sweden and Denmark is instead redirected and centralized to one warehouse in Sweden. To evaluate and compare the different distribution structures a general model was first created by combining different theoretical models and adapting them to the context of overseas distribution for frozen food. The study then included the three phases of developing the model to fit the case company, applying the model on the case company and then to finally evaluating the model. The resulting model, which was the outcome of the development process, can be seen below. The model illustrates the different included elements. By then applying the model onto the case company, HKScan, it was found that a centralization to a joint warehouse in Denmark would make total cost savings of several percents. In addition, this scenario would increase the total service level. However, the environmental impact would be increased due to long cross-border road transport distances and longer land and sea transports from the warehouse. In addition, it was not possible to fully investigate whether such a distribution would be possible from a regulatory point of view.  A centralization in each country would have minor regulatory issues, it would lead to the smallest environmental impact and have a slight increase in service levels as well as a reduction for the total cost of one percent. The evaluation of the model showed that it produces reasonable results with the regulatory elements being the hardest to evaluate for the different scenarios. Regarding the detail level, the veterinary element could be accounted for by the warehousing element and the sea freight element split into transport from warehouse to domestic port and sea freight from domestic port to the destination port. The box-model, containing twelve elements, can be seen as generalizable for evaluating distribution structures in similar contexts, Overseas export of frozen food. However, the calculation performed within the model do probably only apply to the specific scenarios in the study

Studentbåge : utvecklandet av en webbapplikation för cykelförsäljning

Syftet med följande rapport är att beskriva erfarenheterna med designen och implementationen av en webbapplikation för e-handel. Arbetet genomfördes som en del av ett kandidatarbete, inom civilingenjörsprogrammet Industriell ekonomi vid Linköpings tekniska högskola, av ett team bestående av åtta studenter. Utgångspunkten för kandidatarbetet, som beskrivs i den här rapporten, var att teamet blev kontrakterat av en fiktiv kund (kursledningen) att skapa en handelsplats för cyklar. Då projektet bedrevs i utbildningssyfte hade kunden vissa krav på hur webbapplikationen skulle skapas både vad gäller slutgiltig funktionalitet och arbetsmetodik. Projektarbetet omfattade 18 högskolepoäng och sträckte sig över fem månader. Ur de specifikationer som kunden gav arbetade teamet fram en vision. Då cykeln är en integrerad del av studentlivet så beslutade teamet att skapa en handelsplats som de själva skulle vilja använda. Med utgångspunkt i teammedlemmarnas erfarenhet om cykelhandel i linköpingsområdet skapades konceptet Studentbåge med följande vision: ”Studentbåge; en köp- och säljplats för cyklar på nätet med låga barriärer för både köpare och säljare” Teamets erfarenheter som studenter var att cykelköp i stor utsträckning sker på andrahandsmarknaden men att det bland de befintliga tjänsterna saknades en aktör som erbjöd en tjänst som fokuserade på cyklar i närområdet. Teamets vision för en webbapplikation som uppfyllde det behovet inkluderade en rad funktioner för att fylla det uppfattade behovet. Möjligheten för användare att ladda upp cykelannonser var central då den tilltänkta affärsmodellen byggde på att användarna betalar för att lägga upp en annons. Då publicering av annonser och betalning av dessa kräver att användaruppgifter registreras så var även en inloggningsfunktion ett nödvändigt inslag i webbapplikationens design. För att användare skulle kunna hitta cyklar de var intresserade av så var även en sökfunktion del av visionen

Studentbåge : utvecklandet av en webbapplikation för cykelförsäljning

Syftet med följande rapport är att beskriva erfarenheterna med designen och implementationen av en webbapplikation för e-handel. Arbetet genomfördes som en del av ett kandidatarbete, inom civilingenjörsprogrammet Industriell ekonomi vid Linköpings tekniska högskola, av ett team bestående av åtta studenter. Utgångspunkten för kandidatarbetet, som beskrivs i den här rapporten, var att teamet blev kontrakterat av en fiktiv kund (kursledningen) att skapa en handelsplats för cyklar. Då projektet bedrevs i utbildningssyfte hade kunden vissa krav på hur webbapplikationen skulle skapas både vad gäller slutgiltig funktionalitet och arbetsmetodik. Projektarbetet omfattade 18 högskolepoäng och sträckte sig över fem månader. Ur de specifikationer som kunden gav arbetade teamet fram en vision. Då cykeln är en integrerad del av studentlivet så beslutade teamet att skapa en handelsplats som de själva skulle vilja använda. Med utgångspunkt i teammedlemmarnas erfarenhet om cykelhandel i linköpingsområdet skapades konceptet Studentbåge med följande vision: ”Studentbåge; en köp- och säljplats för cyklar på nätet med låga barriärer för både köpare och säljare” Teamets erfarenheter som studenter var att cykelköp i stor utsträckning sker på andrahandsmarknaden men att det bland de befintliga tjänsterna saknades en aktör som erbjöd en tjänst som fokuserade på cyklar i närområdet. Teamets vision för en webbapplikation som uppfyllde det behovet inkluderade en rad funktioner för att fylla det uppfattade behovet. Möjligheten för användare att ladda upp cykelannonser var central då den tilltänkta affärsmodellen byggde på att användarna betalar för att lägga upp en annons. Då publicering av annonser och betalning av dessa kräver att användaruppgifter registreras så var även en inloggningsfunktion ett nödvändigt inslag i webbapplikationens design. För att användare skulle kunna hitta cyklar de var intresserade av så var även en sökfunktion del av visionen

Sveriges framtida klimat : Underlag till Dricksvattenutredningen

Det senaste resultatet från klimatforskningen har använts för att producera detaljerade analyser av Sveriges framtida klimat. Resultaten bygger på de klimatscenarier som använts av FN:s klimatpanel i dess femte utvärdering (AR5). I denna analys har två scenarier använts; RCP4.5 som innebär stora framtida utsläppsbegränsningar och RCP8.5 som innebär höga utsläpp av växthusgaser i framtiden.Beräkningar av framtidens klimat och vattentillgång bygger på nytt underlag och delvis nya förutsättningar jämfört med tidigare analyser som presenterats av SMHI. De stora dragen i den beräknade förändringen av nederbörd, temperatur, vattentillgång och flöden kvarstår från tidigare utredningar. Användningen av RCP8.5-scenariet, med sin höga framtida koncentration av växthusgaser, förstärker effekterna jämfört med tidigare publicerade analyser.Eftersom resultaten från FN:s klimatpanel (AR5) presenterades så sent som 2013 så har underlaget framtaget av SMHI präglats av ett intensivt utvecklingsarbete. Resultaten har krävt användande av ny metodik och resultaten kommer även fortsättningsvis att utvärderas av SMHI.Analysen har gjorts för ett antal parametrar som är relevanta för dricksvattenförsörjningen. I tabellen nedan visas en översiktlig sammanfattning av resultaten.ParameterFörändringLufttemperatur Ökning i hela landet, främst i norra Sverige, främst vintertid.Medelnederbörd Ökning i hela landet, främst i Norrlands inland, främst vinter och vår.Kraftig korttidsnederbörd Ökning i hela landet, främst för de korta varaktigheterna.Vattentillgång Ökning av årsmedel i hela landet förutom östra Götaland. Ökningen är störst på vintern. Minskning på sommaren, främst i östra Götaland.100-årsflöde och 200-årsflöde Ökning i stora delar av landet. Minskning i Norrlands inland och norra kustland samt nordvästra SvealandLågflöden Mer vanligt i Götaland och Svealand, främst östra GötalandHavsnivåer Stigande havsnivå, nettoökningen störst i södra SverigeTemperaturKlimatberäkningarna visar på en ökning av årsmedeltemperaturen under innevarande sekel, men med stor spridning av resultaten. Störst beräknas ökningen bli i norr, vilket överensstämmer med tidigare resultat från såväl SMHI som IPCC. Skillnaderna mellan de två utsläppsscenarierna är små för perioden 2021-2050 men ökar mot slutet av århundradet. Scenario RCP4.5 innebär i medeltal en ökning på ca 3 grader till 2100 jämfört med perioden 1961-1990. För RCP8.5 är ökningen större, i medeltal ca 6 grader till 2100.NederbördMedelnederbörden beräknas öka i hela landet i framtiden. Störst väntas ökningen bli i Norrlands inland. Skillnaden mellan de två utsläppsscenarierna är små för perioden 2021-2050 men ökar mot slutet av århundradet. En ökning väntas under alla årstider, men främst för vintern och våren.Den extrema korttidsnederbörden beräknas bli mer intensiv i ett framtida klimat. Detta gäller främst skyfall med kort varaktighet.Vattentillgång och flödenI framtiden väntas sett över hela året en ökning av vattentillgången i stora delar av landet, främst i norra Sverige och längs Västkusten. I sydöstra Sverige väntas istället en minskning vilket beror på ökad avdunstning. I större delen av landet väntas vårfloden bli lägre och vinterflödena väntas istället öka. Ändringen i vattentillgång skiljer sig åt mellan olika årstider. Sommartid väntas en minskad vattentillgång i större delen av landet, med den största minskningen i östra Götaland.De extrema flödena väntas i framtiden inträffa mer sällan i Norrlands inland och norra kustland samt nordvästra Svealand. I övriga delar av landet väntas de extrema flödena bli vanligare. De nya beräkningarna visar att en större andel av Sveriges yta kan komma att utsättas för förstärkta extremflöden jämfört med tidigare beräkningar.I framtiden väntas antalet dagar med låga flöden bli fler i Götaland och stora delar av Svealand. Den största förändringen beräknas ske i östra Götaland. Detta är en följd av att avdunstningen ökar till följd av ökad temperatur.HavsnivåDen globala havsnivån väntas stiga i framtiden. En beräknad övre gräns för ökningen är ungefär 1 m till år 2100 enligt IPCC:s senaste utvärdering. Landhöjningen motverkar havsnivåhöjningen, speciellt i norra Sverige.The latest results from climate research have been used to produce detailed analyses of Sweden’s future climate. The results build on the climate scenarios that have been used by the UN’s climate panel in its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Two scenarios have been used in this analysis: RCP4.5, which significantly limits future emissions, and RCP8.5, which is a more conservative “business as usual” scenario.Calculations of the future climate and water availability are based on new material and some new conditions compared to analyses previously presented by SMHI. The calculated changes in precipitation, temperature, water availability and flooding are broadly the same as earlier reports. The use of the RCP8.5 scenario, with its high future concentration of greenhouse gases, strengthens the effects compared to previous analyses.Since the results of the UNs climate panel (AR5) were presented as late as 2013, the material produced by SMHI has involved intensive development. The results have required new methodologies and will continue to be evaluated by SMHI.Analyses have been made for a number of parameters that are relevant to the supply of drinking water. The table below summarises the results.ParameterChangeAirtemperatureIncreasing in the whole country, in particular in northern Sweden, mainly during winter.Average precipitationIncreasing in the whole country, in particular inland Norrland, mainly during winter and spring.Extreme short-term precipitationIncreasing in the whole country, mainly for short-term heavy showers.Water availabilityIncreasing in the whole country except for eastern Götaland. The increase is greatest during the winter. Decreasing during summer, in particular in eastern Götaland.100-year floods and 200-year floodsIncreasing in large areas of the country. Decreasing in inland Norrland and the northern coast as well as north west Svealand.Low river flowsBecoming more common in Götaland and Svealand, particularly in eastern Götaland.Sea levelsRaised sea levels, with the greatest net rise in southern Sweden.TemperatureClimate calculations show an increase in the mean annual temperature during the current century, but with a large spread of the result. The largest increase is calculated for the north, which is in agreement with earlier results from both SMHI and IPCC. The difference between the two emission scenarios is small for the period 2021-2050 but increases towards the end of the century. The RCP4.5 scenario implies an increase of around 3 degrees on average by 2100, compared to the period 1961-1990. The increase is greater for RCP8.5, giving an average of around 6 degrees by 2100. PrecipitationAverage precipitation is calculated to increase for the whole country in the future. The greatest increase is expected for inland Norrland. The difference between the two emission scenarios is small for the period 2021-2050 but increases by the end of the century. An increase is expected during all seasons, but mostly for winter and spring.Extreme short-term precipitation is calculated to become more intensive in a future climate. This applies particularly to short torrential showers. Water availability and flowIn the future, an increase in water availability is expected in large parts of the country, particularly in northern Sweden and along the West Coast. Southern Sweden can instead expect a reduction which is due to increased evaporation. For large parts of the country the spring floods are expected to be lower and the winter floods will increase. The change in water availability differs between the seasons. During summer a decreasing in water availability is expected in large parts of the country, in particular in eastern Götaland.Extreme floods are expected to occur less often in inland Norrland, the northern coastal areas and for north western Svealand. In the rest of the country, extreme floods are expected to be more common. New calculations show that a larger part of Sweden’s area could be susceptible to stronger extreme floods compared to earlier calculations.In the future, more days with low river flows are expected in Götaland and large parts of Svealand. The greatest change is expected in eastern Götaland. This is a result of increased evaporation due to the rise in temperature.Sea levelThe global sea level is expected to rise in the future. A calculated upper limit for the increase has been put at about 1 m by the year 2100 according to the latest evaluation from IPCC. The land rise counteracts the rise in sea level, in particular for northern Sweden.PrecipitationAverage precipitation is calculated to increase for the whole country in the future. The greatest increase is expected for inland Norrland. The difference between the two emission scenarios is small for the period 2021-2050 but increases by the end of the century. An increase is expected during all seasons, but mostly for winter and spring.Extreme short-term precipitation is calculated to become more intensive in a future climate. This applies particularly to short torrential showers. Water availability and flowIn the future, an increase in water availability is expected in large parts of the country, particularly in northern Sweden and along the West Coast. Southern Sweden can instead expect a reduction which is due to increased evaporation. For large parts of the country the spring floods are expected to be lower and the winter floods will increase. The change in water availability differs between the seasons. During summer a decreasing in water availability is expected in large parts of the country, in particular in eastern Götaland.Extreme floods are expected to occur less often in inland Norrland, the northern coastal areas and for north western Svealand. In the rest of the country, extreme floods are expected to be more common. New calculations show that a larger part of Sweden’s area could be susceptible to stronger extreme floods compared to earlier calculations.In the future, more days with low river flows are expected in Götaland and large parts of Svealand. The greatest change is expected in eastern Götaland. This is a result of increased evaporation due to the rise in temperature.Sea level The global sea level is expected to rise in the future. A calculated upper limit for the increase has been put at about 1 m by the year 2100 according to the latest evaluation from IPCC. The land rise counteracts the rise in sea level, in particular for northern Sweden

Sveriges framtida klimat : Underlag till Dricksvattenutredningen

Det senaste resultatet från klimatforskningen har använts för att producera detaljerade analyser av Sveriges framtida klimat. Resultaten bygger på de klimatscenarier som använts av FN:s klimatpanel i dess femte utvärdering (AR5). I denna analys har två scenarier använts; RCP4.5 som innebär stora framtida utsläppsbegränsningar och RCP8.5 som innebär höga utsläpp av växthusgaser i framtiden.Beräkningar av framtidens klimat och vattentillgång bygger på nytt underlag och delvis nya förutsättningar jämfört med tidigare analyser som presenterats av SMHI. De stora dragen i den beräknade förändringen av nederbörd, temperatur, vattentillgång och flöden kvarstår från tidigare utredningar. Användningen av RCP8.5-scenariet, med sin höga framtida koncentration av växthusgaser, förstärker effekterna jämfört med tidigare publicerade analyser.Eftersom resultaten från FN:s klimatpanel (AR5) presenterades så sent som 2013 så har underlaget framtaget av SMHI präglats av ett intensivt utvecklingsarbete. Resultaten har krävt användande av ny metodik och resultaten kommer även fortsättningsvis att utvärderas av SMHI.Analysen har gjorts för ett antal parametrar som är relevanta för dricksvattenförsörjningen. I tabellen nedan visas en översiktlig sammanfattning av resultaten.ParameterFörändringLufttemperatur Ökning i hela landet, främst i norra Sverige, främst vintertid.Medelnederbörd Ökning i hela landet, främst i Norrlands inland, främst vinter och vår.Kraftig korttidsnederbörd Ökning i hela landet, främst för de korta varaktigheterna.Vattentillgång Ökning av årsmedel i hela landet förutom östra Götaland. Ökningen är störst på vintern. Minskning på sommaren, främst i östra Götaland.100-årsflöde och 200-årsflöde Ökning i stora delar av landet. Minskning i Norrlands inland och norra kustland samt nordvästra SvealandLågflöden Mer vanligt i Götaland och Svealand, främst östra GötalandHavsnivåer Stigande havsnivå, nettoökningen störst i södra SverigeTemperaturKlimatberäkningarna visar på en ökning av årsmedeltemperaturen under innevarande sekel, men med stor spridning av resultaten. Störst beräknas ökningen bli i norr, vilket överensstämmer med tidigare resultat från såväl SMHI som IPCC. Skillnaderna mellan de två utsläppsscenarierna är små för perioden 2021-2050 men ökar mot slutet av århundradet. Scenario RCP4.5 innebär i medeltal en ökning på ca 3 grader till 2100 jämfört med perioden 1961-1990. För RCP8.5 är ökningen större, i medeltal ca 6 grader till 2100.NederbördMedelnederbörden beräknas öka i hela landet i framtiden. Störst väntas ökningen bli i Norrlands inland. Skillnaden mellan de två utsläppsscenarierna är små för perioden 2021-2050 men ökar mot slutet av århundradet. En ökning väntas under alla årstider, men främst för vintern och våren.Den extrema korttidsnederbörden beräknas bli mer intensiv i ett framtida klimat. Detta gäller främst skyfall med kort varaktighet.Vattentillgång och flödenI framtiden väntas sett över hela året en ökning av vattentillgången i stora delar av landet, främst i norra Sverige och längs Västkusten. I sydöstra Sverige väntas istället en minskning vilket beror på ökad avdunstning. I större delen av landet väntas vårfloden bli lägre och vinterflödena väntas istället öka. Ändringen i vattentillgång skiljer sig åt mellan olika årstider. Sommartid väntas en minskad vattentillgång i större delen av landet, med den största minskningen i östra Götaland.De extrema flödena väntas i framtiden inträffa mer sällan i Norrlands inland och norra kustland samt nordvästra Svealand. I övriga delar av landet väntas de extrema flödena bli vanligare. De nya beräkningarna visar att en större andel av Sveriges yta kan komma att utsättas för förstärkta extremflöden jämfört med tidigare beräkningar.I framtiden väntas antalet dagar med låga flöden bli fler i Götaland och stora delar av Svealand. Den största förändringen beräknas ske i östra Götaland. Detta är en följd av att avdunstningen ökar till följd av ökad temperatur.HavsnivåDen globala havsnivån väntas stiga i framtiden. En beräknad övre gräns för ökningen är ungefär 1 m till år 2100 enligt IPCC:s senaste utvärdering. Landhöjningen motverkar havsnivåhöjningen, speciellt i norra Sverige.The latest results from climate research have been used to produce detailed analyses of Sweden’s future climate. The results build on the climate scenarios that have been used by the UN’s climate panel in its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Two scenarios have been used in this analysis: RCP4.5, which significantly limits future emissions, and RCP8.5, which is a more conservative “business as usual” scenario.Calculations of the future climate and water availability are based on new material and some new conditions compared to analyses previously presented by SMHI. The calculated changes in precipitation, temperature, water availability and flooding are broadly the same as earlier reports. The use of the RCP8.5 scenario, with its high future concentration of greenhouse gases, strengthens the effects compared to previous analyses.Since the results of the UNs climate panel (AR5) were presented as late as 2013, the material produced by SMHI has involved intensive development. The results have required new methodologies and will continue to be evaluated by SMHI.Analyses have been made for a number of parameters that are relevant to the supply of drinking water. The table below summarises the results.ParameterChangeAirtemperatureIncreasing in the whole country, in particular in northern Sweden, mainly during winter.Average precipitationIncreasing in the whole country, in particular inland Norrland, mainly during winter and spring.Extreme short-term precipitationIncreasing in the whole country, mainly for short-term heavy showers.Water availabilityIncreasing in the whole country except for eastern Götaland. The increase is greatest during the winter. Decreasing during summer, in particular in eastern Götaland.100-year floods and 200-year floodsIncreasing in large areas of the country. Decreasing in inland Norrland and the northern coast as well as north west Svealand.Low river flowsBecoming more common in Götaland and Svealand, particularly in eastern Götaland.Sea levelsRaised sea levels, with the greatest net rise in southern Sweden.TemperatureClimate calculations show an increase in the mean annual temperature during the current century, but with a large spread of the result. The largest increase is calculated for the north, which is in agreement with earlier results from both SMHI and IPCC. The difference between the two emission scenarios is small for the period 2021-2050 but increases towards the end of the century. The RCP4.5 scenario implies an increase of around 3 degrees on average by 2100, compared to the period 1961-1990. The increase is greater for RCP8.5, giving an average of around 6 degrees by 2100. PrecipitationAverage precipitation is calculated to increase for the whole country in the future. The greatest increase is expected for inland Norrland. The difference between the two emission scenarios is small for the period 2021-2050 but increases by the end of the century. An increase is expected during all seasons, but mostly for winter and spring.Extreme short-term precipitation is calculated to become more intensive in a future climate. This applies particularly to short torrential showers. Water availability and flowIn the future, an increase in water availability is expected in large parts of the country, particularly in northern Sweden and along the West Coast. Southern Sweden can instead expect a reduction which is due to increased evaporation. For large parts of the country the spring floods are expected to be lower and the winter floods will increase. The change in water availability differs between the seasons. During summer a decreasing in water availability is expected in large parts of the country, in particular in eastern Götaland.Extreme floods are expected to occur less often in inland Norrland, the northern coastal areas and for north western Svealand. In the rest of the country, extreme floods are expected to be more common. New calculations show that a larger part of Sweden’s area could be susceptible to stronger extreme floods compared to earlier calculations.In the future, more days with low river flows are expected in Götaland and large parts of Svealand. The greatest change is expected in eastern Götaland. This is a result of increased evaporation due to the rise in temperature.Sea levelThe global sea level is expected to rise in the future. A calculated upper limit for the increase has been put at about 1 m by the year 2100 according to the latest evaluation from IPCC. The land rise counteracts the rise in sea level, in particular for northern Sweden.PrecipitationAverage precipitation is calculated to increase for the whole country in the future. The greatest increase is expected for inland Norrland. The difference between the two emission scenarios is small for the period 2021-2050 but increases by the end of the century. An increase is expected during all seasons, but mostly for winter and spring.Extreme short-term precipitation is calculated to become more intensive in a future climate. This applies particularly to short torrential showers. Water availability and flowIn the future, an increase in water availability is expected in large parts of the country, particularly in northern Sweden and along the West Coast. Southern Sweden can instead expect a reduction which is due to increased evaporation. For large parts of the country the spring floods are expected to be lower and the winter floods will increase. The change in water availability differs between the seasons. During summer a decreasing in water availability is expected in large parts of the country, in particular in eastern Götaland.Extreme floods are expected to occur less often in inland Norrland, the northern coastal areas and for north western Svealand. In the rest of the country, extreme floods are expected to be more common. New calculations show that a larger part of Sweden’s area could be susceptible to stronger extreme floods compared to earlier calculations.In the future, more days with low river flows are expected in Götaland and large parts of Svealand. The greatest change is expected in eastern Götaland. This is a result of increased evaporation due to the rise in temperature.Sea level The global sea level is expected to rise in the future. A calculated upper limit for the increase has been put at about 1 m by the year 2100 according to the latest evaluation from IPCC. The land rise counteracts the rise in sea level, in particular for northern Sweden