Análise da capacidade de predição de risco e validade da Morse Fall Scale versão brasileira

Objetivo: Analisar o poder de predição de risco da Morse Fall Scale na versão brasileira (MFS-B).Método: Estudo metodológico, longitudinal, com 1487 pacientes adultos de dois hospitais universitários do Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. A MFS-B foi utilizada para avaliar o risco para quedas. A análise estatística englobou métodos multivariados (Análise Fatorial e Discriminante, curva ROC para determinar o ponto de corte ótimo). Pesquisa aprovada pelos Comitês de Ética das instituições.Resultados: A melhor estimativa para predizer a queda foi no ponto de corte 44,78 da pontuação média da MFS-B, com sensibilidade de 95,2% e especificidade de 64%. A ocorrência de queda e a classificação de risco elevado foram significativas (p<0,00001).Conclusões: Os resultados apontam para uma boa capacidade de predição de queda pela MFS-B, no ponto de corte para a classificação do risco elevado, conforme classificação original.Palavras-chave: Estudos de validação. Segurança do paciente. Acidentes por quedas. Enfermagem

Effects of Fragmentation and Sea-Level Changes upon Frog Communities of Land-Bridge Islands off the Southeastern Coast of Brazil

<div><p></p><p>We investigate the composition of anuran communities of land-bridge islands off the southeastern coast of Brazil. These islands provide natural long-term experiments on the effects of fragmentation in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (BAF). We hypothesize that Pleistocene sea-level changes, in combination with other abiotic variables such as area and habitat diversity, has affected anuran species richness and community composition on these islands. Data from the literature and collections databases were used to produce species lists for eight land-bridge islands and for the mainland adjacent to the islands. We assess the effects of area, number of breeding habitats and distance to the mainland upon anuran species richness on land-bridge islands. Additionally we use nestedness analysis to quantify the extent to which the species on smaller and less habitat-diverse islands correspond to subsets of those on larger and more diverse ones. We found that area has both direct and indirect effects on anuran species richness on land-bridge islands, irrespective of distance to the mainland. However, on islands with comparable sizes, differences in species richness can be attributed to the number and quality of breeding habitats. Anuran communities on these islands display a nested pattern, possibly caused by selective extinction related to habitat loss. Common lowland pond-breeders were conspicuous by their absence. In the BAF, the conservation of fragments with a high diversity of breeding habitats could compensate for the generally negative effect of small area upon species richness. We suggest that sea-level changes have an important role in shaping composition of anuran species on coastal communities.</p></div

Description of the eight islands included in the present study.

<p>Island size: large (L), medium (M), small (S) and very small (VS). Sampling methods (SM): visual encounter (1), pit-fall traps (2) and plots (3). Maximum elevation (Elev), minimum distance to mainland (Dist), mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean minimum temperature (MinT)/absolute minimum, mean maximum temperature (MaxT)/absolute maximum. Data not available (NA).</p

Path and effect coefficients of species number as a function of area and number of suitable breeding habitats used by anurans (NBH) on land-bridge islands off the southeastern coast of Brazil.

<p>Path and effect coefficients of species number as a function of area and number of suitable breeding habitats used by anurans (NBH) on land-bridge islands off the southeastern coast of Brazil.</p

Number of anuran species per breeding habitat (BH) in each macro-habitat (MH) on eight islands off the southeastern coast of Brazil.

<p>Ilha de São Sebastião (SAO), Ilha Grande (GRD), Ilha da Marambaia (MAR), Ilha Anchieta (ANC), Ilha de Itacuruçá (ITA), Ilha da Gipóia (GIP), Ilha de Jaguanum (JAG), Ilha de Itanhangá (ITN).</p

Macro-habitats and breeding habitats recorded on each island.

<p>Ilha de São Sebastião (SAO), Ilha Grande (GRD), Ilha da Marambaia (MAR), Ilha Anchieta (ANC), Ilha de Itacuruçá (ITA), Ilha da Gipóia (GIP), Ilha de Jaguanum (JAG), Ilha de Itanhangá (ITN). Macro-habitat formed after the isolation process and therefore not included in the analyses (*).</p

Path model of species number as a function of area and number of breeding habitats.

<p>Arrows indicate the direct effect of one variable on another. Number of suitable breeding habitats (NBH). Path coefficients represent: (a1) direct effect of area on NBH; (b1) direct effect of NBH on species number; and (b2) direct effect of area on species number.</p

Percentage of frog species dependent and independent of water bodies for reproduction.

<p>Mainland (MLD), Ilha de São Sebastião (SAO), Ilha Grande (GRD), Ilha da Marambaia (MAR), Ilha Anchieta (ANC), Ilha de Itacuruçá (ITA), Ilha da Gipóia (GIP), Ilha de Jaguanum (JAG), Ilha de Itanhangá (ITN). Numbers on the bars indicate the actual number of species, and numbers in parentheses represent the area of the islands in ha.</p