Spatiotemporal modeling of schistosomiasis in Ghana: linking remote sensing data to infectious disease

More than 90% of the worldwide schistosomiasis burden falls on sub-Saharan Africa. Control efforts are often based on infrequent, small-scale health surveys, which are expensive and logistically difficult to conduct. The use of satellite imagery to predictively model infectious disease transmission has great potential for public health applications. The transmission of schistosomiasis, a disease acquired from contact with contaminated surface water, requires specific environmental conditions to sustain freshwater snails. If a connection between schistosomiasis and remotely sensed environmental variables can be established, then cost effective and current disease risk predictions can be made available. Schistosomiasis transmission has unknown seasonality, and the disease is difficult to study due to a long lag between infection and clinical symptoms. To overcome these challenges, we employed a comprehensive 15-year time-series built from remote sensing feeds, which is the longest environmental dataset to be used in the application of remote sensing to schistosomiasis. The following environmental variables will be used in the model: accumulated precipitation, land surface temperature, vegetative growth indices, and climate zones created from a novel climate regionalization technique. This technique, improves upon the conventional Köppen-Geiger method, which has been the primary climate classification system in use the past 100 years. These predictor variables will be regressed against 8 years of national health data in Ghana, the largest health dataset of its kind to be used in this context, and acquired from freely available satellite imagery data. A benefit of remote sensing processing is that it only requires training and time in terms of resources. The results of a fixed effects model can be used to develop a decision support framework to design treatment schemes and direct scarce resources to areas with the highest risk of infection. This framework can be applied to diseases sensitive to climate or to locations where remote sensing would be better suited than health surveys.Published versio

The use of remotely sensed environmental parameters for spatial and temporal schistosomiasis prediction across climate zones in Ghana

Schistosomiasis control in sub-Saharan Africa is enacted primarily through preventive chemotherapy. Predictive models can play an important role in filling knowledge gaps in the distribution of the disease and help guide the allocation of limited resources. Previous modeling approaches have used localized cross-sectional survey data and environmental data typically collected at a discrete point in time. In this analysis, 8 years (2008-2015) of monthly schistosomiasis cases reported into Ghana's national surveillance system were used to assess temporal and spatial relationships between disease rates and three remotely sensed environmental variables: land surface temperature (LST), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and accumulated precipitation (AP). Furthermore, the analysis was stratified by three major and nine minor climate zones, defined using a new climate classification method. Results showed a downward trend in reported disease rates (~ 1% per month) for all climate zones. Seasonality was present in the north with two peaks (March and September), and in the middle of the country with a single peak (July). Lowest disease rates were observed in December/January across climate zones. Seasonal patterns in the environmental variables and their associations with reported schistosomiasis infection rates varied across climate zones. Precipitation consistently demonstrated a positive association with disease outcome, with a 1-cm increase in rainfall contributing a 0.3-1.6% increase in monthly reported schistosomiasis infection rates. Generally, surveillance of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) in low-income countries continues to suffer from data quality issues. However, with systematic improvements, our approach demonstrates a way for health departments to use routine surveillance data in combination with publicly available remote sensing data to analyze disease patterns with wide geographic coverage and varying levels of spatial and temporal aggregation.Accepted manuscrip

Does increasing treatment frequency address sub-optimal responses to ivermectin for the control and elimination of river blindness?

Background Several African countries have adopted a biannual ivermectin distribution strategy in some foci to control and eliminate onchocerciasis. In 2010, the Ghana Health Service started biannual distribution to combat transmission hotspots and sub-optimal responses to treatment. We assessed the epidemiological impact of the first 3 years of this strategy and quantified responses to ivermectin over two consecutive rounds of treatment in 10 sentinel communities. Methods We evaluated Onchocerca volvulus microfilarial intensity and prevalence in those aged +/-20 years before the first, second and fifth (or sixth) biannual treatment rounds using skin snip data from 956 participants. We used longitudinal regression modelling to estimate rates of microfilarial repopulation of the skin in a cohort of 217 participants who were followed-up over the first two rounds of biannual treatment. Results Biannual treatment has had a positive impact, with substantial reductions in infection intensity after 4 or 5 rounds in most communities. We identified three communities—all having been previously recognised as responding sub-optimally to ivermectin—with statistically significantly high microfilarial repopulation rates. We did not find any clear association between microfilarial repopulation rate and the number of years of prior intervention, coverage, or the community level of infection. Conclusions The strategy of biannual ivermectin treatment in Ghana has reduced O. volvulus microfilarial intensity and prevalence, but sub-optimal responses to treatment remain evident in a number of previously and consistently implicated communities. Whether increasing the frequency of treatment will be sufficient to meet the World Health Organization’s 2020 elimination goals remains uncertain

Routine Surveillance Data as a Resource for Planning Integration of NTD Case Management

Background: There is a high burden of morbidity due to neglected tropical diseases. To help address this, the World Health Organization recommends integration of case management (CM). Here, we present a practical framework designed to identify areas that could benefit from an integrated CM strategy in Ghana. We also investigated the accessibility of primary health care (PHC) to CM cases, and the impact of this on morbidity at diagnosis. Methods: Routinely detected cases of Buruli ulcer (BU) and leprosy, and suspected lymphedema identified through morbidity surveys during mass drug administration campaigns in Ghana in 2014 were remotely georeferenced. We estimated distances from cases’ home communities to the nearest primary healthcare facility (PHC), and compared rates of reported disease, completeness of clinical information, and risk of more severe morbidity, relative to PHC accessibility. Results: We georeferenced communities of 295/350 reported leprosy cases, 240/333 BU cases, and 1,557/2383 instances of lymphedema. Overlap of these diseases was predominantly around Accra and in the Upper East Region. Rates of reported disease appeared higher in populations with higher accessibility to PHC, and leprosy cases living further from PHC had a higher risk of disability at diagnosis. Conclusions: This investigation demonstrates the feasibility and value of using routinely collected data to map CM-NTDs at low cost. The maps presented are intended to provide a resource for planning the implementation of integrated CM for NTDs in Ghana. This approach could be easily implemented by national health services in other endemic countries in the future

Elimination of trachoma as a public health problem in Ghana: Providing evidence through a pre-validation survey.

BACKGROUND: In order to achieve elimination of trachoma, a country needs to demonstrate that the elimination prevalence thresholds have been achieved and then sustained for at least a two-year period. Ghana achieved the thresholds in 2008, and since 2011 has been implementing its trachoma surveillance strategy, which includes community and school screening for signs of follicular trachoma and trichiasis, in trachoma-endemic districts. In 2015-2016, the country conducted a district level population-based survey to validate elimination of trachoma as a public health problem. METHODS: As per WHO recommendations, a cross-sectional survey, employing a two-stage cluster random sampling methodology, was used across 18 previously trachoma endemic districts (evaluation units (EUs) in the Upper West and Northern Regions of Ghana. In each EU 24 villages were selected based on probability proportional to estimated size. A minimum of 40 households were targeted per village and all eligible residents were examined for clinical signs of trachoma, using the WHO simplified grading system. The number of trichiasis cases unknown to the health system was determined. Household environmental risk factors for trachoma were also assessed. RESULTS: Data from 45,660 individuals were examined from 11,099 households across 18 EUs, with 27,398 (60.0%) children aged 1-9 years and 16,610 (36.4%) individuals 15 years and above All EUs had shown to have maintained the WHO elimination threshold for Trachomatous inflammation-Follicular (TF) (<5.0% prevalence) in children aged 1-9 years old. The EU TF prevalence in children aged 1-9 years old ranged from between 0.09% to 1.20%. Only one EU (Yendi 0.36%; 95% CI: 0.0-1.01) failed to meet the WHO TT elimination threshold (< 0.2% prevalence in adults aged 15 and above). The EU prevalence of trichiasis (TT) unknown to the health system in adults aged ≥15 years, ranged from 0.00% to 0.36%. In this EU, the estimated TT backlog is 417 All TT patients identified in the study, as well as through on-going surveillance efforts will require further management. A total of 75.9% (95% CI 72.1-79.3, EU range 29.1-92.6) of households defecated in the open but many households had access to an improved water source 75.9% (95%CI: 71.5-79.8, EU range 47.4-90.1%), with 45.5% (95% CI 41.5-49.7%, EU range 28.4-61.8%) making a round trip of water collection < 30 minutes. CONCLUSION: The findings from this survey indicate elimination thresholds have been maintained in Ghana in 17 of the 18 surveyed EUs. Only one EU, Yendi, did not achieve the TT elimination threshold. A scheduled house-by-house TT case search in this EU coupled with surgery to clear the backlog of cases is necessary in order for Ghana to request validation of elimination of trachoma as a public health problem

Serological and PCR-based markers of ocular Chlamydia trachomatis transmission in northern Ghana after elimination of trachoma as a public health problem.

BACKGROUND: Validation of elimination of trachoma as a public health problem is based on clinical indicators, using the WHO simplified grading system. Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) infection and anti-Ct antibody responses (anti-Pgp3) have both been evaluated as alternative indicators in settings with varying levels of trachoma. There is a need to evaluate the feasibility of using tests for Ct infection and anti-Pgp3 antibodies at scale in a trachoma-endemic country and to establish the added value of the data generated for understanding transmission dynamics in the peri-elimination setting. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Dried blood spots for serological testing and ocular swabs for Ct infection testing (taken from children aged 1-9 years) were integrated into the pre-validation trachoma surveys conducted in the Northern and Upper West regions of Ghana in 2015 and 2016. Ct infection was detected using the GeneXpert PCR platform and the presence of anti-Pgp3 antibodies was detected using both the ELISA assay and multiplex bead array (MBA). The overall mean cluster-summarised TF prevalence (the clinical indicator) was 0.8% (95% CI: 0.6-1.0) and Ct infection prevalence was 0.04% (95%CI: 0.00-0.12). Anti-Pgp3 seroprevalence using the ELISA was 5.5% (95% CI: 4.8-6.3) compared to 4.3% (95%CI: 3.7-4.9) using the MBA. There was strong evidence from both assays that seropositivity increased with age (p<0.001), although the seroconversion rate was estimated to be very low (between 1.2 to 1.3 yearly events per 100 children). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Infection and serological data provide useful information to aid in understanding Ct transmission dynamics. Elimination of trachoma as a public health problem does not equate to the absence of ocular Ct infection nor cessation in acquisition of anti-Ct antibodies

Mapping Helminth Co-Infection and Co-Intensity: Geostatistical Prediction in Ghana

Urinary schistosomiasis and hookworm infections cause considerable morbidity in school age children in West Africa. Severe morbidity is predominantly observed in individuals infected with both parasite types and, in particular, with heavy infections. We investigated for the first time the distribution of S. haematobium and hookworm co-infections and distribution of co-intensity of these parasites in Ghana. Bayesian geostatistical models were developed to generate a national co-infection map and national intensity maps for each parasite, using data on S. haematobium and hookworm prevalence and egg concentration (expressed as eggs per 10 mL of urine for S. haematobium and expressed as eggs per gram of faeces for hookworm), collected during a pre-intervention baseline survey in Ghana, 2008. In contrast with previous findings from the East Africa region, we found that both S. haematobium and hookworm infections are highly focal, resulting in small, localized clusters of co-infection and areas of high co-intensity. Overlaying on a single map the co-infection and the intensity of multiple parasite infections allows identification of areas where parasite environmental contamination and morbidity are at its highest, while providing an evidence base for the assessment of the progress of successive rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) in integrated parasitic disease control programs

Onchocerciasis transmission in Ghana: Persistence under different control strategies and the role of the simuliid vectors

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) aims at eliminating onchocerciasis by 2020 in selected African countries. Current control focuses on community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI). In Ghana, persistent transmission has been reported despite long-term control. We present spatial and temporal patterns of onchocerciasis transmission in relation to ivermectin treatment history. Methodology/Principal Findings: Host-seeking and ovipositing blackflies were collected from seven villages in four regions of Ghana with 3–24 years of CDTI at the time of sampling. A total of 16,443 flies was analysed for infection; 5,812 (35.3%) were dissected for parity (26.9% parous). Heads and thoraces of 12,196 flies were dissected for Onchocerca spp. and DNA from 11,122 abdomens was amplified using Onchocerca primers. A total of 463 larvae (0.03 larvae/fly) from 97 (0.6%) infected and 62 (0.4%) infective flies was recorded; 258 abdomens (2.3%) were positive for Onchocerca DNA. Infections (all were O. volvulus) were more likely to be detected in ovipositing flies. Transmission occurred, mostly in the wet season, at Gyankobaa and Bosomase, with transmission potentials of, respectively, 86 and 422 L3/person/month after 3 and 6 years of CDTI. The numbers of L3/1,000 parous flies at these villages were over 100times the WHO threshold of one L3/1,000 for transmission control. Vector species influenced transmission parameters. At Asubende, the number of L3/1,000 ovipositing flies (1.4, 95% CI = 0–4) also just exceeded the threshold despite extensive vector control and 24 years of ivermectin distribution, but there were no infective larvae in host-seeking flies. Conclusions/Significance: Despite repeated ivermectin treatment, evidence of O. volvulus transmission was documented in all seven villages and above the WHO threshold in two. Vector species influences transmission through biting and parous rates and vector competence, and should be included in transmission models. Oviposition traps could augment vector collector methods for monitoring and surveillance

Tailoring Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) Targets for Soil-Transmitted Helminthiasis and Schistosomiasis Control.

The World Health Organization's (WHO) 2015-2020 Global Strategy on water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) and neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) encourages integration, whilst maintaining existing structured NTD investments, and acceleration towards Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets. Accordingly, SDG-associated and WASH-NTD indicators have been developed, commencing important intersectoral dialogue, alongside opportunities for future disease-specific refinements. The rationale for soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH)- and schistosomiasis-specific WASH considerations, and a traffic-light figure, are presented here to indicate where current international definitions may, or may not, suffice. Certain unique aspects in control dynamics and parasitic lifecycles, however, necessitate additional implementation research with more appropriate measurement indicators developed to record programmatic interventions and to define strategic priorities more effectively