True versus Apparent Malaria Infection Prevalence: The Contribution of a Bayesian Approach

AIMS: To present a new approach for estimating the "true prevalence" of malaria and apply it to datasets from Peru, Vietnam, and Cambodia. METHODS: Bayesian models were developed for estimating both the malaria prevalence using different diagnostic tests (microscopy, PCR & ELISA), without the need of a gold standard, and the tests' characteristics. Several sources of information, i.e. data, expert opinions and other sources of knowledge can be integrated into the model. This approach resulting in an optimal and harmonized estimate of malaria infection prevalence, with no conflict between the different sources of information, was tested on data from Peru, Vietnam and Cambodia. RESULTS: Malaria sero-prevalence was relatively low in all sites, with ELISA showing the highest estimates. The sensitivity of microscopy and ELISA were statistically lower in Vietnam than in the other sites. Similarly, the specificities of microscopy, ELISA and PCR were significantly lower in Vietnam than in the other sites. In Vietnam and Peru, microscopy was closer to the "true" estimate than the other 2 tests while as expected ELISA, with its lower specificity, usually overestimated the prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: Bayesian methods are useful for analyzing prevalence results when no gold standard diagnostic test is available. Though some results are expected, e.g. PCR more sensitive than microscopy, a standardized and context-independent quantification of the diagnostic tests' characteristics (sensitivity and specificity) and the underlying malaria prevalence may be useful for comparing different sites. Indeed, the use of a single diagnostic technique could strongly bias the prevalence estimation. This limitation can be circumvented by using a Bayesian framework taking into account the imperfect characteristics of the currently available diagnostic tests. As discussed in the paper, this approach may further support global malaria burden estimation initiatives

Micromechanical Properties of Injection-Molded Starch–Wood Particle Composites

The micromechanical properties of injection molded starch–wood particle composites were investigated as a function of particle content and humidity conditions. The composite materials were characterized by scanning electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction methods. The microhardness of the composites was shown to increase notably with the concentration of the wood particles. In addition,creep behavior under the indenter and temperature dependence were evaluated in terms of the independent contribution of the starch matrix and the wood microparticles to the hardness value. The influence of drying time on the density and weight uptake of the injection-molded composites was highlighted. The results revealed the role of the mechanism of water evaporation, showing that the dependence of water uptake and temperature was greater for the starch–wood composites than for the pure starch sample. Experiments performed during the drying process at 70°C indicated that the wood in the starch composites did not prevent water loss from the samples.Peer reviewe

Movement Behaviour of Traditionally Managed Cattle in the Eastern Province of Zambia Captured Using Two-Dimensional Motion Sensors

Two-dimensional motion sensors use electronic accelerometers to record the lying, standing and walking activity of cattle. Movement behaviour data collected automatically using these sensors over prolonged periods of time could be of use to stakeholders making management and disease control decisions in rural sub-Saharan Africa leading to potential improvements in animal health and production. Motion sensors were used in this study with the aim of monitoring and quantifying the movement behaviour of traditionally managed Angoni cattle in Petauke District in the Eastern Province of Zambia. This study was designed to assess whether motion sensors were suitable for use on traditionally managed cattle in two veterinary camps in Petauke District in the Eastern Province of Zambia. In each veterinary camp, twenty cattle were selected for study. Each animal had a motion sensor placed on its hind leg to continuously measure and record its movement behaviour over a two week period. Analysing the sensor data using principal components analysis (PCA) revealed that the majority of variability in behaviour among studied cattle could be attributed to their behaviour at night and in the morning. The behaviour at night was markedly different between veterinary camps; while differences in the morning appeared to reflect varying behaviour across all animals. The study results validate the use of such motion sensors in the chosen setting and highlight the importance of appropriate data summarisation techniques to adequately describe and compare animal movement behaviours if association to other factors, such as location, breed or health status are to be assessed

Age prevalence of trypanosomal infections in female Glossina morsitans morsitans (Diptera: Glossinidae) on the plateau area of eastern Zambia

Trypanosomal infections in female Glossina morsitans morsitans were investigated in an area in the Eastern Province of Zambia between 1992 and 1994. A total of 4416 flies were captured, aged using the ovarian ageing method and screened for trypanosomal infections in both the mouthparts, salivary glands and the midgut. Congolense-type infections were identified in 4.8% of the flies. Vivax-type and immature infections were identified in 1.8% and 6.8% of the flies, respectively. The prevalence of congolense-type, vivax-type and immature infections increased with age. For vivax-type infections the age-prevalence relationship could be described by a model assuming a constant per capita rate of infection. For congolense-type and midgut infections, a polynomial term was added to the model significantly improving the fit. The per capita at which flies become infected was significantly higher for immature compared to mature infections. Observations strongly suggest that tsetse acquire new midgut infections at any age and that maturation of these infections is not limited to those obtained during the first blood meal