Statistical modelling of international migration flows

The paper deals with uncertainty in estimating international migration flows for an interlinked system of countries. The related problems are discussed on the example of a dedicated model 'IMEM' (Integrated Model of European Migration). The IMEM is a hierarchical Bayesian model, which allows for combining data from different countries with meta-data on definitions and collection methods, as well as with relevant expert information. The model is applied to 31 EU and EFTA countries for the period 2002–2008. The expert opinion comes from a two-round Delphi survey carried out amongst 11 European experts on issues related to migration statistics. The adopted Bayesian approach allows for a coherent quantification of uncertainty stemming from different sources (data discrepancies, model parameters, and expert judgement). The outcomes produced by the model – whole posterior distributions of estimated flows – can be then used for assessing the true magnitude of flows at the European level, taking into account relative costs of overestimating or underestimating of migration flows. In this context, problems related to application of the decision statistical analysis to multidimensional problems are briefly discusse

Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography

This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration – one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly

Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography

This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration – one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly

Ocena prognozy ludności GUS 2003 z perspektywy aglomeracji warszawskiej

Demographic forecasts constitute an important information input for economic and social policies, as well as for a spatial organisation, which areas are crucial from the point of view of the Warsaw agglomeration. The paper aims at evaluating the recent population forecast of the Central Statistical Office for the period 2003-2030 in the context of the expected population changes of the capital city. The analysis concentrates on three elements of a forecast: the demographic data, the model of population dynamics, and assumptions on particular components of population change. Regarding data, it is argued that the current system of population statistics in Poland does not provide credible information on population stocks and structures, which causes a bias in the estimation of intensity of demographic events. As the main problem comes from the incompatibility of definitions, appropriate changes in legislation seem to be necessary. With respect to the model, the forecast should be prepared using a multi-regional model rather than the cohort-component method. The assumptions underestimate the role of migration (especially internal immigration to and international emigration from Warsaw) in the demographic development of the city. Hence, authors are of the opinion that the forecasted decline of the Warsaw population from the (underestimated) 1,688 thousand in 2002 to 1,532 thousand in 2030 is not realistic. It is argued that a population forecast for Warsaw should consider the specificity of the capital city and the whole agglomeration, which is an important migration destination for labour force from other regions of Poland. According to international standards, such a forecast should be made for the resident population. The 2003-based population forecast of the Central Statistical Office does not meet these criteria and thus can be hardly used for socio-economic policy purposes, spatial organisation, and development plans for the city and the Warsaw agglomeration

Proces emancypacji politycznej Inuitów w Grenlandii w okresie kolonialnym

The aim of the article is to present the process of political emancipation of the Inuit in Greenland, in the period of Danish colonialism. The author looks at the issue of colonialism from two standpoints. On the one hand, Danish colonialism is the threat to Inuit traditional way of life, but on the other hand, it is a chance to better involve the Inuit in decision-making processes in Greenland. The research problem is included in the questions about real motivation of Danish colonial authorities for initiating the process of political emancipation of indigenous peoples in Greenland. The main thesis of the article is that although the Danish colonialism caused repression to Greenland’s indigenous peoples, it also contributed to gradual social-political development, defined as political emancipation. The individual parts of the article discuss issues such as the genesis of Danish colonial development in the North-Atlantic area, the attitude of Danish colonial authorities to the Inuit, and the functioning of Greenland as a colony. The main point of considerations is an analysis of evolving social-political role of the Inuit at this time and involvement of this group in local decision-making processes. What is more, the article presents the process of the Inuit’s emancipation and its influence on this group. In the article, the author used the text source analysis method, historical analysis method and conducted an analysis of legal acts from the Danish colonial period.Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie procesu emancypacji politycznej Inuitów w Grenlandii w historycznym okresie kolonializmu duńskiego. Autor rozpatrzył problem kolonializmu w Grenlandii z dwóch perspektyw. Z jednej strony jako zagrożenie, godzące w tradycyjny styl życia Inuitów, natomiast z drugiej strony jako szansę na zainicjowanie procesu zwiększonego zaangażowania rdzennej populacji wyspy w procesy decyzyjne. Problem badawczy zawiera się w pytaniach o prawdziwe motywacje władz kolonialnych względem inicjacji procesu emancypacyjnego ludności rdzennej.Autor skłonił się do kontrowersyjnej tezy, która jest stwierdzeniem, iż duński kolonializm pomimo stosowania opresyjnych nadużyć wobec rdzennej populacji Grenlandii umożliwił jej stopniowy rozwój społeczno-polityczny przez proces emancypacji politycznej.W poszczególnych częściach artykułu przedstawiono m.in. genezę rozwoju kolonializmu duńskiego na obszarze Północnego Atlantyku. Ukazano również stosunek władzy kolonialnej do Inuitów i charakterystykę funkcjonowania kolonii grenlandzkiej. Głównym trzonem rozważań był rozwój roli społeczno-politycznej Inuitów i ich zaangażowanie w sprawy lokalne w okresie duńskiego kolonializmu na wyspie. Proces ten został ukazany trójetapowo. Autor odniósł się również do konsekwencji procesu emancypacji dla obecnej sytuacji Inuitów. W artykule wykorzystano analizę źródeł tekstowych zarówno pierwotnych, jak i wtórnych, analizę historyczną oraz analizę aktów prawnych z okresu kolonialnego

Proces kształtowania się grenlandzkiego ruchu separatystycznego w latach 1964–1979

Przedmiotem artykułu jest historia kształtowania się ruchu separatystycznego w Grenlandii w latach 1964–1979. Jego powstanie i rozwój przypadają na okres gwałtownych przemian społeczno-gospodarczych na wyspie, zainicjowanych przez państwo duńskie. Ich celem stało się dostosowanie społeczeństwa, a także gospodarki Grenlandii do warunków panujących w pozostałych częściach państwa. Zmiany te zostały wymuszone ewolucją statusu prawnego wyspy dokonanego w 1953 roku na mocy nowej konstytucji monarchii duńskiej. Terytorium Grenlandii zostało powiązane „wspólnotą prawną” z Danią, stając się jej jednostką administracyjną. Grenlandzki ruch separatystyczny to oddolny ruch społeczny, który narodził się wśród grenlandzkiej młodzieży studiującej na duńskich uniwersytetach. Za wzrostem niezadowolenia stały czynniki o charakterze społeczno-ekonomicznym, politycznym i kulturowym. Aktywność polityczna i separatystyczna umożliwiła uzyskanie przez Grenlandczyków autonomii w 1979 roku. W poszczególnych częściach artykułu przedstawiono m.in. analizę terminologiczną zagadnienia separatyzm; ukazano uwarunkowania powstania ruchu separatystycznego. Wskazano przebieg jego działalności, wymiar założeń ideologicznych, a także jego organizację. W artykule wykorzystano analizę źródeł pierwotnych i wtórnych, analizy: czynnikową, historyczną oraz politologiczną

Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom, 2010 - 2060: an exploration using Bayesian models

Over the next fifty years the potential impact on human livelihoods of environmental change could be considerable. One possible response may be increased levels of human mobility. This paper offers a first quantification of the levels of environmental migration to the United Kingdom that might be expected. The authors apply Bijak and Wi?niowski’s (2010) methodology for forecasting migration using Bayesian models. They seek to advance the conceptual understanding of forecasting in three ways. First, the paper is believed to be the first time that the Bayesian modelling approach has been attempted in relation to environmental mobility. Second, the paper examines the plausibility of Bayesian modelling of UK immigration by cross-checking expert responses to a Delphi survey with the expectations about environmental mobility evident in the recent research literature. Third, the values and assumptions of the expert evidence provided in the Delphi survey are interrogated to illustrate the limited set of conditions under which the forecasts of environmental mobility, as set out in this paper, are likely to hold

The Democratic Republic of Congo armed conflict (1998 – 2004): assessing excess mortality based on factual and counter-factual projection scenarios

To document the scale and scope of the 1998–2004 armed conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the current study combined four different data sources: the 1984 DRC Population Census, the 1995 and 2001 DRC Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and the 2007 DRC Demographic and Health Survey, to reconstruct missing demographic estimates and assess the level of excess mortality associated with the conflict, going from 1998 to 2007. Findings from this study do not corroborate previous estimates on the same armed conflict and for the same period: these range from excess mortality of 5.4 million population according to Coghlan et al. (2009), to 0.2 million according to Lambert and Lohlé-Tart (2008). The cohort component projection method as used in this study is a cost-effective approach as it allows the analysis of a complex issue, that is excess mortality associated with an armed conflict, with relatively modest resources. This study highlights that the choice of baseline rates is a key factor in determining the level of excess mortality when data points are scarce. This study produced a range of plausible estimates of excess mortality between 1 and 1.9 million population rather than a single best estimate. The range of excess mortality produced in this study is narrower and less extreme when compared to previous studies on the same conflict. As a further contribution to the debate in this field, the current study advocates producing a range of plausible estimates rather than a single best estimate of excess mortality. This is justified by the uncertainties associated with the scarcity of the data, the statistical modelling and the overall analysis process