Immuno-epidemiological analysis of dengue to enhance surveillance.

As dengue continues to emerge globally, it is vital surveillance systems in endemic countries optimise routine case report data to accurately monitor dengue burden and target limited control interventions. Typical dengue surveillance practices, that often rely on case counts, are heavily distorted by underreporting. The WHO therefore promotes integrating additional surveillance practices to better describe dengue transmission. Across the Philippines, recently established laboratory surveillance routinely collects molecular and serological metrics from cross-sectional surveys of suspected dengue case reports. Research in this thesis aimed to investigate how analysis of laboratory surveillance data could be enhanced to better characterise dengue transmission dynamics across the country. The variable clinical manifestations associated with dengue are influenced by successive serotype (DENV1-4) infections individuals experience and contribute to disease underreporting. Severe dengue disease is associated with a second DENV infection. However, distinguishing primary and secondary immune status remains challenging as molecular and serological kinetics change rapidly during disease and existing methods rely on paired sera collected from patients. Here, mixture modelling approaches were adopted to characterise DENV antibody dynamics and develop a dengue immune status algorithm that could determine primary and post-primary (secondary, tertiary or quaternary) status among acute-stage dengue case reports using single serum samples. This framework achieved 90.5% agreement with the WHO gold standard method using paired sera. Surveillance metrics from this algorithm were then investigated as potential surrogate indicators of the dengue force of infection (FOI) estimated using catalytic models of age-seroprevalence and compared using Pearson’s R correlation coefficient. Across cities, the mean annual age of reporting primary infections strongly correlated (ρ: -0.85, p-value<0.001) with the FOI and highlighted prominent spatio-temporal heterogeneity in dengue burden. Notably, results also revealed reported dengue incidence was higher in cities with lower dengue FOI (ρ: -0.69, p-value:0.009) suggesting case reports represent inferior indicators of dengue burden. Common dengue serological diagnostics detect flavivirus cross-reactive antibodies and growing evidence suggests prior Zika virus exposure exacerbates subsequent dengue disease. Therefore, serological evidence of Zika was explored among dengue case reports. Findings revealed historical Zika exposure was widespread across the Philippines and an estimated 5.7% (95%CI: 3.0–10.4%) of the population became infected annually. To enhance dengue surveillance practices in low resource settings where laboratory testing is unfeasible, logistic regression models were utilised to determine dengue immune status using point-of-care rapid diagnostic tests. On specific days of disease, certain combinations of rapid test outcomes gave rise to clear immune status classifications. Together, findings in this report demonstrate how characterising dengue immune status can enhance laboratory surveillance to accurately monitor dengue transmission intensity

XMM-Newton Observations of Radio Pulsars B0834+06 and B0826-34 and Implications for Pulsar Inner Accelerator

We report the X-ray observations of two radio pulsars with drifting subpulses: B0834 + 06 and B0826 - 34 using \xmm\. PSR B0834 + 06 was detected with a total of 70 counts from the three EPIC instruments over 50 ks exposure time. Its spectrum was best described as that of a blackbody (BB) with temperature $T_s=(2.0^{+2.0}_{-0.9}) \times 10^6$ K and bolometric luminosity of $L_b=(8.6^{+14.2}_{-4.4}) \times 10^{28}$ erg s$^{-1}$. As it is typical in pulsars with BB thermal components in their X-ray spectra, the hot spot surface area is much smaller than that of the canonical polar cap, implying a non-dipolar surface magnetic field much stronger than the dipolar component derived from the pulsar spin-down (in this case about 50 times smaller and stronger, respectively). The second pulsar PSR B0826 - 34 was not detected over 50 ks exposure time, giving an upper limit for the bolometric luminosity $L_b \leq 1.4 \times 10^{29}$ erg s$^{-1}$. We use these data as well as the radio emission data concerned with drifting subpulses to test the Partially Screened Gap (PSG) model of the inner accelerator in pulsars.Comment: Accepted for publication by The Astrophysical Journa

High performance structural laminate composite material for use to 1000.degree. F. and above, apparatus for and method of manufacturing same, and articles made with same

A novel materials technology has been developed and demonstrated for providing a high modulus composite material for use to 1000.degree. F. and above. This material can be produced at 5-20% of the cost of refractory materials, and has higher structural properties. This technology successfully resolves the problem of thermal shock or ply lift, which limits traditional high temperature laminates (such as graphite/polyimide and graphite/phenolic) to temperatures of 550-650.degree. F. in thicker (0.25 and above) laminates. The technology disclosed herein is an enabling technology for the nose for the External Tank (ET) of the Space Shuttle, and has been shown to be capable of withstanding the severe environments encountered by the nose cone through wind tunnel testing, high temperature subcomponent testing, and full scale structural, dynamic, acoustic, and damage tolerance testing

Summertime Nutrient Supply to Near-Surface Waters of the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico: 1998, 1999, and 2000

In the summers of 1998, 1999, and 2000, deep water eddies induced strong anticyclonic currents along the upper slope and outer shelf from the Mississippi River delta to the west Florida shelf. Those currents transported Mississippi River discharge eastward along the outer shelf and slope, reversing the normal offshore increase in salinity, with the exception of a few regions very near the coast that were influenced by the discharges from other rivers or bays. The entrainment of low-salinity river water resulted in anomalously high chlorophyll a concentrations in the upper 15 m over the outer shelf and upper slope, in contrast to the concentrations that typically occur over deep water in the subtropics in summer. Nitrate concentrations in this surface water were quite low except near the mouths of rivers, which act as point sources for nutrients; presumably, this was because of the rapid utilization of nitrate by phytoplankton. A significant supply of nutrients to the euphotic zone at regions quite removed from these point sources resulted from eddies intruding onto or formed over the slope. These caused mid-depth water rich in nutrients to be uplifted to within the euphotic zone, the uplift depending on the location and intensity of the eddies. Based on measurements at approximately 100 stations on each cruise, estimates were made of the quantity of nitrate and silicate in the upper 15 m of the water column and in the depth interval from 15m to 60 m, the nominal depth of the euphotic zone. Study results suggest that the nitrate and silicate in the near-surface interval of 0-15 m largely resulted from riverine discharge and subsequent advection, while the nutrients between 15 and 60 m resulted from uplift of waters by circulation features. The euphotic zone occupied at least the upper 60 m of the water column, but standing stocks of nitrate and silicate in the 15- to 60-m layer were between two and six times those in the upper 15 m on all three cruises and appeared to depend on the strength and relative proximity to the shelf break of local anticyclonic features. The effects of these circulation features were potentially significant in supplying nutrients to the euphotic zone during these summers

Families of Graphs with W_r({G},q) Functions That Are Nonanalytic at 1/q=0

Denoting $P(G,q)$ as the chromatic polynomial for coloring an $n$-vertex graph $G$ with $q$ colors, and considering the limiting function $W(\{G\},q) = \lim_{n \to \infty}P(G,q)^{1/n}$, a fundamental question in graph theory is the following: is $W_r(\{G\},q) = q^{-1}W(\{G\},q)$ analytic or not at the origin of the $1/q$ plane? (where the complex generalization of $q$ is assumed). This question is also relevant in statistical mechanics because $W(\{G\},q)=\exp(S_0/k_B)$, where $S_0$ is the ground state entropy of the $q$-state Potts antiferromagnet on the lattice graph $\{G\}$, and the analyticity of $W_r(\{G\},q)$ at $1/q=0$ is necessary for the large-$q$ series expansions of $W_r(\{G\},q)$. Although $W_r$ is analytic at $1/q=0$ for many $\{G\}$, there are some $\{G\}$ for which it is not; for these, $W_r$ has no large-$q$ series expansion. It is important to understand the reason for this nonanalyticity. Here we give a general condition that determines whether or not a particular $W_r(\{G\},q)$ is analytic at $1/q=0$ and explains the nonanalyticity where it occurs. We also construct infinite families of graphs with $W_r$ functions that are non-analytic at $1/q=0$ and investigate the properties of these functions. Our results are consistent with the conjecture that a sufficient condition for $W_r(\{G\},q)$ to be analytic at $1/q=0$ is that $\{G\}$ is a regular lattice graph $\Lambda$. (This is known not to be a necessary condition).Comment: 22 pages, Revtex, 4 encapsulated postscript figures, to appear in Phys. Rev.

Ambulatory teaching: Do approaches to learning predict the site and preceptor characteristics valued by clerks and residents in the ambulatory setting?

BACKGROUND: In a study to determine the site and preceptor characteristics most valued by clerks and residents in the ambulatory setting we wished to confirm whether these would support effective learning. The deep approach to learning is thought to be more effective for learning than surface approaches. In this study we determined how the approaches to learning of clerks and residents predicted the valued site and preceptor characteristics in the ambulatory setting. METHODS: Postal survey of all medical residents and clerks in training in Ontario determining the site and preceptor characteristics most valued in the ambulatory setting. Participants also completed the Workplace Learning questionnaire that includes 3 approaches to learning scales and 3 workplace climate scales. Multiple regression analysis was used to predict the preferred site and preceptor characteristics as the dependent variables by the average scores of the approaches to learning and perception of workplace climate scales as the independent variables. RESULTS: There were 1642 respondents, yielding a 47.3% response rate. Factor analysis revealed 7 preceptor characteristics and 6 site characteristics valued in the ambulatory setting. The Deep approach to learning scale predicted all of the learners' preferred preceptor characteristics (β = 0.076 to β = 0.234, p < .001). Valuing preceptor Direction was more strongly associated with the Surface Rational approach (β = .252, p < .001) and with the Surface Disorganized approach to learning (β = .154, p < 001) than with the Deep approach. The Deep approach to learning scale predicted valued site characteristics of Office Management, Patient Logistics, Objectives and Preceptor Interaction (p < .001). The Surface Rational approach to learning predicted valuing Learning Resources and Clinic Set-up (β = .09, p = .001; β = .197, p < .001). The Surface Disorganized approach to learning weakly negatively predicted Patient Logistics (β = -.082, p = .003) and positively the Learning Resources (β = .088, p = .003). Climate factors were not strongly predictive for any studied characteristics. Role Modeling and Patient Logistics were predicted by Supportive Receptive climate (β = .135, p < .001, β = .118, p < .001). CONCLUSION: Most site and preceptor characteristics valued by clerks and residents were predicted by their Deep approach to learning scores. Some characteristics reflecting the need for good organization and clear direction are predicted by learners' scores on less effective approaches to learning

Ground State Entropy of Potts Antiferromagnets: Bounds, Series, and Monte Carlo Measurements

We report several results concerning $W(\Lambda,q)=\exp(S_0/k_B)$, the exponent of the ground state entropy of the Potts antiferromagnet on a lattice $\Lambda$. First, we improve our previous rigorous lower bound on $W(hc,q)$ for the honeycomb (hc) lattice and find that it is extremely accurate; it agrees to the first eleven terms with the large-$q$ series for $W(hc,q)$. Second, we investigate the heteropolygonal Archimedean $4 \cdot 8^2$ lattice, derive a rigorous lower bound, on $W(4 \cdot 8^2,q)$, and calculate the large-$q$ series for this function to $O(y^{12})$ where $y=1/(q-1)$. Remarkably, these agree exactly to all thirteen terms calculated. We also report Monte Carlo measurements, and find that these are very close to our lower bound and series. Third, we study the effect of non-nearest-neighbor couplings, focusing on the square lattice with next-nearest-neighbor bonds.Comment: 13 pages, Latex, to appear in Phys. Rev.

R.A.Fisher, design theory, and the Indian connection

Design Theory, a branch of mathematics, was born out of the experimental statistics research of the population geneticist R. A. Fisher and of Indian mathematical statisticians in the 1930s. The field combines elements of combinatorics, finite projective geometries, Latin squares, and a variety of further mathematical structures, brought together in surprising ways. This essay will present these structures and ideas as well as how the field came together, in itself an interesting story.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figure