Estimation in a Competing Risks Proportional Hazards Model Under Length-biased Sampling With Censoring

International audienceWhat population does the sample represent? The answer to this question is of crucial importance when estimating a survivor function in duration studies. As is well-known, in a stationary population, survival data obtained from a cross-sectional sample taken from the population at time $t_0$ represents not the target density $f(t)$ but its length-biased version proportional to $tf(t)$, for $t>0$. The problem of estimating survivor function from such length-biased samples becomes more complex, and interesting, in presence of competing risks and censoring. This paper lays out a sampling scheme related to a mixed Poisson process and develops nonparametric estimators of the survivor function of the target population assuming that the two independent competing risks have proportional hazards. Two cases are considered: with and without independent consoring before length biased sampling. In each case, the weak convergence of the process generated by the proposed estimator is proved. A well-known study of the duration in power for political leaders is used to illustrate our results. Finally, a simulation study is carried out in order to assess the finite sample behaviour of our estimators

The F0F1-ATP Synthase Complex Contains Novel Subunits and Is Essential for Procyclic Trypanosoma brucei

The mitochondrial F0F1 ATP synthase is an essential multi-subunit protein complex in the vast majority of eukaryotes but little is known about its composition and role in Trypanosoma brucei, an early diverged eukaryotic pathogen. We purified the F0F1 ATP synthase by a combination of affinity purification, immunoprecipitation and blue-native gel electrophoresis and characterized its composition and function. We identified 22 proteins of which five are related to F1 subunits, three to F0 subunits, and 14 which have no obvious homology to proteins outside the kinetoplastids. RNAi silencing of expression of the F1 α subunit or either of the two novel proteins showed that they are each essential for the viability of procyclic (insect stage) cells and are important for the structural integrity of the F0F1-ATP synthase complex. We also observed a dramatic decrease in ATP production by oxidative phosphorylation after silencing expression of each of these proteins while substrate phosphorylation was not severely affected. Our procyclic T. brucei cells were sensitive to the ATP synthase inhibitor oligomycin even in the presence of glucose contrary to earlier reports. Hence, the two novel proteins appear essential for the structural organization of the functional complex and regulation of mitochondrial energy generation in these organisms is more complicated than previously thought

Identification of compounds with anti-proliferative activity against Trypanosoma brucei brucei strain 427 by a whole cell viability based HTS campaign

Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) is caused by two trypanosome sub-species, Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense and Trypanosoma brucei gambiense. Drugs available for the treatment of HAT have significant issues related to difficult administration regimes and limited efficacy across species and disease stages. Hence, there is considerable need to find new alternative and less toxic drugs. An approach to identify starting points for new drug candidates is high throughput screening (HTS) of large compound library collections. We describe the application of an Alamar Blue based, 384-well HTS assay to screen a library of 87,296 compounds against the related trypanosome subspecies, Trypanosoma brucei brucei bloodstream form lister 427. Primary hits identified against T.b. brucei were retested and the IC(50) value compounds were estimated for T.b. brucei and a mammalian cell line HEK293, to determine a selectivity index for each compound. The screening campaign identified 205 compounds with greater than 10 times selectivity against T.b. brucei. Cluster analysis of these compounds, taking into account chemical and structural properties required for drug-like compounds, afforded a panel of eight compounds for further biological analysis. These compounds had IC(50) values ranging from 0.22 µM to 4 µM with associated selectivity indices ranging from 19 to greater than 345. Further testing against T.b. rhodesiense led to the selection of 6 compounds from 5 new chemical classes with activity against the causative species of HAT, which can be considered potential candidates for HAT early drug discovery. Structure activity relationship (SAR) mining revealed components of those hit compound structures that may be important for biological activity. Four of these compounds have undergone further testing to 1) determine whether they are cidal or static in vitro at the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC), and 2) estimate the time to kill

Revolutions and the Military: Endgame Coups, Instability, and Prospects for Democracy

This article presents a systematic analysis of military coups following popular mass uprisings in nondemocratic regimes, conceptualized as endgame coups. Drawing on our original, medium-n data set of revolutionary situations, we find that such endgame coups form a distinct type of military intervention in politics. Compared to regular coups, episodes of popular mass contestation prompt conservative interventions in politics of the military’s leadership aimed at preserving the regime’s authoritarian infrastructure. A systematic test of factors characterizing postcoup political trajectories is based on Cox proportional hazard models and provides empirical evidence in contrast to the widely held notion of “democratic coups.” Our findings reveal that endgame coups are conservative rollback coups, executed by military leaderships, that result in continued political instability and illiberal politics