Roles of inventory and reserve capacity in mitigating supply chain disruption risk

This research focuses on managing disruption risk in supply chains using inventory and reserve capacity under stochastic demand. While inventory can be considered as a speculative risk mitigation lever, reserve capacity can be used in a reactive fashion when a disruption occurs. We determine optimal inventory levels and reserve capacity production rates for a firm that is exposed to supply chain disruption risk. We fully characterize four main risk mitigation strategies: inventory strategy, reserve capacity strategy, mixed strategy and passive acceptance. We illustrate how the optimal risk mitigation strategy depends on product characteristics (functional versus innovative) and supply chain characteristics (agile versus efficient). This work is inspired from a risk management problem of a leading pharmaceutical company

A systematic review of heat recovery from roads for mitigating urban heat island effects: current state and future directions

Heat recovery from roads is a promising technology to address the urban heat island effect. This review paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the current state and future directions of heat recovery from roads to address the urban heat island effect while generating renewable energy. The study covers various aspects such as theoretical background, economic feasibility, environmental impact, and materials design techniques. A systematic search of relevant literature was conducted to analyze and synthesize different heat recovery systems’ efficiency, performance, and potential. The paper also discusses the economic feasibility and environmental impact of these systems, including installation and maintenance costs, revenue generation, and local ecosystem impact. The review explores the role of different materials, such as PEX pipe, asphalt mix, and carbon nanotubes, in improving heat harvesting systems’ efficiency. The paper concludes with a discussion of research gaps and future directions in the field of heat recovery from roads. This study provides a valuable resource for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers interested in sustainable and efficient energy system development

Species-specific differences in the Pro-Ala rich region of cardiac myosin binding protein-C

Cardiac myosin binding protein-C (cMyBP-C) is an accessory protein found in the A-bands of vertebrate sarcomeres and mutations in the cMyBP-C gene are a leading cause of familial hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. The regulatory functions of cMyBP-C have been attributed to the N-terminus of the protein, which is composed of tandem immunoglobulin (Ig)-like domains (C0, C1, and C2), a region rich in proline and alanine residues (the Pro-Ala rich region) that links C0 and C1, and a unique sequence referred to as the MyBP-C motif, or M-domain, that links C1 and C2. Recombinant proteins that contain various combinations of the N-terminal domains of cMyBP-C can activate actomyosin interactions in the absence of Ca2+, but the specific sequences required for these effects differ between species; the Pro-Ala region has been implicated in human cMyBP-C whereas the C1 and M-domains appear important in mouse cMyBP-C. To investigate whether species-specific differences in sequence can account for the observed differences in function, we compared sequences of the Pro-Ala rich region in cMyBP-C isoforms from different species. Here we report that the number of proline and alanine residues in the Pro-Ala rich region varies significantly between different species and that the number correlates directly with mammalian body size and inversely with heart rate. Thus, systematic sequence differences in the Pro-Ala rich region of cMyBP-C may contribute to observed functional differences in human versus mouse cMyBP-C isoforms and suggest that the Pro-Ala region may be important in matching contractile speed to cardiac function across species

Psychometric properties of a German version of the neck pain and disability scale

The aim of this study is to evaluate the validity and the psychometric properties of a German version of the 20-item neck pain and disability scale (NPAD) for use in primary care settings. Four hundred and forty-eight participants from 15 general practices in the area of Göttingen Germany completed a multidimensional questionnaire including a newly developed German version of the NPAD (NPAD-d) and self-reported demographic and clinical information. Reliability was tested using Cronbach’s alpha. Item-to-total score correlations were analysed. Factor structure was explored by using unrestricted principal factor analysis. Construct validity of the NPAD-d was evaluated by simple correlation analyses (Pearson’s rho) with social and clinical characteristics. The discriminative abilities of the NPAD-d were examined by comparing differences between subgroups stratified on non-NPAD-d pain related characteristics using t tests for mean scores. Cronbach’s alpha of NPAD-d was 0.94. Item-to-total scale correlations ranged between 0.414 and 0.829. Exploratory principal factor analysis indicated that the NPAD-d covers one factor with an explained variance of 48%. Correlation analysis showed high correlations with criterion variables. The NAPD-d scores of subgroups of patients were significantly different showing good discriminative validity of the scale. The NPAD-d demonstrated good validity and reliability in this general practice setting. The NPAD-d may be useful in the clinical assessment process and the management of neck pain

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Sensitivity to change of the Neck Pain and Disability Scale

The Neck Pain and Disability Scale (NPAD) is a 20-item instrument to measure neck pain and related disability. The aim of this study was to assess sensitivity to change of the NPAD. A total of 411 participants from 15 general practices in the middle of Germany completed a multidimensional questionnaire including the German version of the NPAD and self-reported demographic and clinical information. Sensitivity to change was analysed by linear regression analysis of the NPAD at follow-up and educational level, age class, depression, anxiety, and deficits in social support, respectively, and by Pearson’s correlation analyses between mean change in NPAD at follow-up and mean change in prognostic markers. Those having more than basic education (regression coefficient −7.2, p < 0.001) and/or being in a younger age class (−2.9, p = 0.020) consistently reported significantly lower average NPAD scores at follow-up compared to those with basic education and/or a older age class. In contrast, those who were classified to be depressed (regression coefficient 2.1, p < 0.001), anxious (1.9, p < 0.001), or having deficits in social support (5.5, p = 0.004) reported significantly higher NPAD scores. Change in depression, anxiety, and social support scale between baseline and follow-up was significantly correlated with change in the NPAD score. Hence, these data are in the direction anticipated across all baseline factors investigated. In conclusion, the NPAD seems to be a sensitive measure for use in clinical practice and future studies of neck pain and related disability

Global, regional, and national burden of respiratory tract cancers and associated risk factors from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Prevention, control, and treatment of respiratory tract cancers are important steps towards achieving target 3.4 of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)—a one-third reduction in premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases by 2030. We aimed to provide global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 methodology, we evaluated the incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of respiratory tract cancers (ie, tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer). Deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer attributable to each risk factor were estimated on the basis of risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input from 204 countries and territories, stratified by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Trends were estimated from 1990 to 2019, with an emphasis on the 2010-19 period. Findings Globally, there were 2·26 million (95% uncertainty interval 2·07 to 2·45) new cases of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, and 2·04 million (1·88 to 2·19) deaths and 45·9 million (42·3 to 49·3) DALYs due to tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer in 2019. There were 209 000 (194 000 to 225 000) new cases of larynx cancer, and 123 000 (115 000 to 133 000) deaths and 3·26 million (3·03 to 3·51) DALYs due to larynx cancer globally in 2019. From 2010 to 2019, the number of new tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer cases increased by 23·3% (12·9 to 33·6) globally and the number of larynx cancer cases increased by 24·7% (16·0 to 34·1) globally. Global age-standardised incidence rates of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer decreased by 7·4% (−16·8 to 1·6) and age-standardised incidence rates of larynx cancer decreased by 3 ·0% (−10·5 to 5·0) in males over the past decade; however, during the same period, age-standardised incidence rates in females increased by 0·9% (−8·2 to 10·2) for tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and decreased by 0·5% (−8·4 to 8·1) for larynx cancer. Furthermore, although age-standardised incidence and death rates declined in both sexes combined from 2010 to 2019 at the global level for tracheal, bronchus, lung and larynx cancers, some locations had rising rates, particularly those on the lower end of the SDI range. Smoking contributed to an estimated 64·2% (61·9–66·4) of all deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and 63·4% (56·3–69·3) of all deaths from larynx cancer in 2019. For males and for both sexes combined, smoking was the leading specific risk factor for age-standardised deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer per 100 000 in all SDI quintiles and GBD regions in 2019. However, among females, household air pollution from solid fuels was the leading specific risk factor in the low SDI quintile and in three GBD regions (central, eastern, and western sub-Saharan Africa) in 2019. Interpretation The numbers of incident cases and deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer increased globally during the past decade. Even more concerning, age-standardised incidence and death rates due to tracheal, bronchus, lung cancer and larynx cancer increased in some populations—namely, in the lower SDI quintiles and among females. Preventive measures such as smoking control interventions, air quality management programmes focused on major air pollution sources, and widespread access to clean energy should be prioritised in these settings

Burden of injury along the development spectrum: Associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. Methods: Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. Results: For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. Conclusions: The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum