Detection of hydrogeochemical seismic precursors by a statistical learning model

Abstract. The problem of detecting the occurrence of an earthquake precursor is faced in the general framework of the statistical learning theory. The aim of this work is both to build models able to detect seismic precursors from time series of different geochemical signals and to provide an estimate of number of false positives. The model we used is k-Nearest-Neighbor classifier for discriminating "no-disturbed signal", "seismic precursor" and "co-post seismic precursor" in time series relative to thirteen different hydrogeochemical parameters collected in water samples from a natural spring in Kamchachta (Russia) peninsula. The measurements collected are ion content (Na, Cl, Ca, HCO3, H3BO3), parameters (pH, Q, T) and gases (N2, CO2, CH4, O2, Ag). The classification error is measured by Leave-K-Out-Cross-Validation procedure. Our study shows that the most discriminative ions for detecting seismic precursors are Cl and Na having an error rates of 15%. Moreover, the most discriminative parameters and gases are Q and CH4 respectively, with error rate of 21%. The ions result the most informative hydrogeochemicals for detecting seismic precursors due to the peculiarities of the mechanisms involved in earthquake preparation. Finally we show that the information collected some month before the event under analysis are necessary to improve the classification accuracy.</p

Influence of seismic activity on the atmospheric electric field in Lisbon (Portugal) from 1955 to 1991

In the present study, we considered the influence of seismic activity on the atmospheric electric field recorded at Portela meteorological station (Lisbon, Portugal) for the period from 1955 to 1991. To this end, an exploratory method was developed, which involved the selection of events for which the distance from the atmospheric electrical field sensor to the earthquake epicenter is smaller than the preparation radius of the event. This enabled the correlation of the atmospheric electric field variations with a quantity S, defined basically as the ratio of the earthquake preparation radius to the distance between the sensor and the event epicenter. The first results show promising perspectives, but clearly a more profound study is required, in which a careful analysis of the weather conditions and other variables, like atmospheric radon levels, must be considered

The European VLF/LF radio network: current status

For several years researches about correlation between seismicity and disturbances in radio broadcasting are being carried out: in particular, the Japanese Pacific VLF radio network and the European VLF–LF radio network have been developed during the last years. The European network has been developed starting from two LF receivers located in central Italy in 1996. Up to now, 11 receivers of a new type, able to sample the VLF and LF intensity of ten radio signals, are being into operation in different European countries. The daily updating of data is effective and the data bank is located at the Department of Physics of the University of Bari (Italy) which is the central node of the network. In order to discover anomalies, the software able to carry out automatically a daily data analysis by the Wavelet spectra method has been planned and realized. At the moment, the software operates on four signals (two LF and two VLF) collected by one of the receiver located in Italy. If the anomaly is particularly strong a warning system gives an advise on the work station into operation in the central node of the Network. In any case, before assuming an anomaly as a seismic anomaly, geomagnetic and meteorological data must be checked as well as any possible instrumental malfunction. At present these controls are carried out only discontinuously by the researchers of the Bari Team

Track reconstruction with MIMAC

Directional detection of Dark Matter is a promising search strategy. However, to perform such kind of detection, the recoiling tracks have to be accurately reconstructed: direction, sense and position in the detector volume. In order to optimize the track reconstruction and to fully exploit the data from the MIMAC detector, we developed a likelihood method dedicated to the track reconstruction. This likelihood approach requires a full simulation of track measurements with MIMAC in order to compare real tracks to simulated ones. Finally, we found that the MIMAC detector should have the required performance to perform a competitive directional detection of Dark Matter.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures; Proceedings of the 3rd International conference on Directional Detection of Dark Matter (CYGNUS 2011), Aussois, France, 8-10 June 201

Design for Robustness: Bio-Inspired Perspectives in Structural Engineering

Bio-inspired solutions are widely adopted in different engineering disciplines. However, in structural engineering, these solutions are mainly limited to bio-inspired forms, shapes, and materials. Nature is almost completely neglected as a source of structural design philosophy. This study lists and discusses several bio-inspired solutions classified into two main classes, i.e., compartmentalization and complexity, for structural robustness design. Different examples are provided and mechanisms are categorized and discussed in detail. Some provided ideas are already used in the current structural engineering research and practice, usually without focus on their bio-analogy. These solutions are revisited and scrutinized from a bio-inspired point of view, and new aspects and possible improvements are suggested. Moreover, novel bio-inspired concepts including delayed compartmentalization, active compartmentalization, compartmentalization in intact parts, and structural complexity are also propounded for structural design under extreme loading conditions

Tidal errors and deformations in regional GPS networks

At present, the tidal correction model described in the IERS 2003 Conventions should be applied in the processing of permanent networks: in brief, the model involves the computation of a first order tidal correction plus some corrective terms, as functions of space and time. In the BERNESE software, one of the main scientific softwares for GPS network processing, the IERS tidal model is implemented; in July 2004, a bug in the tidal correction routine was identified by one of the paper authors and corrected by the BERNESE staff: the error concerned a second order term, related to the semidiurnal tidal signal. An experimental analysis on the error effects in the results stemming from processing of regional networks has been carried out. A network of 8 European permanent GPS stations has been selected: the network choice ensures heterogeneity in the length and the orientation of the baselines. One year of data has been considered and two elaborations of the data have been performed using the BERNESE 4.2 SW, by applying the same processing strategy and, respectively, the wrong (old) and the right (corrected) tidal correction routine. The differences in the network results and the deformations caused by the error are discussed

Pressure effect in the X-ray intrinsic position resolution in noble gases and mixtures

A study of the gas pressure effect in the position resolution of an interacting X- or gamma-ray photon in a gas medium is performed. The intrinsic position resolution for pure noble gases (Argon and Xenon) and their mixtures with CO2 and CH4 were calculated for several gas pressures (1-10bar) and for photon energies between 5.4 and 60.0 keV, being possible to establish a linear match between the intrinsic position resolution and the inverse of the gas pressure in that energy range. In order to evaluate the quality of the method here described, a comparison between the available experimental data and the calculated one in this work, is done and discussed. In the majority of the cases, a strong agreement is observed