Inference on forward exchange rate risk premium: reviewing signal extraction methods

The existence of risk premium is thought to be the reason why forward exchange rate is not an unbiased predictor of future spot exchange rate. In this paper we review two methodologies for inferring this unobserved risk premium based upon signal extraction mechanism. One approach relies on the theory of derivatives pricing that relates historical and risk neutral measures via market price of risk. The other approach specifies the risk premium in the historical measure directly. We compare these two methods in predicting future spot exchange rates and contrast these with that of random walk forecast. © 2009 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd

Use of 1-menthyl ester as chiral auxiliary in the synthesis of useful chiral synthons

A simple method has been developed for the access to useful chiral synthons involving alkylation and Michael addition to 1-menthyl esters of cycloalkanone carboxylic acids

Probing pre-formed alpha particles in the ground state of nuclei

In this Letter, we report on alpha particle emission through the nuclear break-up in the reaction 40Ca on a 40Ca target at 50A MeV. It is observed that, similarly to nucleons, alpha particles can be emitted to the continuum with very specific angular distribution during the reaction. The alpha particle properties can be understood as resulting from an alpha cluster in the daughter nucleus that is perturbed by the short range nuclear attraction of the collision partner and emitted. A time-dependent theory that describe the alpha particle wave-function evolution is able to reproduce qualitatively the observed angular distribution. This mechanism offers new possibilities to study alpha particle properties in the nuclear medium.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Dynamic Conduction and Repolarisation Changes in Early Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy versus Benign Outflow Tract Ectopy Demonstrated by High Density Mapping and Paced Surface ECG Analysis

Aims: The concealed phase of arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) may initially manifest electrophysiologically. No studies have examined dynamic conduction/repolarization kinetics to distinguish benign right ventricular outflow tract ectopy (RVOT ectopy) from ARVC's early phase. We investigated dynamic endocardial electrophysiological changes that differentiate early ARVC disease expression from RVOT ectopy. Methods: 22 ARVC (12 definite based upon family history and mutation carrier status, 10 probable) patients without right ventricular structural anomalies underwent high-density non-contact mapping of the right ventricle. These were compared to data from 14 RVOT ectopy and 12 patients with supraventricular tachycardias and normal hearts. Endocardial & surface ECG conduction and repolarization parameters were assessed during a standard S1-S2 restitution protocol. Results: Definite ARVC without RV structural disease could not be clearly distinguished from RVOT ectopy during sinus rhythm or during steady state pacing. Delay in Activation Times at coupling intervals just above the ventricular effective refractory period (VERP) increased in definite ARVC (43±20 ms) more than RVOT ectopy patients (36±14 ms, p = 0.03) or Normals (25±16 ms, p = 0.008) and a progressive separation of the repolarisation time curves between groups existed. Repolarization time increases in the RVOT were also greatest in ARVC (definite ARVC: 18±20 ms; RVOT ectopy: 5±14, Normal: 1±18, p<0.05). Surface ECG correlates of these intracardiac measurements demonstrated an increase of greater than 48 ms in stimulus to surface ECG J-point pre-ERP versus steady state, with an 88% specificity and 68% sensitivity in distinguishing definite ARVC from the other groups. This technique could not distinguish patients with genetic predisposition to ARVC only (probable ARVC) from controls. Conclusions: Significant changes in dynamic conduction and repolarization are apparent in early ARVC before detectable RV structural abnormalities, and were present to a lesser degree in probable ARVC patients. Investigation of dynamic electrophysiological parameters may be useful to identify concealed ARVC in patients without disease pedigrees by using endocardial electrogram or paced ECG parameters