Domestic heating behaviour and room temperatures: Empirical evidence from Scottish homes

In this paper, we describe patterns of residential heating based on data from 255 homes in and around Edinburgh, Scotland, UK, spanning August 2016 to June 2018. We describe: (i) the room temperatures achieved, (ii) the diurnal durations of heating use, and (iii) common diurnal patterns of heating behaviour. We investigate how these factors vary between weekdays and weekends, over the course of the year, by external temperature, and by room type. We compare these empirical findings with the simplifying assumptions about heating patterns found in the UK’s Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP), a widely-used building energy performance model. There are areas of concurrence and others of substantial difference with these model assumptions. Indoor achieved temperatures are substantially lower than SAP assumptions. The duration and timings of heating use vary substantially between homes and along lines of season and outdoor temperature, whereas the SAP model assumes no such variation. Little variation is found along the lines of weekday vs. weekend, whereas the SAP model assumes differences, or between living space and other rooms, consistent with the SAP. The results are relevant for those interested in how SAP assumptions regarding household heating behaviours and achieved indoor temperatures concur with empirical data

Ocean ensemble forecasting. Part I: Ensemble Mediterranean winds from a Bayesian hierarchical model

A Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) is developed to estimate surface vector wind (SVW) fields and associated uncertainties over the Mediterranean Sea. The BHM–SVW incorporates data-stage inputs from analyses and forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and SVW retrievals from the QuikSCAT data record. The process-model stage of the BHM–SVW is based on a Rayleigh friction equation model for surface winds. Dynamical interpretations of posterior distributions of the BHM–SVW parameters are discussed. Ten realizations from the posterior distribution of the BHM–SVW are used to force the data-assimilation step of an experimental ensemble ocean forecast system for the Mediterranean Sea in order to create a set of ensemble initial conditions. The sequential data-assimilation method of the Mediterranean forecast system (MFS) is adapted to the ensemble implementation. Analyses of sample ensemble initial conditions for a single data-assimilation period in MFS are presented to demonstrate the multivariate impact of the BHM–SVW ensemble generation methodology. Ensemble initial-condition spread is quantified by computing standard deviations of ocean state variable fields over the ten ensemble members. The methodological findings in this article are of two kinds. From the perspective of statistical modelling, the process-model development is more closely related tophysicalbalances than inpreviousworkwithmodels for the SVW.Fromthe ocean forecast perspective, the generation of ocean ensemble initial conditions via BHM is shown to be practical for operational implementation in an ensemble ocean forecast system. Phenomenologically, ensemble spread generated via BHM–SVW occurs on ocean mesoscale time- and space-scales, in close association with strong synoptic-scale wind-forcing events. A companion article describes the impacts of the BHM–SVW ensemble method on the ocean forecast in comparisons with more traditional ensemble methods

Ocean ensemble forecasting. Part II: Mediterranean Forecast System response

This article analyzes the ocean forecast response to surface vector wind (SVW) distributions generated by a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) developed in Part I of this series. A new method for ocean ensemble forecasting (OEF), the socalled BHM-SVW-OEF, is described. BHM-SVW realizations are used to produce and force perturbations in the ocean state during 14 day analysis and 10 day forecast cycles of the Mediterranean Forecast System (MFS). The BHM-SVW-OEF ocean response spread is amplified at the mesoscales and in the pycnocline of the eddy field. The new method is compared with an ensemble response forced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system (EEPS) surface winds, and with an ensemble forecast started from perturbed initial conditions derived froman ad hoc thermocline intensified random perturbation (TIRP) method. The EEPS-OEF shows spread on basin scales while the TIRP-OEF response is mesoscale-intensified as in the BHM-SVW-OEF response. TIRP-OEF perturbations fill more of the MFS domain, while the BHM-SVW-OEF perturbations are more location-specific, concentrating ensemble spread at the sites where the ocean-model response to uncertainty in the surface wind forcing is largest

Modeling dynamic controls on ice streams: a Bayesian statistical approach

This is the published version, also available here: http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/002214308786570917.Our main goal is to exemplify the study of ice-stream dynamics via Bayesian statistical analysis incorporating physical, though imperfectly known, models using data that are both incomplete and noisy. The physical–statistical models we propose account for these uncertainties in a coherent, hierarchical manner. The initial modeling assumption estimates basal shear stress as equal to driving stress, but subsequently includes a random corrector process to account for model error. The resulting stochastic equation is incorporated into a simple model for surface velocities. Use of Bayes' theorem allows us to make inferences on all unknowns given basal elevation, surface elevation and surface velocity. The result is a posterior distribution of possible values that can be summarized in a number of ways. For example, the posterior mean of the stress field indicates average behavior at any location in the field, and the posterior standard deviations describe associated uncertainties. We analyze data from the 'Northeast Greenland Ice Stream' and illustrate how scientific conclusions may be drawn from our Bayesian analysis

Ocean Ensemble Forecasting, Part II: Mediterranean Forecast System Response

This paper analyzes the ocean forecast response to surface vector wind (SVW) distributions generated by a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) developed in Part I (Milliff et al., 2009). A new method for Ocean Ensemble Forecasting (OEF), so-called BHM-SVW-OEF, is described. BHM-SVW realizations are used to produce and force perturbations in the ocean state during 14-day analysis and 10-day forecast cycles of the Mediterranean Forecast System (MFS). The BHM-SVW-OEF ocean response spread is amplified at the mesoscales and pycnocline of the eddy field. The new method is compared to an ensemble response forced by ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EEPS) surface winds, and to an ensemble forecast started from perturbed initial conditions derived from an ad hoc Thermocline Intensified Random Perturbation (TIRP) method. The EEPS-OEF shows spread at the basin scales while the TIRP-OEF response is mesoscale intensified as in the BHM-SVW-OEF response. TIRP-OEF perturbations fill more of the MFS domain while the BHM-SVW-OEF perturbations are more location-specific, concentrating ensemble spread at the sites where the ocean model response to uncertainty in the surface wind forcing is largest. The BHM-SVW-OEF method offers a practical and objective means for producing short-term forecast spread by modeling surface atmospheric forcing uncertainties that have maximum impact at the ocean mesoscales

RiceWrist Robotic Device for Upper Limb Training: Feasibility Study and Case Report of Two Tetraplegic Persons with Spinal Cord Injury

Regaining upper extremity function is the primary concern of persons with tetraplegia caused by spinal cord injury (SCI). Robotic rehabilitation has been inadequately tested and underutilized in rehabilitation of the upper extremity in the SCI population. Given the acceptance of robotic training in stroke rehabilitation and SCI gait training, coupled with recent evidence that the spinal cord, like the brain, demonstrates plasticity that can be enhanced by repetitive movement training such as that available with robotic devices, it is probable that robotic upper extremity training of persons with SCI could be clinically beneficial. The primary goal of this pilot study was to test the feasibility of using a novel robotic device –the RiceWrist Exoskeleton- for rehabilitation of the upper limbs (UL) of two tetraplegic persons with incomplete SCI. Two pilot experiments were conducted. Experiment 1was the first novel attempt to administer treatment with the RiceWrist. The left UL of a tetraplegic subject was treated during seven therapy sessions. The subject’s feedback and the investigator’s obser-vations were used to enhance the robotic device and the corresponding graphical-interface. In Experiment 2, a second tetra-plegic subject underwent 10 three-hour training sessions administered by a physical therapist. Smoothness factor (FS) –a new measure developed in Experiment 1- was used as the primary outcome to test the subject’s performance before and after the training. The RiceWrist was modified according to the feedback obtained in Experiment 1. Thereafter, the device was suc-cessfully administered for upper limb training of the tetraplegic individual. Noticeable improvements in FS were observed for the stronger arm of the subject who completed 10 sessions of training. Improvements were also observed in the subject’s hand according to the Jebsen-Taylor Hand Function Test. Results from this study suggest a potential application of the RiceWrist for rehabilitation of SCI individuals and offer valuable information regarding development of UL robotic devices for this population

‘RE/TRS’ is a Girl’s Subject: Talking about Gender and the Discourse of ‘Religion’ in UK Educational Spaces

This article addresses what appears to be a retrenchment into narrower forms of identification and an increased suspicion of difference in the context of educational policy in the UK – especially in relation to ‘Religious Education’. The adoption of standardized management protocols – ‘managerialism’ – across most if not all policy contexts including public educational spaces reduces spaces for encountering or addressing genuine difference and for discovering something new and different. A theory of the ‘feminization of religion’ associated historically with Barbara Welter, provides some useful insights as to why this might be, suggesting that those in British society who would prefer to see greater separation from ‘religion’ in ‘secular’ schools may well also be caught up in forms of gender stereotyping

What makes you not a Buddhist? : a preliminary mapping of values

This study sets out to establish which Buddhist values contrasted with or were shared by adolescents from a non-Buddhist population. A survey of attitude toward a variety of Buddhist values was fielded in a sample of 352 non-Buddhist schoolchildren aged between 13 and 15 in London. Buddhist values where attitudes were least positive concerned the worth of being a monk/nun or meditating, offering candles & incense on the Buddhist shrine, friendship on Sangha Day, avoiding drinking alcohol, seeing the world as empty or impermanent and Nirvana as the ultimate peace. Buddhist values most closely shared by non-Buddhists concerned the Law of Karma, calming the mind, respecting those deserving of respect, subjectivity of happiness, welfare work, looking after parents in old age and compassion to cuddly animals. Further significant differences of attitude toward Buddhism were found in partial correlations with the independent variables of sex, age and religious affiliation. Correlation patterns paralleled those previously described in theistic religions. Findings are applied to spiritual, moral, social and cultural development and for the teaching of religious to pupils of no faith adherence. The study recommends that quantitative psychometrics employed to conceptualize Buddhist values by discriminant validity in this study could be extended usefully to other aspects of the study of Buddhism, particularly in quest of validity in the conceptualization of Buddhist identity within specifically Buddhist populations

Surgical Management of Inguinal Hernias at Bugando Medical Centre in Northwestern Tanzania: Our Experiences in a Resource-Limited Setting.

Inguinal hernia repair remains the commonest operation performed by general surgeons all over the world. There is paucity of published data on surgical management of inguinal hernias in our environment. This study is intended to describe our own experiences in the surgical management of inguinal hernias and compare our results with that reported in literature. A descriptive prospective study was conducted at Bugando Medical Centre in northwestern Tanzania. Ethical approval to conduct the study was obtained from relevant authorities before the commencement of the study. Statistical data analysis was done using SPSS software version 17.0. A total of 452 patients with inguinal hernias were enrolled in the study. The median age of patients was 36 years (range 3 months to 78 years). Males outnumbered females by a ratio of 36.7:1. This gender deference was statistically significant (P=0.003). Most patients (44.7%) presented late (more than five years of onset of hernia). Inguinoscrotal hernia (66.8%) was the commonest presentation. At presentation, 208 (46.0%) patients had reducible hernia, 110 (24.3%) had irreducible hernia, 84 (18.6%) and 50(11.1%) patients had obstructed and strangulated hernias respectively. The majority of patients (53.1%) had right sided inguinal hernia with a right-to-left ratio of 2.1: 1. Ninety-two (20.4%) patients had bilateral inguinal hernias. 296 (65.5%) patients had indirect hernia, 102 (22.6%) had direct hernia and 54 (11.9%) had both indirect and direct types (pantaloon hernia). All patients in this study underwent open herniorrhaphy. The majority of patients (61.5%) underwent elective herniorrhaphy under spinal anaesthesia (69.2%). Local anaesthesia was used in only 1.1% of cases. Bowel resection was required in 15.9% of patients. Modified Bassini's repair (79.9%) was the most common technique of posterior wall repair of the inguinal canal. Lichtenstein mesh repair was used in only one (0.2%) patient. Complication rate was 12.4% and it was significantly higher in emergency herniorrhaphy than in elective herniorrhaphy (P=0.002). The median length of hospital stay was 8 days and it was significantly longer in patients with advanced age, delayed admission, concomitant medical illness, high ASA class, the need for bowel resection and in those with surgical repair performed under general anesthesia (P<0.001). Mortality rate was 9.7%. Longer duration of symptoms, late hospitalization, coexisting disease, high ASA class, delayed operation, the need for bowel resection and presence of complications were found to be predictors of mortality (P<0.001). Inguinal hernias continue to be a source of morbidity and mortality in our centre. Early presentation and elective repair of inguinal hernias is pivotal in order to eliminate the morbidity and mortality associated with this very common problem

The Advanced LIGO Photon Calibrators

The two interferometers of the Laser Interferometry Gravitaional-wave Observatory (LIGO) recently detected gravitational waves from the mergers of binary black hole systems. Accurate calibration of the output of these detectors was crucial for the observation of these events, and the extraction of parameters of the sources. The principal tools used to calibrate the responses of the second-generation (Advanced) LIGO detectors to gravitational waves are systems based on radiation pressure and referred to as Photon Calibrators. These systems, which were completely redesigned for Advanced LIGO, include several significant upgrades that enable them to meet the calibration requirements of second-generation gravitational wave detectors in the new era of gravitational-wave astronomy. We report on the design, implementation, and operation of these Advanced LIGO Photon Calibrators that are currently providing fiducial displacements on the order of $10^{-18}$ m/$\sqrt{\textrm{Hz}}$ with accuracy and precision of better than 1 %.Comment: 14 pages, 19 figure