Development of economic forest tree breeding objectives

The overall objective of this thesis was to suggest a framework for developing forest tree breeding objectives with particular emphasis on boreal conditions and, as components of this framework, to define breeding objectives and calculate economic weights based on two case studies of Scots pine in northern Sweden. The framework was designed to take into account boreal conditions, with long rotations, heterogeneous raw materials and a diverse production system. It is suggested that the forest products industry should be divided into subsectors, each representing a particular industrial segment. For each subsector the production system studied should consist of a vertically integrated structure, with the aim of maximising profit, and in which all costs are considered variable. In addition, appropriate objective traits should be applicable over a wide range of site conditions, silvicultural regimes and industrial subsectors. The first case study examined how to calculate the economic weight of tree survival relative to volume production, taking patchiness into account. For this purpose a new model was developed and then applied to field data in order to obtain relative economic weights for a set of Scots pine breeding populations in northern Sweden. The relative economic weight of survival varied markedly between the studied breeding populations, increasing more than three-fold with decreasing survival and increasing patchiness. The second case study defined a breeding objective for a vertically integrated company in northern Sweden, which cultivates forests and supplies its own sawmill. Results showed that a compound growth indicator (height and diameter) was a very important selection criterion, while a wood density indicator was of moderate value and vitality and straightness indicators were of negligible value. The framework can be adapted to determine economic weights appropriate for a boreal forest sector with a diverse production system and can also act as a platform to assist strategic breeding decisions when there is uncertainty within the system. Within the framework, analyses may combine several different scenarios, for which subsectors can be allocated different sizes that represent their future relative importance based on predicted supply and demand

Model analysis of temperature impact on the Norway spruce provenance specific bud burst and associated risk of frost damage

The annual growth cycle of boreal trees is synchronized with seasonal changes in photoperiod and temperature. A warmer climate can lead to an earlier bud burst and increased risk of frost damage caused by temperature backlashes. In this study we analysed site- and provenance specific responses to interannual variation in temperature, using data from 18 Swedish and East-European provenances of Norway spruce (Picea abies), grown in three different sites in southern Sweden. The temperature sum requirements for bud burst, estimated from the provenance trials, were correlated with the provenance specific place of origin, in terms of latitudinal and longitudinal gradients. Frost damage had a significant effect on tree height development. Earlier timing of bud burst was linked to a higher risk of frost damage, with one of the sites being more prone to spring frost than the other two. The estimated provenance specific temperature sum requirements for bud burst were used to parametrize a temperature sum model of bud burst timing, which was then used together with the ensemble of gridded climate model data (RCP8.5) to assess the climate change impact on bud burst and associated risk of frost damage. In this respect, the simulated timing of bud burst and occurrence of frost events for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 were compared with 1989-2018. In response to a warmer climate, the total number of frost events in southern Sweden will decrease, while the number of frost events after bud burst will increase due to earlier bud burst timing. The provenance specific assessments of frost risk under climate change can be used for a selection of seed sources in Swedish forestry. In terms of selecting suitable provenances, knowledge on local climate conditions is of importance, as the gridded climate data may differ from local temperature conditions. A comparison with temperature logger data from ten different sites indicated that the gridded temperature data were a good proxy for the daily mean temperatures, but the gridded daily minimum temperatures tended to underestimate the local risk of frost events, in particular at the measurements 0.5 m above ground representing the height of newly established seedlings

The Impact of Drought Stress on the Height Growth of Young Norway Spruce Full-Sib and Half-Sib Clonal Trials in Sweden and Finland

The summer drought of 2018 was one of the most climatically severe events in Europe that led to record-breaking temperatures and wildfires in many parts of Europe. The main objective of this study was to assess the impact of the 2018 drought on the phenotypic and genetic response of Norway spruce height growth using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). To achieve this, the total cumulative height growth of about 6000 clones from 2016 to 2019 in four full-sib trials in Sweden, aged 6-7 years, and from 2017 to 2019 in two half-sib trials in Finland, aged 8-9 years, were measured. The results indicate that the 2018 drought caused reductions in the increment of trees. Although heritability estimates were similar to other reports for Norway spruce, the additive genetic variance was highly inflated in one of the visibly drought-damaged trials in Southern Sweden. Similarly, the genotype by environment (G x E) interaction was highly significant in the drought-damaged Southern Swedish trials. Both additive genetic and phenotypic correlations obtained between height increments in 2019 and final heights were the weakest in all studied trials, implying that the drought legacies might have influenced the recovery of trees in 2019. We may conclude that the severe drought can be an underlying factor for a strong G x E interaction and changes in the ranking of genotypes. Therefore, a selection of drought-resistant genotypes with a good growth capacity tested in variables sites should be considered as an important criterion for future breeding of Norway spruce

Scots pine transfer effect models for growth and survival in Sweden and Finland

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Genomic data provide new insights on the demographic history and the extent of recent material transfers in Norway spruce

Primeval forests are today exceedingly rare in Europe, and transfer of forest reproductive material for afforestation and improvement has been very common, especially over the last two centuries. This can be a serious impediment when inferring past population movements in response to past climate changes such as the last glacial maximum (LGM), some 18,000 years ago. In the present study, we genotyped 1,672 individuals from three Picea species (P. abies, P. obovata, and P. omorika) at 400K SNPs using exome capture to infer the past demographic history of Norway spruce (P. abies) and estimate the amount of recent introduction used to establish the Norway spruce breeding program in southern Sweden. Most of these trees belong to P. abies and originate from the base populations of the Swedish breeding program. Others originate from populations across the natural ranges of the three species. Of the 1,499 individuals stemming from the breeding program, a large proportion corresponds to recent introductions from mainland Europe. The split of P. omorika occurred 23 million years ago (mya), while the divergence between P. obovata and P. abies began 17.6 mya. Demographic inferences retrieved the same main clusters within P. abies than previous studies, that is, a vast northern domain ranging from Norway to central Russia, where the species is progressively replaced by Siberian spruce (P. obovata) and two smaller domains, an Alpine domain and a Carpathian one, but also revealed further subdivision and gene flow among clusters. The three main domains divergence was ancient (15 mya), and all three went through a bottleneck corresponding to the LGM. Approximately 17% of P. abies Nordic domain migrated from P. obovata ~103K years ago, when both species had much larger effective population sizes. Our analysis of genomewide polymorphism data thus revealed the complex demographic history of Picea genus in Western Europe and highlighted the importance of material transfer in Swedish breeding program

Teasing apart the joint effect of demography and natural selection in the birth of a contact zone

Vast population movements induced by recurrent climatic cycles have shaped the genetic structure of plant species. During glacial periods species were confined to low-latitude refugia from which they recolonized higher latitudes as the climate improved. This multipronged recolonization led to many lineages that later met and formed large contact zones. We utilize genomic data from 5000 Picea abies trees to test for the presence of natural selection during recolonization and establishment of a contact zone in Scandinavia. Scandinavian P. abies is today made up of a southern genetic cluster originating from the Baltics, and a northern one originating from Northern Russia. The contact zone delineating them closely matches the limit between two major climatic regions. We show that natural selection contributed to its establishment and maintenance. First, an isolation-with-migration model with genome-wide linked selection fits the data better than a purely neutral one. Second, many loci show signatures of selection or are associated with environmental variables. These loci, regrouped in clusters on chromosomes, are often related to phenology. Altogether, our results illustrate how climatic cycles, recolonization and selection can establish strong local adaptation along contact zones and affect the genetic architecture of adaptive traits

Strategies for deployment of reproductive material under supply limitations - a case study of Norway spruce seed sources in Sweden

The aim of this study was to analyze and compare the performance of Norway spruce seed sources from Swedish stands of East European origin (SweEast) with material from Swedish (SweSO) and East European (EastSO) seed orchards, and with material from Swedish (SweS) and East European (EastS) unimproved stands. The seed sources were field tested at six locations in southern Sweden and assessed for growth and phenology. The assessment of growth traits indicated that trees from SweSO and EastSO had 9-15% greater growth with respect to tree height and diameter in comparison to trees from Swedish local unimproved stands (SweS). Trees from SweEast and EastS showed around 5-7% greater growth. With respect to phenological traits, the expected later bud burst for EastS and EastSO in comparison to SweS, SweSO and SweEast was verified. However, SweEast exhibited earlier bud burst compared to EastS than what could be explained by pollination by Swedish pollen. This was explained by early land race formation for that trait. A strong positive correlation was observed between bud burst and frost damage, which indicates that earlier bud burst does indeed increase the risk of damage from late spring frost at frost-prone sites

Luftmaktsteoriers koppling till svensk doktrin : En kvalitativ undersökning av svensk doktrin

The Swedish armed forces doctrine does not disclose where the knowledge about the use of airpower was acquired. Earlier research supports the fact that doctrine needs to contain theory to support its legitimacy.  The purpose of this study is to examine whether the doctrine contains air power theory. The author believes that increased internationalization may have caused international air power theories to have been integrated in the doctrine.  The research was conducted as a qualitative research of the Swedish air force doctrine documents. The research intended to see if the air power theories of John Warden and Shaun Clark have influenced the doctrine.  The result of this study shows that the ideas of Shaun Clarke had a much higher presence than the ideas of John Warden. The study has shown that the Swedish air force doctrine has theoretical support. The study concludes that internationalizing has affected but not to the point where the Swedish air force blindly copied air power theories without it suiting the Swedish air force