Identifying important individual‐ and country‐level predictors of conspiracy theorizing: a machine learning analysis

Psychological research on the predictors of conspiracy theorizing—explaining important social and political events or circumstances as secret plots by malevolent groups—has flourished in recent years. However, research has typically examined only a small number of predictors in one, or a small number of, national contexts. Such approaches make it difficult to examine the relative importance of predictors, and risk overlooking some potentially relevant variables altogether. To overcome this limitation, the present study used machine learning to rank-order the importance of 115 individual- and country-level variables in predicting conspiracy theorizing. Data were collected from 56,072 respondents across 28 countries during the early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic. Echoing previous findings, important predictors at the individual level included societal discontent, paranoia, and personal struggle. Contrary to prior research, important country-level predictors included indicators of political stability and effective government COVID response, which suggests that conspiracy theorizing may thrive in relatively well-functioning democracies

Lockdown Lives: A Longitudinal Study of Inter-Relationships Among Feelings of Loneliness, Social Contacts, and Solidarity During the COVID-19 Lockdown in Early 2020

We examine how social contacts and feelings of solidarity shape experiences of loneliness during the COVID-19 lockdown in early 2020. From the PsyCorona database, we obtained longitudinal data from 23 countries, collected between March and May 2020. The results demonstrated that although online contacts help to reduce feelings of loneliness, people who feel more lonely are less likely to use that strategy. Solidarity played only a small role in shaping feelings of loneliness during lockdown. Thus, it seems we must look beyond the current focus on online contact and solidarity to help people address feelings of loneliness during lockdown. Finally, online contacts did not function as a substitute for face-to-face contacts outside the home—in fact, more frequent online contact in earlier weeks predicted more frequent face-to-face contacts in later weeks. As such, this work provides relevant insights into how individuals manage the impact of restrictions on their social lives

Lockdown Lives: A Longitudinal Study of Inter-Relationships Among Feelings of Loneliness, Social Contacts, and Solidarity During the COVID-19 Lockdown in Early 2020

We examine how social contacts and feelings of solidarity shape experiences of loneliness during the COVID-19 lockdown in early 2020. From the PsyCorona database, we obtained longitudinal data from 23 countries, collected between March and May 2020. The results demonstrated that although online contacts help to reduce feelings of loneliness, people who feel more lonely are less likely to use that strategy. Solidarity played only a small role in shaping feelings of loneliness during lockdown. Thus, it seems we must look beyond the current focus on online contact and solidarity to help people address feelings of loneliness during lockdown. Finally, online contacts did not function as a substitute for face-to-face contacts outside the home—in fact, more frequent online contact in earlier weeks predicted more frequent face-to-face contacts in later weeks. As such, this work provides relevant insights into how individuals manage the impact of restrictions on their social lives. © 2021 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc

Intentions to be vaccinated against COVID-19: the role of prosociality and conspiracy beliefs across 20 countries

Understanding the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine uptake is important to inform policy decisions and plan vaccination campaigns. The aims of this research were to: (1) explore the individual- and country-level determinants of intentions to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, and (2) examine worldwide variation in vaccination intentions. This cross-sectional online survey was conducted during the first wave of the pandemic, involving 6697 respondents across 20 countries. Results showed that 72.9% of participants reported positive intentions to be vaccinated against COVID-19, whereas 16.8% were undecided, and 10.3% reported they would not be vaccinated. At the individual level, prosociality was a significant positive predictor of vaccination intentions, whereas generic beliefs in conspiracy theories and religiosity were negative predictors. Country-level determinants, including cultural dimensions of individualism/collectivism and power distance, were not significant predictors of vaccination intentions. Altogether, this study identifies individual-level predictors that are common across multiple countries, provides further evidence on the importance of combating conspiracy theories, involving religious institutions in vaccination campaigns, and stimulating prosocial motives to encourage vaccine uptake

Predictors of adherence to public health behaviors for fighting COVID-19 derived from longitudinal data

The present paper examines longitudinally how subjective perceptions about COVID-19, one’s community, and the government predict adherence to public health measures to reduce the spread of the virus. Using an international survey (N = 3040), we test how infection risk perception, trust in the governmental response and communications about COVID-19, conspiracy beliefs, social norms on distancing, tightness of culture, and community punishment predict various containment-related attitudes and behavior. Autoregressive analyses indicate that, at the personal level, personal hygiene behavior was predicted by personal infection risk perception. At social level, social distancing behaviors such as abstaining from face-to-face contact were predicted by perceived social norms. Support for behavioral mandates was predicted by confidence in the government and cultural tightness, whereas support for anti-lockdown protests was predicted by (lower) perceived clarity of communication about the virus. Results are discussed in light of policy implications and creating effective interventions. © 2022, The Author(s)

Intentions to be Vaccinated Against COVID-19: The Role of Prosociality and Conspiracy Beliefs across 20 Countries

Understanding the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine uptake is important to inform policy decisions and plan vaccination campaigns. The aims of this research were to: (1) explore the individual- and country-level determinants of intentions to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, and (2) examine worldwide variation in vaccination intentions. This cross-sectional online survey was conducted during the first wave of the pandemic, involving 6697 respondents across 20 countries. Results showed that 72.9% of participants reported positive intentions to be vaccinated against COVID-19, whereas 16.8% were undecided, and 10.3% reported they would not be vaccinated. At the individual level, prosociality was a significant positive predictor of vaccination intentions, whereas generic beliefs in conspiracy theories and religiosity were negative predictors. Country-level determinants, including cultural dimensions of individualism/collectivism and power distance, were not significant predictors of vaccination intentions. Altogether, this study identifies individual-level predictors that are common across multiple countries, provides further evidence on the importance of combating conspiracy theories, involving religious institutions in vaccination campaigns, and stimulating prosocial motives to encourage vaccine uptake. © 2022 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

Predictors of adherence to public health behaviors for fighting COVID-19 derived from longitudinal data

The present paper examines longitudinally how subjective perceptions about COVID-19, one’s community, and the government predict adherence to public health measures to reduce the spread of the virus. Using an international survey (N = 3040), we test how infection risk perception, trust in the governmental response and communications about COVID-19, conspiracy beliefs, social norms on distancing, tightness of culture, and community punishment predict various containment-related attitudes and behavior. Autoregressive analyses indicate that, at the personal level, personal hygiene behavior was predicted by personal infection risk perception. At social level, social distancing behaviors such as abstaining from face-to-face contact were predicted by perceived social norms. Support for behavioral mandates was predicted by confidence in the government and cultural tightness, whereas support for anti-lockdown protests was predicted by (lower) perceived clarity of communication about the virus. Results are discussed in light of policy implications and creating effective interventions

Lockdown Lives: A Longitudinal Study of Inter-Relationships Among Feelings of Loneliness, Social Contacts, and Solidarity During the COVID-19 Lockdown in Early 2020

101sinoneWe examine how social contacts and feelings of solidarity shape experiences of loneliness during the COVID-19 lockdown in early 2020. From the PsyCorona database, we obtained longitudinal data from 23 countries, collected between March and May 2020. The results demonstrated that although online contacts help to reduce feelings of loneliness, people who feel more lonely are less likely to use that strategy. Solidarity played only a small role in shaping feelings of loneliness during lockdown. Thus, it seems we must look beyond the current focus on online contact and solidarity to help people address feelings of loneliness during lockdown. Finally, online contacts did not function as a substitute for face-to-face contacts outside the home—in fact, more frequent online contact in earlier weeks predicted more frequent face-to-face contacts in later weeks. As such, this work provides relevant insights into how individuals manage the impact of restrictions on their social lives.nonevan Breen J.A.; Kutlaca M.; Koc Y.; Jeronimus B.F.; Reitsema A.M.; Jovanovic V.; Agostini M.; Belanger J.J.; Gutzkow B.; Kreienkamp J.; Abakoumkin G.; Khaiyom J.H.A.; Ahmedi V.; Akkas H.; Almenara C.A.; Atta M.; Bagci S.C.; Basel S.; Berisha Kida E.; Bernardo A.B.I.; Buttrick N.R.; Chobthamkit P.; Choi H.-S.; Cristea M.; Csaba S.; Damnjanovic K.; Danyliuk I.; Dash A.; Di Santo D.; Douglas K.M.; Enea V.; Faller D.G.; Fitzsimons G.; Gheorghiu A.; Gomez A.; Hamaidia A.; Han Q.; Helmy M.; Hudiyana J.; Jiang D.-Y.; Kamenov Z.; Kende A.; Keng S.-L.; Kieu T.T.T.; Kovyazina K.; Kozytska I.; Krause J.; Kruglanski A.W.; Kurapov A.; Lantos N.A.; Lemay E.P.; Lesmana C.B.J.; Louis W.R.; Lueders A.; Malik N.I.; Martinez A.; McCabe K.; Mehulic J.; Milla M.N.; Mohammed I.; Molinario E.; Moyano M.; Muhammad H.; Mula S.; Muluk H.; Myroniuk S.; Najafi R.; Nisa C.F.; Nyul B.; O'Keefe P.A.; Olivas Osuna J.J.; Osin E.N.; Park J.; Pica G.; Pierro A.; Rees J.; Resta E.; Rullo M.; Ryan M.K.; Samekin A.; Santtila P.; Sasin E.; Schumpe B.M.; Selim H.A.; Stanton M.V.; Sultana S.; Sutton R.M.; Tseliou E.; Utsugi A.; van Lissa C.J.; van Veen K.; vanDellen M.R.; Vazquez A.; Wollast R.; Wai-Lan Yeung V.; Zand S.; Zezelj I.L.; Zheng B.; Zick A.; Zuniga C.; Leander N.P.van Breen, J. A.; Kutlaca, M.; Koc, Y.; Jeronimus, B. F.; Reitsema, A. M.; Jovanovic, V.; Agostini, M.; Belanger, J. J.; Gutzkow, B.; Kreienkamp, J.; Abakoumkin, G.; Khaiyom, J. H. A.; Ahmedi, V.; Akkas, H.; Almenara, C. A.; Atta, M.; Bagci, S. C.; Basel, S.; Berisha Kida, E.; Bernardo, A. B. I.; Buttrick, N. R.; Chobthamkit, P.; Choi, H. -S.; Cristea, M.; Csaba, S.; Damnjanovic, K.; Danyliuk, I.; Dash, A.; Di Santo, D.; Douglas, K. M.; Enea, V.; Faller, D. G.; Fitzsimons, G.; Gheorghiu, A.; Gomez, A.; Hamaidia, A.; Han, Q.; Helmy, M.; Hudiyana, J.; Jiang, D. -Y.; Kamenov, Z.; Kende, A.; Keng, S. -L.; Kieu, T. T. T.; Kovyazina, K.; Kozytska, I.; Krause, J.; Kruglanski, A. W.; Kurapov, A.; Lantos, N. A.; Lemay, E. P.; Lesmana, C. B. J.; Louis, W. R.; Lueders, A.; Malik, N. I.; Martinez, A.; Mccabe, K.; Mehulic, J.; Milla, M. N.; Mohammed, I.; Molinario, E.; Moyano, M.; Muhammad, H.; Mula, S.; Muluk, H.; Myroniuk, S.; Najafi, R.; Nisa, C. F.; Nyul, B.; O'Keefe, P. A.; Olivas Osuna, J. J.; Osin, E. N.; Park, J.; Pica, G.; Pierro, A.; Rees, J.; Resta, E.; Rullo, M.; Ryan, M. K.; Samekin, A.; Santtila, P.; Sasin, E.; Schumpe, B. M.; Selim, H. A.; Stanton, M. V.; Sultana, S.; Sutton, R. M.; Tseliou, E.; Utsugi, A.; van Lissa, C. J.; van Veen, K.; Vandellen, M. R.; Vazquez, A.; Wollast, R.; Wai-Lan Yeung, V.; Zand, S.; Zezelj, I. L.; Zheng, B.; Zick, A.; Zuniga, C.; Leander, N. P