Forecasting Inflation in Norway Using Machine Learning

This thesis investigates the efficacy of machine learning (ML) models, such as Random Forest and Long-short-term memory (LSTM), in forecasting post-Covid inflation trends in Norway. The research demonstrates that LSTM models outperform traditional benchmark models and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model within a 12-month forecast horizon, focusing on the sudden surge in inflation following the pandemic. The findings are constrained to the specific economic conditions of the post-Covid period in Norway, with no testing performed under other economic circumstances. This thesis contributes to the understanding of ML’s potential in economic forecasting and suggests pathways for future research to overcome its limitations and explore new methodologies in the field of economic analysis

Anxiety and depression in association with morbid obesity: changes with improved physical health after duodenal switch

Background Patients with morbid obesity have an increased risk for anxiety and depression. The "duodenal switch" is perhaps the most effective obesity surgery procedure for inducing weight loss. However, to our knowledge, data on symptoms of anxiety and depression after the duodenal switch are lacking. Furthermore, it has been hypothesized that self-reported physical health is the major predictor of symptoms of depression in patients with morbid obesity. We therefore investigated the symptoms of anxiety and depression before and after the duodenal switch procedure and whether post-operative changes in self-reported physical health were predictive of changes in these symptoms. Methods Data were assessed before surgery (n = 50), and one (n = 47) and two (n = 44) years afterwards. Symptoms of anxiety and depression were assessed by the "Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale", and self-reported physical health was assessed by the "Short-Form 36" questionnaire. Linear mixed effect models were used to investigate changes in the symptoms of anxiety and depression. Correlation and linear multiple regression analyses were used to study whether changes in self-reported physical health were predictive of post-operative changes in the symptoms of anxiety and depression. Results The symptom burden of anxiety and depression were high before surgery but were normalized one and two years afterwards (P < 0.001). The degree of improvement in self-reported physical health was associated with statistically significant reductions in the symptoms of anxiety (P = 0.003) and depression (P = 0.004). Conclusions The novelty of this study is the large and sustained reductions in the symptoms of anxiety and depression after the duodenal switch procedure, and that these changes were closely associated with improvements in self-reported physical health

The study protocol of the Norwegian randomized controlled trial of electroconvulsive therapy in treatment resistant depression in bipolar disorder

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The treatment of depressive phases of bipolar disorder is challenging. The effects of the commonly used antidepressants in bipolar depression are questionable. Electroconvulsive therapy is generally considered to be the most effective treatment even if there are no randomized controlled trials of electroconvulsive therapy in bipolar depression. The safety of electroconvulsive therapy is well documented, but there are some controversies as to the cognitive side effects. The aim of this study is to compare the effects and side effects of electroconvulsive therapy to pharmacological treatment in treatment resistant bipolar depression. Cognitive changes and quality of life during the treatment will be assessed.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>A prospective, randomised controlled, multi-centre six- week acute treatment trial with seven clinical assessments. Follow up visit at 26 weeks or until remission (max 52 weeks). A neuropsychological test battery designed to be sensitive to changes in cognitive function will be used. Setting: Nine study centres across Norway, all acute psychiatric departments. Sample: n = 132 patients, aged 18 and over, who fulfil criteria for treatment resistant depression in bipolar disorder, Montgomery Åsberg Depression Rating Scale Score of at least 25 at baseline. Intervention: Intervention group: 3 sessions per week for up to 6 weeks, total up to 18 sessions. Control group: algorithm-based pharmacological treatment as usual.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study is the first randomized controlled trial that aims to investigate whether electroconvulsive therapy is better than pharmacological treatment as usual in treatment resistant bipolar depression. Possible long lasting cognitive side effects will be evaluated. The study is investigator initiated, without support from industry.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>NCT00664976</p

Fysisk aktivitet og selvoppfatning hos barn med fedme og normalvektige barn.

Objective: The aim of the present study was to compare self-perception and level of physical activity in children with obesity and normalweight children, and to clarify whether different domains of self-perception are correlated to physical activity, independent of the child’s BMI. Previous research has shown a positive correlation between physical activity and some domains of self-perception related to perception of the body and physical competence, but not global self-perception. Method: Children with obesity (N=38) and normalweight children (N=38) wore an accelerometer for 7 days. The additional measures applied were “Self- Perception Profile for Children”, BMI and waist circumference. Results: Children with obesity had lower self-perception scores on all domains compared with the normalweight children. There was no significant difference on physical activity and no significant correlation between physical activity and self-perception when BMI was controlled for. There was no correlation between physical activity and BMI, but a significant correlation between BMI and waist circumference. Conclusion: The results emphasize the importance of themes related to self-perception when working with children with obesity. It’s also important to arrange physical activity that foster the child’s sense of achievement, and adjust the activity to the child’s individual psychological needs and physical limitations. Waist-circumference measures seems to be more strongly correlated to level of physical activity than BMI and might be a motivating and change sensitive instrument in treatment of children with obesity that includes enhanced level of physical activity

Efficiency in the Nordic futures power market : an empirical study of the Nordic futures power market

In this thesis, we investigate if the Nordic futures power market is efficient. To answer this question, we will perform cointegration tests, test the unbiasedness hypothesis and check the causal relationships between the spot price and futures prices with 1- to 6-months to maturity. We use daily observations from the period between 01.10.2015 and 15.09.2020. We have used price data of the spot price from Nord Pool, price data for the futures contracts from Bloomberg and volume data from Nasdaq OMX in our thesis. We use cointegration techniques because the data is non-stationary. Cointegration is tested to see if there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the spot and the futures prices. Our results suggest that the spot and the futures prices have a cointegration relationship for five out of six contract lengths. To further investigate these relationships, we perform a causality test to see which of the time series leads the other. The futures contracts lead the spot price for most of the contract lengths, which indicates that the futures market is having a price discovery function on the spot price. Having at least one cointegration relationship is a requirement for testing the unbiasedness hypothesis. The unbiasedness hypothesis test if the futures prices are the best predictor of the forthcoming spot price, i.e., if the market is efficient. The hypotheses only hold for the 1-month futures contract length, supporting efficiency. For the longer to maturity futures contracts, the futures market is inefficient, and the potential of observing a risk premium in the market increases. Our findings are consistent with other fundamental research on the electricity futures market. Differences from other studies could be due to a different data set. Our research is done on futures and not DS futures, which may give some different results than previous studies. Nasdaq OMX issued the futures we apply in late 2015, and to our knowledge, there has not been any similar research on these futures contracts before.nhhma

Taylor rules and monetary policy in the Eurozone

In this thesis, we analyse the monetary policy in the Eurozone since the origin of the euro. The aim of the thesis is to assess whether, and to what extent, the common monetary policy of the Eurozone has contributed to stabilization of business cycles within the various economies. By utilizing alternative versions of the Taylor rule, we have calculated several Taylor-rates for each of the member states in the Eurozone, which in turn are compared to the actual interest rate path from the European Central Bank (ECB). Deviation between the Taylorrates and the actual policy rate is used to analyse the suitability of the common monetary policy for each member country. The thesis also discusses the notion of the Eurozone constituting a good approximation to an optimum currency area by comparing the deviations between the Taylor-rates and the policy rate with developments in other macro-variables. A key variable that has implications for our results was the neutral real rate of interest. When assuming a constant neutral rate, we find that in the first decade of the euro the policy rate set by the ECB was much closer to the suggested rates of the core-countries than for the peripheral-countries. The Taylor rule suggests that the monetary policy was too accommodative for the peripheral-countries during this period. In the period after the financial crisis it seems that the monetary policy was too strict for the peripheral-countries, whilst being too accommodative for the core-countries. Estimations of the neutral real rate using the Laubach-Williams - model show that an assumed value of the neutral real rate equal to 2% was a fairly good assumption for the corecountries, such as Germany, France, Belgium, Netherland and Austria. However, in the peripheral-countries the fluctuations of the neutral real rate have been far greater over the entire period. This adds to the notion that the perceived stability of the Eurozone during some time intervals has mainly been a feature of the core countries. We also calculate Taylor-rates using country-specific estimates of the neutral real rate. The main features of the country-specific Taylor-rates remain unchanged when compared to the Taylor-rates which assumed a common constant neutral real rate.nhhma

Case Regionalt Kompetanseforum Hordaland - Hvordan fyller Hordaland fylkeskommune samfunnsutviklerrollen?

Kompetansepolitikken har det siste tiåret kommet høyt på den politiske agendaen og både nasjonale, regionale og lokale myndigheter forsøker å finne frem til løsninger og aktiviteter som kan gi noen svar om fremtidens arbeidsmarked. I 2014 ble det tatt initiativ fra Kommunal- og moderniseringsdepartementet og Kunnskapsdepartementet for å utvikle og implementere nye politiske tanker og grep i hele det norske forvaltningssystemet. Erkjennelsen av kompetansepolitikken som et uregerlig problem ble gjort tidlig og har i tiden etter 2014 blitt gjort i stadig flere deler av samfunnet. Regjeringen vedtok sin Nasjonale Kompetansestrategi i 2017, samtidig utarbeidet og vedtok Hordaland fylkeskommune sin Regionale plan for kompetanse og arbeidskraft. Hordaland fylkeskommune opprettet Kompetanseforum Hordaland som et nettverk som skulle utvikle og implementere politikken i fylket. Jeg har i denne oppgaven brukt empiri fra ulike dokumenter nasjonalt og regionalt, samt dybdeintervjuer, for å finne ut om Kompetanseforum Hordaland fungerte etter intensjonen og hvordan det henger sammen med samfunnsutviklerrollen til Hordaland fylkeskommune. Jeg har funnet en rekke holdepunkt for at forumet svarte ut nasjonale og regionale forventinger til regional samordning og koordinering. Vedtaket av den regionale planen for kompetanse og arbeidskraft som opptakt til etableringen av forumet får støtte i teorien som et godt grep for å sikre legitimitet og gi forumet et funksjonelt mandat. Organiseringen av forumet med tanke på antall medlemmer, hvilke medlemmer, administrativ organisering og arbeidsform finner jeg også å ha gode forutsetninger for et effektivt og resultatorientert nettverk. Jeg hadde forventet å finne at organiseringen av nettverket ville ha mest betydning for hvordan forumet ble oppfattet og hvordan det arbeidet. Jeg forventet at dersom alle relevante aktører var avstemt mot ønsket og håndterbar størrelse, ville det handle om tilrettelegging og sosiale faktorer. Denne forventingen blir innfridd i analysen, men jeg gjør også en annen erkjennelse: viktigheten av rett ledelsesstrategi og forståelsen av hvor viktig ledelsen er for effektiviteten i nettverket var større enn jeg hadde forventet. Min vurdering er at Hordaland fylkeskommune er på rett spor, denne arbeidsformen gir gode resultater. Utfordringen fremover blir å etablere, vedlikeholde og utvikle ledelses-, relasjons- og nettverkskompetanse internt i fylkeskommunen siden denne kompetansen er sentral for å fylle rollen som samfunnsutvikler