A response to “Likelihood ratio as weight of evidence: a closer look” by Lund and Iyer

Recently, Lund and Iyer (L&I) raised an argument regarding the use of likelihood ratios in court. In our view, their argument is based on a lack of understanding of the paradigm. L&I argue that the decision maker should not accept the expert’s likelihood ratio without further consideration. This is agreed by all parties. In normal practice, there is often considerable and proper exploration in court of the basis for any probabilistic statement. We conclude that L&I argue against a practice that does not exist and which no one advocates. Further we conclude that the most informative summary of evidential weight is the likelihood ratio. We state that this is the summary that should be presented to a court in every scientific assessment of evidential weight with supporting information about how it was constructed and on what it was based

Volcanic Hazard Assessment for an Eruption Hiatus, or Post-eruption Unrest Context: Modeling Continued Dome Collapse Hazards for Soufrière Hills Volcano

Effective volcanic hazard management in regions where populations live in close proximity to persistent volcanic activity involves understanding the dynamic nature of hazards, and associated risk. Emphasis until now has been placed on identification and forecasting of the escalation phase of activity, in order to provide adequate warning of what might be to come. However, understanding eruption hiatus and post-eruption unrest hazards, or how to quantify residual hazard after the end of an eruption, is also important and often key to timely post-eruption recovery. Unfortunately, in many cases when the level of activity lessens, the hazards, although reduced, do not necessarily cease altogether. This is due to both the imprecise nature of determination of the “end” of an eruptive phase as well as to the possibility that post-eruption hazardous processes may continue to occur. An example of the latter is continued dome collapse hazard from lava domes which have ceased to grow, or sector collapse of parts of volcanic edifices, including lava dome complexes. We present a new probabilistic model for forecasting pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) from lava dome collapse that takes into account the heavy-tailed distribution of the lengths of eruptive phases, the periods of quiescence, and the forecast window of interest. In the hazard analysis, we also consider probabilistic scenario models describing the flow’s volume and initial direction. Further, with the use of statistical emulators, we combine these models with physics-based simulations of PDCs at Soufrière Hills Volcano to produce a series of probabilistic hazard maps for flow inundation over 5, 10, and 20 year periods. The development and application of this assessment approach is the first of its kind for the quantification of periods of diminished volcanic activity. As such, it offers evidence-based guidance for dome collapse hazards that can be used to inform decision-making around provisions of access and reoccupation in areas around volcanoes that are becoming less active over time

Initial Helioseismic Observations by Hinode/SOT

Results from initial helioseismic observations by Solar Optical Telescope onboard Hinode are reported. It has been demonstrated that intensity oscillation data from Broadband Filter Imager can be used for various helioseismic analyses. The k-omega power spectra, as well as corresponding time-distance cross-correlation function that promises high-resolution time-distance analysis below 6-Mm travelling distance, were obtained for G-band and CaII-H data. Subsurface supergranular patterns have been observed from our first time-distance analysis. The results show that the solar oscillation spectrum is extended to much higher frequencies and wavenumbers, and the time-distance diagram is extended to much shorter travel distances and times than they were observed before, thus revealing great potential for high-resolution helioseismic observations from Hinode.Comment: 6 pages, accepted for publication in PAS

Kentucky Labor Supply and Demand Surveys

Excerpt from the executive summary: The Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Kentucky (CBER), along with its partners, the Survey Research Center at the University of Kentucky (UK-SRC), the Survey Research Center in the Urban Studies Institute at the University of Louisville (UL-SRC), and the Department of Economics at the University of Louisville, is pleased to present this final report on the findings of the Kentucky labor supply and demand surveys sponsored by the Kentucky Cabinet for Workforce Development. The two universities have put together a consortium including some of the best scholars in the region in the areas of labor economics, local economic development, and survey design and administration

Cataclysmic Variables from SDSS II. The Second Year

The first full year of operation following the commissioning year of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey has revealed a wide variety of newly discovered cataclysmic variables. We show the SDSS spectra of forty-two cataclysmic variables observed in 2002, of which thirty-five are new classifications, four are known dwarf novae (CT Hya, RZ Leo, T Leo and BZ UMa), one is a known CV identified from a previous quasar survey (Aqr1) and two are known ROSAT or FIRST discovered CVs (RX J09445+0357, FIRST J102347.6+003841). The SDSS positions, colors and spectra of all forty-two systems are presented. In addition, the results of follow-up studies of several of these objects identify the orbital periods, velocity curves and polarization that provide the system geometry and accretion properties. While most of the SDSS discovered systems are faint (>18th mag) with low accretion rates (as implied from their spectral characteristics), there are also a few bright objects which may have escaped previous surveys due to changes in the mass transfer rate.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal, Vol. 126, Sep. 2003, 44 pages, 25 figures (now with adjacent captions), AASTeX v5.

Phobos LIFE (Living Interplanetary Flight Experiment)

The Planetary Society's Phobos Living Interplanetary Flight Experiment (Phobos LIFE) flew in the sample return capsule of the Russian Federal Space Agency's Phobos Grunt mission and was to have been a test of one aspect of the hypothesis that life can move between nearby planets within ejected rocks. Although the Phobos Grunt mission failed, we present here the scientific and engineering design and motivation of the Phobos LIFE experiment to assist with the scientific and engineering design of similar future experiments. Phobos LIFE flew selected organisms in a simulated meteoroid. The 34-month voyage would have been the first such test to occur in the high-radiation environment outside the protection of Earth's magnetosphere for more than a few days. The patented Phobos LIFE “biomodule” is an 88 g cylinder consisting of a titanium outer shell, several types of redundant seals, and 31 individual Delrin sample containers. Phobos LIFE contained 10 different organisms, representing all three domains of life, and one soil sample. The organisms are all very well characterized, most with sequenced genomes. Most are extremophiles, and most have flown in low Earth orbit. Upon return from space, the health and characteristics of organisms were to have been compared with controls that remained on Earth and have not yet been opened

A comprehensive study of GRB 070125, a most energetic gamma ray burst

We present a comprehensive multiwavelength analysis of the bright, long duration gamma-ray burst GRB 070125, comprised of observations in $\gamma$-ray, X-ray, optical, millimeter and centimeter wavebands. Simultaneous fits to the optical and X-ray light curves favor a break on day 3.78, which we interpret as the jet break from a collimated outflow. Independent fits to optical and X-ray bands give similar results in the optical bands but shift the jet break to around day 10 in the X-ray light curve. We show that for the physical parameters derived for GRB 070125, inverse Compton scattering effects are important throughout the afterglow evolution. While inverse Compton scattering does not affect radio and optical bands, it may be a promising candidate to delay the jet break in the X-ray band. Radio light curves show rapid flux variations, which are interpreted as due to interstellar scintillation, and are used to derive an upper limit of $2.4 \times 10^{17}$ cm on the radius of the fireball in the lateral expansion phase of the jet. Radio light curves and spectra suggest a high synchrotron self absorption frequency indicative of the afterglow shock wave moving in a dense medium. Our broadband modeling favors a constant density profile for the circumburst medium over a wind-like profile ($R^{-2}$). However, keeping in mind the uncertainty of the parameters, it is difficult to unambiguously distinguish between the two density profiles. Our broadband fits suggest that \event is a burst with high radiative efficiency ($> 60$).Comment: 50 pages, 33 figures, sty file included, Appeared in 20 Aug 2008 edition of Astrophysical Journa

Primordialists and Constructionists: a typology of theories of religion

This article adopts categories from nationalism theory to classify theories of religion. Primordialist explanations are grounded in evolutionary psychology and emphasize the innate human demand for religion. Primordialists predict that religion does not decline in the modern era but will endure in perpetuity. Constructionist theories argue that religious demand is a human construct. Modernity initially energizes religion, but subsequently undermines it. Unpacking these ideal types is necessary in order to describe actual theorists of religion. Three distinctions within primordialism and constructionism are relevant. Namely those distinguishing: a) materialist from symbolist forms of constructionism; b) theories of origins from those pertaining to the reproduction of religion; and c) within reproduction, between theories of religious persistence and secularization. This typology helps to make sense of theories of religion by classifying them on the basis of their causal mechanisms, chronology and effects. In so doing, it opens up new sightlines for theory and research

Bridging Alone: Religious Conservatism, Marital Homogamy, and Voluntary Association Membership

This study characterizes social insularity of religiously conservative American married couples by examining patterns of voluntary associationmembership. Constructing a dataset of 3938 marital dyads from the second wave of the National Survey of Families and Households, the author investigates whether conservative religious homogamy encourages membership in religious voluntary groups and discourages membership in secular voluntary groups. Results indicate that couples’ shared affiliation with conservative denominations, paired with beliefs in biblical authority and inerrancy, increases the likelihood of religious group membership for husbands and wives and reduces the likelihood of secular group membership for wives, but not for husbands. The social insularity of conservative religious groups appears to be reinforced by homogamy—particularly by wives who share faith with husbands

Emergence of a Helical Flux Rope Under an Active Region Prominence

Continuous observations were obtained of active region 10953 with the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) on board the \emph{Hinode} satellite during 2007 April 28 to May 9. A prominence was located over the polarity inversion line (PIL) in the south-east of the main sunspot. These observations provided us with a time series of vector magnetic fields on the photosphere under the prominence. We found four features: (1) The abutting opposite-polarity regions on the two sides along the PIL first grew laterally in size and then narrowed. (2) These abutting regions contained vertically-weak, but horizontally-strong magnetic fields. (3) The orientations of the horizontal magnetic fields along the PIL on the photosphere gradually changed with time from a normal-polarity configuration to a inverse-polarity one. (4) The horizontal-magnetic field region was blueshifted. These indicate that helical flux rope was emerging from below the photosphere into the corona along the PIL under the pre-existing prominence. We suggest that this supply of a helical magnetic flux into the corona is associated with evolution and maintenance of active-region prominences.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ Letter