Determinants of survival of people living with HIV/AIDS on antiretroviral therapy in Brazil 2006-2015

Background We compared AIDS-related mortality rates in people living with HIV (PLHIV) starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Brazil during 2006–2015 and examined associated risk factors . Methods Data on ART use in PLHIV and AIDS mortality in Brazil was analysed with piecewise constant exponential models. Mortality rates and hazard ratios were estimated for 0–6, 6–12, 13–24, 25–36 and > 36 months of ART use and adjusted for region, age, sex, baseline CD4 cell count and calendar year of ART initiation. An additional analysis restricted to those with data on risk group was also performed. Results 269,076 individuals were included in the analysis, 165,643 (62%) males and 103,433 (38%) females, with 1,783,305 person-years of follow-up time. 21,749 AIDS deaths were reported and 8898 deaths occurred in the first year of ART. The risk of death in the first six months decreased with early ART initiation; those starting treatment early with CD4 > 500 cells per μL had a hazard ratio of 0.06 (95% CI 0.05–0.07) compared with CD4 < 200 cells per μL. Older age, male sex, intravenous drug use and starting treatment in earlier calendar years were associated with higher mortality rates. People living in the North, Northeast and South of Brazil experienced significantly higher AIDS mortality rates than those in the Southeast (HR 1.44, [95% CI 1.35–1.54], 1.10 [1.05–1.16] and 1.22 [1.17–1.28] respectively). Conclusions Early treatment is likely to have contributed to the improved survival in PLHIV on ART, with the greatest benefits observed in women, younger age-groups and those living in the North

Evaluation of bias in HIV seroprevalence estimates from national household surveys

Submitted by Gilvan Almeida ([email protected]) on 2016-12-07T12:03:30Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license.txt: 1748 bytes, checksum: 8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33 (MD5) FieldEvaluation.pdf: 177639 bytes, checksum: 417e97b6da6816379d956c2c88c54fef (MD5)Rejected by Éder Freyre ([email protected]), reason: Refazer on 2017-02-14T16:35:23Z (GMT)Submitted by Gilvan Almeida ([email protected]) on 2019-02-06T16:28:18Z No. of bitstreams: 2 FieldEvaluation.pdf: 177639 bytes, checksum: 417e97b6da6816379d956c2c88c54fef (MD5) license.txt: 1748 bytes, checksum: 8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Regiane Silva ([email protected]) on 2019-08-26T13:12:58Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 FieldEvaluation.pdf: 177639 bytes, checksum: 417e97b6da6816379d956c2c88c54fef (MD5) license.txt: 1748 bytes, checksum: 8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33 (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2019-08-26T13:12:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 FieldEvaluation.pdf: 177639 bytes, checksum: 417e97b6da6816379d956c2c88c54fef (MD5) license.txt: 1748 bytes, checksum: 8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008Fundação Alfredo da Matta. Manaus, AM, Brasil.London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. London, UK.Fundação Alfredo da Matta. Manaus, AM, Brasil.Fundação Alfredo da Matta. Manaus, AM, Brasil.Fundação Alfredo da Matta. Manaus, AM, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.World Health Organization. Geneva, Switzerland.OBJECTIVES: To assess the performance, usefulness and cost of a rapid treponemal antibody assay (VisiTect Syphilis) to detect syphilis in high risk populations. METHODS: People who attended STI clinics in Manaus, Brazil, were screened for syphilis using the fluorescent treponemal antibody absorption (FTA-Abs) test and a non-treponemal test (Venereal Diseases Research Laboratory (VDRL)), and for HIV. Finger prick blood samples were tested with VisiTect Syphilis. The rapid test was evaluated against the reference FTA-Abs and for its usefulness in detecting active syphilis (FTA-Abs and VDRL positive). Operational performance was assessed through providers' and patients' interviews. An economic evaluation was conducted from the provider's perspective. RESULTS: 510 patients (60% men) were enrolled, of whom 13 (2.5%) were HIV-1 seropositive. Syphilis prevalence (FTA-Abs) was 18% and active syphilis prevalence was 7.5%. 11% (57/506) of samples were positive by VisiTect. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of VisiTect Syphilis were 57% (95% CI 45.8 to 66.7), 99% (95% CI 97.0 to 99.6), 91% (95% CI 80.0 to 96.7) and 91% (95% CI 88.0 to 93.5), respectively. VisiTect Syphilis identified 79% (30/38) of active syphilis cases. The cost per case of syphilis was $16.8 for VDRL,$33.2 for low cost and $56.3 for high cost VisiTect Syphilis; the cost per case of active syphilis was$21.3, $57.5 and$97.6, respectively. Patients identified finger prick pain and preference for venous blood collection as minor barriers to test use. CONCLUSION: VisiTect Syphilis had low sensitivity in field use and was less cost effective than conventional VDRL. However, rapid and correct identification of a high proportion of active syphilis cases combined with operational characteristics suggest a role in high risk populations

Modeling the epidemiological impact of the UNAIDS 2025 targets to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030

Background: UNAIDS has established new program targets for 2025 to achieve the goal of eliminating AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. This study reports on efforts to use mathematical models to estimate the impact of achieving those targets. // Methods and findings: We simulated the impact of achieving the targets at country level using the Goals model, a mathematical simulation model of HIV epidemic dynamics that includes the impact of prevention and treatment interventions. For 77 high-burden countries, we fit the model to surveillance and survey data for 1970 to 2020 and then projected the impact of achieving the targets for the period 2019 to 2030. Results from these 77 countries were extrapolated to produce estimates for 96 others. Goals model results were checked by comparing against projections done with the Optima HIV model and the AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) for selected countries. We included estimates of the impact of societal enablers (access to justice and law reform, stigma and discrimination elimination, and gender equality) and the impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Results show that achieving the 2025 targets would reduce new annual infections by 83% (71% to 86% across regions) and AIDS-related deaths by 78% (67% to 81% across regions) by 2025 compared to 2010. Lack of progress on societal enablers could endanger these achievements and result in as many as 2.6 million (44%) cumulative additional new HIV infections and 440,000 (54%) more AIDS-related deaths between 2020 and 2030 compared to full achievement of all targets. COVID-19–related disruptions could increase new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 10% in the next 2 years, but targets could still be achieved by 2025. Study limitations include the reliance on self-reports for most data on behaviors, the use of intervention effect sizes from published studies that may overstate intervention impacts outside of controlled study settings, and the use of proxy countries to estimate the impact in countries with fewer than 4,000 annual HIV infections. // Conclusions: The new targets for 2025 build on the progress made since 2010 and represent ambitious short-term goals. Achieving these targets would bring us close to the goals of reducing new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% between 2010 and 2030. By 2025, global new infections and AIDS deaths would drop to 4.4 and 3.9 per 100,000 population, and the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) would be declining. There would be 32 million people on treatment, and they would need continuing support for their lifetime. Incidence for the total global population would be below 0.15% everywhere. The number of PLHIV would start declining by 2023

HIV prevalence among female sex workers, drug users and men who have sex with men in Brazil: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Brazilian response towards AIDS epidemic is well known, but the absence of a systematic review of vulnerable populations ─ men who have sex with men (MSM), female sex workers (FSW), and drug users (DU) remains a main gap in the available literature. Our goal was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies assessing HIV prevalence among MSM, FSW and DU, calculating a combined pooled prevalence and summarizing factors associated the pooled prevalence for each group.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Nine electronic databases (MEDLINE via PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane CENTRAL, AIDSLINE, AMED, CINAHL, TOXNET, SciELO, and ISI-Web of Science) were searched for peer-reviewed papers published in English, French, Spanish or Portuguese, from 1999 to 2009. To be included in the review, studies had to measure HIV prevalence and/or incidence as the primary outcome among at least one specific population under analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The studies targeting the three populations analyzed mostly young participants aged 30 years or less. Among FSW, eight studies were selected (3,625 participants), consistently identifying higher condom use with sexual clients than with occasional and stable partners. The combined HIV prevalence for FSW was 6.2 (95% CI: 4.4-8.3). Ten studies targeting MSM were identified (6,475 participants). Unprotected anal intercourse was commonly reported on those studies, but with great variability according to the nature of the relationship - stable vs. occasional sex partners - and sexual practice - receptive vs. insertive anal sex. Pooled HIV prevalence for MSM was 13.6 (95% CI: 8.2-20.2). Twenty nine studies targeting DU were identified (13,063 participants). Those studies consistently identified injection drug use and syringe/needle sharing as key predictors of HIV-infection, as well as engagement in sex work and male-to-male sex. The combined HIV prevalence across studies targeting DU was 23.1 (95% CI: 16.7-30.2).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>FSW, MSM and DU from Brazil have a much risk of acquiring HIV infection compared to the general population, among which HIV prevalence has been relatively low (~0.6%). Those vulnerable populations should be targeted by focused prevention strategies that provide accurate information, counseling and testing, as well as concrete means to foster behavior change (e.g. access to condoms, drug abuse treatment, and clean syringes in the case of active injecting drug users), tailored to gender and culture-specific needs. Programs that provide these services need to be implemented on public health services throughout the country, in order to decrease the vulnerability of those populations to HIV infection.</p

Measuring underreporting and under-ascertainment in infectious disease datasets: a comparison of methods

Gibbons CL, Mangen M-JJ, Plaß D, et al. Measuring underreporting and under-ascertainment in infectious disease datasets: a comparison of methods. BMC Public Health. 2014;14(1): 147.Background: Efficient and reliable surveillance and notification systems are vital for monitoring public health and disease outbreaks. However, most surveillance and notification systems are affected by a degree of underestimation (UE) and therefore uncertainty surrounds the 'true' incidence of disease affecting morbidity and mortality rates. Surveillance systems fail to capture cases at two distinct levels of the surveillance pyramid: from the community since not all cases seek healthcare (under-ascertainment), and at the healthcare-level, representing a failure to adequately report symptomatic cases that have sought medical advice (underreporting). There are several methods to estimate the extent of under-ascertainment and underreporting. Methods: Within the context of the ECDC-funded Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE)-project, an extensive literature review was conducted to identify studies that estimate ascertainment or reporting rates for salmonellosis and campylobacteriosis in European Union Member States (MS) plus European Free Trade Area (EFTA) countries Iceland, Norway and Switzerland and four other OECD countries (USA, Canada, Australia and Japan). Multiplication factors (MFs), a measure of the magnitude of underestimation, were taken directly from the literature or derived (where the proportion of underestimated, under-ascertained, or underreported cases was known) and compared for the two pathogens. Results: MFs varied between and within diseases and countries, representing a need to carefully select the most appropriate MFs and methods for calculating them. The most appropriate MFs are often disease-,country-, age-, and sex-specific. Conclusions: When routine data are used to make decisions on resource allocation or to estimate epidemiological parameters in populations, it becomes important to understand when, where and to what extent these data represent the true picture of disease, and in some instances (such as priority setting) it is necessary to adjust for underestimation. MFs can be used to adjust notification and surveillance data to provide more realistic estimates of incidence