Short-Term Forecasting of GDP Using Large Monthly Datasets: A Pseudo Real-Time Forecast Evaluation Exercise

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of quarterly GDP growth. Amongst the latter, we consider small bridge equations and forecast equations in which the bridging between monthly and quarterly data is achieved through a regression on factors extracted from large monthly datasets. The forecasting exercise is performed in a simulated real-time context, which takes account of publication lags in the individual series. In general, we find that models that exploit monthly information outperform models that use purely quarterly data and, amongst the former, factor models perform best.Bridge models, Dynamic factor models, real-time data flow model

Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise.

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of quarterly GDP growth. Amongst the latter, we consider small bridge equations and forecast equations in which the bridging between monthly and quarterly data is achieved through a regression on factors extracted from large monthly datasets. The forecasting exercise is performed in a simulated real-time context, which takes account of publication lags in the individual series. In general, we find that models that exploit monthly information outperform models that use purely quarterly data and, amongst the former, factor models perform best.Bridge models ; Dynamic factor models ; real-time data flow.

Natural formation of chloro- and bromoacetone in salt lakes of Western Australia

Western Australia is a semi-/arid region known for saline lakes with a wide range of geochemical parameters (pH 2.5-7.1, Cl- 10-200 g L-1. This study reports on the haloacetones chloro- and bromoacetone in air over 6 salt lake shorelines. Significant emissions of chloroacetone (up to 0.2 µmol m-2 h-1) and bromoacetone (up to 1. 5 µmol m-2 h-1) were detected, and a photochemical box model was employed to evaluate the contribution of their atmospheric formation from the olefinic hydrocarbons propene and methacrolein in the gas phase. The measured concentrations could not explain the photochemical halogenation reaction, indicating a strong hitherto unknown source of haloacetones. Aqueous-phase reactions of haloacetones, investigated in the laboratory using humic acid in concentrated salt solutions, were identified as alternative formation pathway by liquid-phase reactions, acid catalyzed enolization of ketones, and subsequent halogenation. In order to verify this mechanism, we made measurements of the Henry's law constants, rate constants for hydrolysis and nucleophilic exchange with chloride, UV-spectra and quantum yields for the photolysis of bromoacetone and 1,1-dibromoacetone in the aqueous phase. We suggest that heterogeneous processes induced by humic substances in the quasi-liquid layer of the salt crust, particle surfaces and the lake water are the predominating pathways for the formation of the observed haloacetones

Persistence of dissolved organic matter explained by molecular changes during its passage through soil

Dissolved organic matter affects fundamental biogeochemical processes in the soil such as nutrient cycling and organic matter storage. The current paradigm is that processing of dissolved organic matter converges to recalcitrant molecules (those that resist degradation) of low molecular mass and high molecular diversity through biotic and abiotic processes. Here we demonstrate that the molecular composition and properties of dissolved organic matter continuously change during soil passage and propose that this reflects a continual shifting of its sources. Using ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, we studied the molecular changes of dissolved organic matter from the soil surface to 60 cm depth in 20 temperate grassland communities in soil type Eutric Fluvisol. Applying a semi-quantitative approach, we observed that plant-derived molecules were first broken down into molecules containing a large proportion of low-molecular-mass compounds. These low-molecular-mass compounds became less abundant during soil passage, whereas larger molecules, depleted in plant-related ligno-cellulosic structures, became more abundant. These findings indicate that the small plant-derived molecules were preferentially consumed by microorganisms and transformed into larger microbial-derived molecules. This suggests that dissolved organic matter is not intrinsically recalcitrant but instead persists in soil as a result of simultaneous consumption, transformation and formation

To pay or not to pay? Business owners’ tax morale:testing a neo-institutional framework in a transition environment

In order to understand how the environment influences business owner/managers’ attitudes towards tax morale, we build a theoretical model based on a neo-institutionalist framework. Our model combines three complementary perspectives on institutions—normative, cultural–cognitive and regulatory–instrumental. This enables a broader understanding of factors that influence business owner–managers’ attitudes towards tax evasion. We test the resulting hypotheses using regression analysis on survey data on business owner/managers in Latvia—a transition country, which has undergone massive institutional changes since it was part of the Soviet Union over 25 years ago. We find that legitimacy of the tax authorities and the government (normative dimension), feeling of belonging to the nation (cultural–cognitive dimension) and perceptions of the risk and severity of punishment (regulatory–instrumental dimension) are all associated with higher tax morale for business owners and managers

Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets - A pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise. NBB Working Papers. No. 133, 17 June 2008

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of quarterly GDP growth. Amongst the latter, we consider small bridge equations and forecast equations in which the bridging between monthly and quarterly data is achieved through a regression on factors extracted from large monthly datasets. The forecasting exercise is performed in a simulated real-time context, which takes account of publication lags in the individual series. In general, we find that models that exploit monthly information outperform models that use purely quarterly data and, amongst the former, factor models perform best

Pulsatile pulmonary perfusion during cardiopulmonary bypass reduces the pulmonary inflammatory response

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary dysfunction presumably linked to an inflammatory response is frequent after cardiac operations using cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) and pulmonary hypoperfusion. We previously demonstrated that active perfusion of the lungs during CPB reduces ischemic lung injury. We now hypothesized that avoiding ischemia of the lungs during CPB by active pulmonary perfusion would decrease pulmonary inflammatory response. METHODS: Pigs were randomized to a control group with CPB for 120 minutes, followed by 120 minutes of postbypass reperfusion, or to the study groups where animals underwent active pulmonary perfusion with pulsatile or nonpulsatile perfusion during CPB (n = 7 in each group). Activation of transcription factor activity (nuclear factor [NF]-kappaB and activating protein [AP]-1) was determined by electrophoretic mobility shift assay. Levels of proinflammatory protein expression (interleukin [IL]-1, IL-6, and tumor necrosis factor [TNF]-alpha) were quantified by enzyme-linked immunoabsorbent assay. Caspase-3 activity was measured using a fluorogenic assay. RESULTS: The activation of transcription factor AP-1 and NF-kappaB was reduced in the pulsatile pulmonary perfusion group. The caspase-3 activity and the expression of IL-1, IL-6, and TNF-alpha revealed a significant decrease in the pulsatile and nonpulsatile pulmonary perfusion groups. Animals of the pulsatile pulmonary perfusion group showed significantly reduced IL-6 expression and caspase-3 activity compared with the nonpulsatile pulmonary perfusion group. CONCLUSIONS: Active pulmonary perfusion reduces the inflammatory response and apoptosis in the lungs observed during conventional CPB. This effect is greatest when pulmonary perfusion is performed with pulsatility. The reduction in cytokine expression by pulsatile pulmonary perfusion might be mediated by AP-1 and NF-kappaB