Beyond ‘significance’:Principles and practice of the analysis of credibility

The inferential inadequacies of statistical significance testing are now widely recognized. There is, however, no consensus on how to move research into a ‘post p < 0.05’ era. We present a potential route forward via the Analysis of Credibility, a novel methodology that allows researchers to go beyond the simplistic dichotomy of significance testing and extract more insight from new findings. Using standard summary statistics, AnCred assesses the credibility of significant and non-significant findings on the basis of their evidential weight, and in the context of existing knowledge. The outcome is expressed in quantitative terms of direct relevance to the substantive research question, providing greater protection against misinterpretation. Worked examples are given to illustrate how AnCred extracts additional insight from the outcome of typical research study designs. Its ability to cast light on the use of p-values, the interpretation of non-significant findings and the so-called ‘replication crisis’ is also discussed

The incidence and clinical burden of respiratory syncytial virus disease identified through hospital outpatient presentations in Kenyan children

There is little information that describe the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) associated disease in the tropical African outpatient setting. Methods We studied a systematic sample of children aged <5 years presenting to a rural district hospital in Kenya with acute respiratory infection (ARI) between May 2002 and April 2004. We collected clinical data and screened nasal wash samples for RSV antigen by immunofluorescence. We used a linked demographic surveillance system to estimate disease incidence. Results Among 2143 children tested, 166 (8%) were RSV positive (6% among children with upper respiratory tract infection and 12% among children with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI). RSV was more likely in LRTI than URTI (p<0.001). 51% of RSV cases were aged 1 year or over. RSV cases represented 3.4% of hospital outpatient presentations. Relative to RSV negative cases, RSV positive cases were more likely to have crackles (RR = 1.63; 95% CI 1.34–1.97), nasal flaring (RR = 2.66; 95% CI 1.40–5.04), in-drawing (RR = 2.24; 95% CI 1.47–3.40), fast breathing for age (RR = 1.34; 95% CI 1.03–1.75) and fever (RR = 1.54; 95% CI 1.33–1.80). The estimated incidence of RSV-ARI and RSV-LRTI, per 100,000 child years, among those aged <5 years was 767 and 283, respectively. Conclusion The burden of childhood RSV-associated URTI and LRTI presenting to outpatients in this setting is considerable. The clinical features of cases associated with an RSV infection were more severe than cases without an RSV diagnosis

Cancer drug approvals that displaced existing standard-of-care therapies, 2016-2021

Importance Although several cancer drugs receive US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval each month, it is unclear how many of these cancer drugs transform the treatment landscape significantly by tumor group. Specifically, it remains unclear how many of these newly approved cancer drugs displace the existing standard-of-care therapies for their indication vs being added to existing therapies. Objective To examine how many cancer drugs displace the standard-of-care therapies vs being added to existing therapy or filling breaks in systemic treatments in the metastatic setting, adjuvant setting, or maintenance setting. Design, Setting, and Participants Retrospective cross-sectional study using landmark trials leading to FDA approval of cancer drugs between May 1, 2016, and May 31, 2021. The study evaluated all FDA approvals for cancer drugs between May 1, 2016, and May 31, 2021, using the FDA Oncology (Cancer)/Hematologic Malignancies Approval Notifications website. All clinical trials leading to FDA approval of cancer drugs during this period were examined. Main Outcomes and Measures A drug was determined to have displaced the prior standard-of-care therapy by evaluating the comparator arm (or lack thereof) in the clinical trial leading to the drug’s approval and also by reviewing National Comprehensive Cancer Network Guidelines. Cancer drug approvals were categorized as first-line displacing if a drug was approved for use in the first-line setting and displaced the prior standard-of-care drug for an indication, first-line drug alternatives/new if a drug was approved for use in the first-line setting but did not displace the standard of care at the time of approval or was a new drug that was first of its class for an approved indication, add on if a drug was approved in combination with a previously approved therapy for a disease or if a drug was approved for use in the adjuvant or maintenance settings, and later line if a drug was approved for use in the second-, third-, or later-line settings. Results Between May 1, 2016, and May 31, 2021, there were 207 FDA cancer drug approvals in oncology and malignant hematology. Of these 207 approvals, 28 drugs (14%) were first-line displacing therapies. A total of 32 drugs (15%) were first-line drug alternatives/new drugs. A total of 61 drugs (29%) were add-on therapies. Finally, 86 drugs (42%) were approved as later-line therapies. Conclusions and Relevance In this study, most cancer drug approvals between 2016 and 2021 were in the later-line settings as opposed to displacing the current standard-of-care therapy for the approved indication. These later-line drugs may benefit patients with few alternatives but add to the cost of care because competition in the drug markets is a key factor in leading to lower drug prices

An observational prospective study of topical acidified nitrite for killing methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in contaminated wounds

Background Endogenous nitric oxide (NO) kills bacteria and other organisms as part of the innate immune response. When nitrite is exposed to low pH, NO is generated and has been used as an NO delivery system to treat skin infections. We demonstrated eradication of MRSA carriage from wounds using a topical formulation of citric acid (4.5%) and sodium nitrite (3%) creams co-applied for 5 days to 15 wounds in an observational prospective pilot study of 8 patients. Findings Following treatment with topical citric acid and sodium nitrite, 9 of 15 wounds (60%) and 3 of 8 patients (37%) were cleared of infection. MRSA isolates from these patients were all sensitive to acidified nitrite in vitro compared to methicillin-sensitive S. aureus and a reference strain of MRSA. Conclusions Nitric oxide and acidified nitrite offer a novel therapy for control of MRSA in wounds. Wounds that were not cleared of infection may have been re-contaminated or the bioavailability of acidified nitrite impaired by local factors in the tissue

Nanoelectromechanical coupling in fullerene peapods probed via resonant electrical transport experiments

Fullerene peapods, that is carbon nanotubes encapsulating fullerene molecules, can offer enhanced functionality with respect to empty nanotubes. However, the present incomplete understanding of how a nanotube is affected by entrapped fullerenes is an obstacle for peapods to reach their full potential in nanoscale electronic applications. Here, we investigate the effect of C60 fullerenes on electron transport via peapod quantum dots. Compared to empty nanotubes, we find an abnormal temperature dependence of Coulomb blockade oscillations, indicating the presence of a nanoelectromechanical coupling between electronic states of the nanotube and mechanical vibrations of the fullerenes. This provides a method to detect the C60 presence and to probe the interplay between electrical and mechanical excitations in peapods, which thus emerge as a new class of nanoelectromechanical systems.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures. Published in Nature Communications. Free online access to the published version until Sept 30th, 2010, see http://www.nature.com/ncomms/journal/v1/n4/abs/ncomms1034.htm

A genetically encoded reporter of synaptic activity in vivo

To image synaptic activity within neural circuits, we tethered the genetically encoded calcium indicator (GECI) GCaMP2 to synaptic vesicles by fusion to synaptophysin. The resulting reporter, SyGCaMP2, detected the electrical activity of neurons with two advantages over existing cytoplasmic GECIs: it identified the locations of synapses and had a linear response over a wider range of spike frequencies. Simulations and experimental measurements indicated that linearity arises because SyGCaMP2 samples the brief calcium transient passing through the presynaptic compartment close to voltage-sensitive calcium channels rather than changes in bulk calcium concentration. In vivo imaging in zebrafish demonstrated that SyGCaMP2 can assess electrical activity in conventional synapses of spiking neurons in the optic tectum and graded voltage signals transmitted by ribbon synapses of retinal bipolar cells. Localizing a GECI to synaptic terminals provides a strategy for monitoring activity across large groups of neurons at the level of individual synapses

Centre selection for clinical trials and the generalisability of results: a mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: The rationale for centre selection in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) is often unclear but may have important implications for the generalisability of trial results. The aims of this study were to evaluate the factors which currently influence centre selection in RCTs and consider how generalisability considerations inform current and optimal practice. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Mixed methods approach consisting of a systematic review and meta-summary of centre selection criteria reported in RCT protocols funded by the UK National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) initiated between January 2005-January 2012; and an online survey on the topic of current and optimal centre selection, distributed to professionals in the 48 UK Clinical Trials Units and 10 NIHR Research Design Services. The survey design was informed by the systematic review and by two focus groups conducted with trialists at the Birmingham Centre for Clinical Trials. 129 trial protocols were included in the systematic review, with a total target sample size in excess of 317,000 participants. The meta-summary identified 53 unique centre selection criteria. 78 protocols (60%) provided at least one criterion for centre selection, but only 31 (24%) protocols explicitly acknowledged generalisability. This is consistent with the survey findings (n = 70), where less than a third of participants reported generalisability as a key driver of centre selection in current practice. This contrasts with trialists' views on optimal practice, where generalisability in terms of clinical practice, population characteristics and economic results were prime considerations for 60% (n = 42), 57% (n = 40) and 46% (n = 32) of respondents, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Centres are rarely enrolled in RCTs with an explicit view to external validity, although trialists acknowledge that incorporating generalisability in centre selection should ideally be more prominent. There is a need to operationalize 'generalisability' and incorporate it at the design stage of RCTs so that results are readily transferable to 'real world' practice

Programmed inappropriate ICD ventricular defibrillation for cardioversion of persistent atrial fibrillation

In this report we briefly describe a patient with a dual chamber implantable cardioverter defibrillator in the context of severe ischemic cardiomyopathy who developed persistent atrial fibrillation. After appropriate anticoagulation and under mild sedation the patient was successfully cardioverted to sinus rhythm after a programmed ventricular synchronized defibrillation using his defibrillator. Programmed internal cardioversion of persistent atrial fibrillation in patients who have an implantable cardioverter defibillator without atrial defibrillation capabilities could be an effective and safe therapeutic option. Unlike external electrical cardioversion, this strategy does not interfere with the implantable cardioverter defibrillator, is more effective, and obviates the need of general anesthesia. This strategy should be further evaluated in clinical trials

Pair-breaking quantum phase transition in superconducting nanowires

A quantum phase transition (QPT) between distinct ground states of matter is a wide-spread phenomenon in nature, yet there are only a few experimentally accessible systems where the microscopic mechanism of the transition can be tested and understood. These cases are unique and form the experimentally established foundation for our understanding of quantum critical phenomena. Here we report the discovery that a magnetic-field-driven QPT in superconducting nanowires - a prototypical 1d-system - can be fully explained by the critical theory of pair-breaking transitions characterized by a correlation length exponent $\nu \approx 1$ and dynamic critical exponent $z \approx 2$. We find that in the quantum critical regime, the electrical conductivity is in agreement with a theoretically predicted scaling function and, moreover, that the theory quantitatively describes the dependence of conductivity on the critical temperature, field magnitude and orientation, nanowire cross sectional area, and microscopic parameters of the nanowire material. At the critical field, the conductivity follows a $T^{(d-2)/z}$ dependence predicted by phenomenological scaling theories and more recently obtained within a holographic framework. Our work uncovers the microscopic processes governing the transition: The pair-breaking effect of the magnetic field on interacting Cooper pairs overdamped by their coupling to electronic degrees of freedom. It also reveals the universal character of continuous quantum phase transitions.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figure