Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Quercus suber in the conditions of North Africa

Climate change, which is expected to continue in the future, is increasingly becoming a major concern affecting many components of the biodiversity and human society. Understanding its impacts on forest ecosystems is essential for undertaking long-term management and conservation strategies. This study was focused on modeling the potential distribution of Quercus suber in the Maamora Forest, the world’s largest lowland cork oak forest, under actual and future climate conditions and identifying the environmental factors associated with this distribution. Maximum Entropy approach was used to train a Species Distribution Model and future predictions were based on different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway RCPs). The results showed that the trained model was highly reliable and reflected the actual and future distributions of Maamora’s cork oak. It showed that the precipitation of the coldest and wettest quarter and the annual temperature range are the environmental factors that provide the most useful information for Q. suber distribution in the study area. The computed results of cork oak’s habitat suitability showed that predicted suitable areas are site-specific and seem to be highly dependent on climate change. The predicted changes are significant and expected to vary (decline of habitat suitability) in the future under the different emissions pathways. It indicates that climate change may reduce the suitable area for Q. suber under all the climate scenarios and the severity of projected impacts is closely linked to the magnitude of the climate change. The percent variation in habitat suitability indicates negative values for all the scenarios, ranging –23% to –100%. These regressions are projected to be more important under pessimist scenario RCP8.5. Given these results, we recommend including the future climate scenarios in the existing management strategies and highlight the usefulness of the produced predictive suitability maps under actual and future climate for the protection of this sensitive forest and its key species – cork oak, as well as for other forest species

Spatio-temporal analysis of North African forest cover dynamics using time series of vegetation indices – case of the Maamora forest (Morocco)

North African forest areas play several roles and functions and represent a heritage of great economic and ecological importance. As a result of global changes, that act independently or synergistically, these areas are currently undergoing a pronounced degradation and their productivity is decreasing due to several factors. This work aims to characterize spatio-temporal dynamics of vegetation within the Maamora forest. This forest is considered as the most extensive cork oak woodland in the world and is divided, from west to east, into five cantons A, B, C, D and E. The data, extracted between 2000–2021 from MODIS NDVI/EVI images of 250 m, were analyzed using statistical parameters with the Pettitt homogeneity and the Mann-Kendall trend tests, with their seasonal and spatial components, in order to better consider the vegetation distribution of this forest. Results show a clear temporal and spatial (inter-canton) variability of vegetation intensity, unrelated to the continental gradient. In fact, recorded mean values in cantons C and E are significantly higher than those of cantons B and D respectively. This is confirmed by both regressive and progressive trends, which were identified respectively from the months of March 2012 and October 2008, in the data series of cantons B and E successively. Spatially, the regressive dynamic remains generalized and affects more than 26.7% of the Maamora’s total area with extreme rates (46.1% and 14.0%) recorded respectively by the two aforementioned cantons. Similarly, all the stand types in canton B show the highest regressive rates, especially the cork oak regeneration strata (75.4%) and the bare lands (86.1%), which may explain the positive tendencies identified by the related series during the fall season. However, the cantons C and E record the lowest rates, respectively, for natural stands of cork oak and artificial plantations. These results highlight also the absence of a causal relationship between the contrasting vegetation dynamics of the Maamora and the climatic conditions, expressed here by the continental gradient. However, they do highlight the effects of other factors, particularly those of a technical nature

Entanglement between Demand and Supply in Markets with Bandwagon Goods

Whenever customers' choices (e.g. to buy or not a given good) depend on others choices (cases coined 'positive externalities' or 'bandwagon effect' in the economic literature), the demand may be multiply valued: for a same posted price, there is either a small number of buyers, or a large one -- in which case one says that the customers coordinate. This leads to a dilemma for the seller: should he sell at a high price, targeting a small number of buyers, or at low price targeting a large number of buyers? In this paper we show that the interaction between demand and supply is even more complex than expected, leading to what we call the curse of coordination: the pricing strategy for the seller which aimed at maximizing his profit corresponds to posting a price which, not only assumes that the customers will coordinate, but also lies very near the critical price value at which such high demand no more exists. This is obtained by the detailed mathematical analysis of a particular model formally related to the Random Field Ising Model and to a model introduced in social sciences by T C Schelling in the 70's.Comment: Updated version, accepted for publication, Journal of Statistical Physics, online Dec 201

How many educated workers for your economy? European targets, optimal public spending, and labor market impact

This paper studies optimal taxation schemes for education in a search- matching model where the labor market is divided between a high-skill and a low-skill sector. Two public policy targets - maximizing the total employment level and optimizing the social surplus - are studied according to three different public taxation strategies. We calibrate our model using evidence from thirteen European countries, and compare our results with the target from the Europe 2020 Agenda for achievement in higher education. We show that, with current labor market char- acteristics, the target set by governments seems compatible with the social surplus maximization objective for some countries, while being too high for other countries. For all countries, maximizing employment would imply higher educational spending than that required for the social surplus to reach its maximum.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Entwicklung und Ungleichheit von Fähigkeiten : Anmerkungen aus ökonomischer Sicht

Nirgends sonst im ökonomischen Handeln fallen Kosten und Nutzen im Zeitablauf und aufgeteilt nach Investoren und Nutznießern so eklatant auseinander wie bei Bildungsinvestitionen. In dem vorliegenden Beitrag wird argumentiert, dass in der sozialen Realität die Bildungsungleichheit im Vorschulalter eine der wichtigsten Ursachen für die Ungleichheit von Fähigkeiten und Kompetenzen auch im Schulalter und im Erwerbsleben ist. Für benachteiligte Kinder scheint somit die Bildungsungleichheit vor dem Schulalter bei uns, ebenso wie in anderen Ländern mit hohen Bildungsausgaben und hoher Wirtschaftskraft ihren schicksalhaften Charakter noch keineswegs verloren zu haben. Um dies zu ändern, bleibt es eine vordringliche Aufgabe auch der Bildungspolitik, den Zugang zu einer angemessenen emotionalen Fürsorge von Anfang an weiter zu verbessern. Darüber hinaus ist es notwendig, den betroffenen Kindern bis ins Jugendalter altersgemäß und individuell zur Seite zu stehen

Heat Conduction and Entropy Production in Anharmonic Crystals with Self-Consistent Stochastic Reservoirs

We investigate a class of anharmonic crystals in $d$ dimensions, $d\ge 1$, coupled to both external and internal heat baths of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type. The external heat baths, applied at the boundaries in the 1-direction, are at specified, unequal, temperatures \tlb and \trb. The temperatures of the internal baths are determined in a self-consistent way by the requirement that there be no net energy exchange with the system in the non-equilibrium stationary state (NESS). We prove the existence of such a stationary self-consistent profile of temperatures for a finite system and show it minimizes the entropy production to leading order in (\tlb -\trb). In the NESS the heat conductivity $\kappa$ is defined as the heat flux per unit area divided by the length of the system and (\tlb -\trb). In the limit when the temperatures of the external reservoirs goes to the same temperature $T$, $\kappa(T)$ is given by the Green-Kubo formula, evaluated in an equilibrium system coupled to reservoirs all having the temperature $T$. This $\kappa(T)$ remains bounded as the size of the system goes to infinity. We also show that the corresponding infinite system Green-Kubo formula yields a finite result. Stronger results are obtained under the assumption that the self-consistent profile remains bounded.Comment: to appear in J. Stat. Phy