Flambée des prix alimentaires internationaux : opportunité ou désastre pour les populations les plus pauvres ?

This article suggests a conceptual framework for analyzing the consequences of the recent prices increase on the poorest people in the world. The complexity of mechanisms at work is demonstrated. At the global level, the analysis points out that Sub Saharan Africa exhibits the worst situation but a high diversity exists between nations. Three countries were chosen for an analysis of local markets and households impacts (Cameroon, Mali and Senegal). In Senegal prices transmission on local markets is important and negative impacts on poor households are observed. By contrast domestic prices exhibit very few changes in Mali. Cameroon exhibits an intermediate situation between these two cases. ...French Abstract : Cet article propose et applique un cadre d'analyse pour l'étude des conséquences de la flambée des prix des denrées alimentaires sur les populations pauvres des pays du Sud. Il met en évidence la complexité des mécanismes à l'oeuvre et la diversité des cas. Parmi les grands ensembles régionaux, l'Afrique Sub-saharienne apparaît particulièrement exposée à des impacts négatifs, mais les situations sont contrastées d'une nation à l'autre. Trois pays sont retenus pour une analyse au niveau des marchés locaux et des ménages (Cameroun, Mali, Sénégal). Au Sénégal, la contagion aux prix alimentaires intérieurs est la plus importante, elle a des conséquences négatives sur les ménages, en particulier les plus pauvres. Au Mali par contre, on note très peu d'impacts sur les marchés domestiques. Le Cameroun illustre une situation intermédiaire entre ces deux extrêmes.FOOD PRICES INCREASE; PRICES TRANSMISSION; FOOD TRADE; POVERTY; FLAMBEE DES PRIX ALIMENTAIRES; CONNEXION DES MARCHES NATIONAUX ET INTERNATIONAUX; COMMERCE ALIMENTAIRE; PAUVRETE

Climate change and cereal production evolution trend in the Sahel: case study in Mali from 1951 to 2010

Open Access Journal; Published online: 9 April 2019Mali is a Sahelian country with a large climatic contrast from North to South. The current climatic and production evolutionary study is focused on the six major agro-climatic cereal production zones ranging from Kayes (400 mm) to Sikasso (>1000 mm) of rainfalls. Climatic data are rainfall records, daily maximum and minimum temperatures from 60 years of the six major synoptic weather observation stations. Data were analyzed on comparing average decades of the two normal periods of 30 years (1951-1980) and (1981-2010). Annual agronomic production data for millet, sorghum, maize and rice are derived from Mali's agricultural statistics base from 1984 to 2013. Main climatic results analyses indicate that climate change resulted in a decrease of 100 mm isohyets between the 2 periods of 30 years. The structure of the rainy season was little changed between these two periods since the average start of the season was delayed by 6 days and the average end date of the season became earlier by 4 days. Maximum temperatures increased significantly from + 0.44°C to + 1.53°C and minimum temperatures significantly increased from + 1.05°C to + 1.93°C in varying way depending on the sites. Statistics of major agronomic food crop production in Mali from 1984 to 2013 indicate an average increase of 985 to 4492 thousand tones, or 22% increase per year. There is a positive upward in saw tooth trend in Malian production from 1984 to 2013. This positive trend is the result of a combination of agricultural extension, agronomic research application and the management of small farmer holder in the Sahel. This evolution needs better study for drawing necessary right conclusions