High risk of unprecedented UK rainfall in the current climate

This is the final version. Available on open access from Springer Nature via the DOI in this recordIn winter 2013/14 a succession of storms hit the UK leading to record rainfall and flooding in many regions including south east England. In the Thames river valley there was widespread flooding, with clean-up costs of over £1 billion. There was no observational precedent for this level of rainfall. Here we present analysis of a large ensemble of high-resolution initialised climate simulations to show that this event could have been anticipated, and that in the current climate there remains a high chance of exceeding the observed record monthly rainfall totals in many regions of the UK. In south east England there is a 7% chance of exceeding the current rainfall record in at least one month in any given winter. Expanding our analysis to some other regions of England and Wales the risk increases to a 34% chance of breaking a regional record somewhere each winter.A succession of storms during the 2013-2014 winter led to record flooding in the UK. Here, the authors use high-resolution climate simulations to show that this event could have been anticipated and that there remains a high chance of exceeding observed record monthly rainfall totals in many parts of the UK.Development of the Met Office Hadley Centre’s decadal climate predictions, the innovative scientific research that contributed to the NFRR, has been resourced through the MOHCCP, the NCIC, the Newton Fund, and SPECS. Development of the methodology was supported by the Newton Fund

Early Trends in Cystatin C and Outcomes in Patients with Cirrhosis and Acute Kidney Injury

Background. Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common and severe complication in patients with cirrhosis. Progression of AKI to a higher stage associates with increased mortality. Intervening early in AKI when renal dysfunction is worsening may improve outcomes. However, serum creatinine correlates poorly with glomerular filtration in patients with cirrhosis and fluctuations may mask progression early in the course of AKI. Cystatin C, a low-molecular-weight cysteine proteinase inhibitor, is a potentially more accurate marker of glomerular filtration. Methods. We conducted a prospective multicenter study in patients with cirrhosis comparing changes in cystatin and creatinine immediately following onset of AKI as predictors of a composite endpoint of dialysis or mortality. Results. Of 106 patients, 37 (35%) met the endpoint. Cystatin demonstrated less variability between samples than creatinine. Patients were stratified into four groups reflecting changes in creatinine and cystatin: both unchanged or decreased 38 (36%) (Scr−/CysC−); only cystatin increased 25 (24%) (Scr−/CysC+); only creatinine increased 15 (14%) (Scr+/CysC−); and both increased 28 (26%) (Scr+/CysC+). With Scr−/CysC− as the reference, in both instances where cystatin rose, Scr−/CysC+ and Scr+/CysC+, the primary outcome was significantly more frequent in multivariate analysis, and , respectively. However, when only creatinine rose, outcomes were similar to the reference group. Conclusions. Changes in cystatin levels early in AKI are more closely associated with eventual dialysis or mortality than creatinine and may allow more rapid identification of patients at risk for adverse outcomes

Turbulent flow at 190 m height above London during 2006-2008: A climatology and the applicability of similarity theory

Flow and turbulence above urban terrain is more complex than above rural terrain, due to the different momentum and heat transfer characteristics that are affected by the presence of buildings (e.g. pressure variations around buildings). The applicability of similarity theory (as developed over rural terrain) is tested using observations of flow from a sonic anemometer located at 190.3 m height in London, U.K. using about 6500 h of data. Turbulence statistics—dimensionless wind speed and temperature, standard deviations and correlation coefficients for momentum and heat transfer—were analysed in three ways. First, turbulence statistics were plotted as a function only of a local stability parameter z/Λ (where Λ is the local Obukhov length and z is the height above ground); the σ_i/u_* values (i = u, v, w) for neutral conditions are 2.3, 1.85 and 1.35 respectively, similar to canonical values. Second, analysis of urban mixed-layer formulations during daytime convective conditions over London was undertaken, showing that atmospheric turbulence at high altitude over large cities might not behave dissimilarly from that over rural terrain. Third, correlation coefficients for heat and momentum were analyzed with respect to local stability. The results give confidence in using the framework of local similarity for turbulence measured over London, and perhaps other cities. However, the following caveats for our data are worth noting: (i) the terrain is reasonably flat, (ii) building heights vary little over a large area, and (iii) the sensor height is above the mean roughness sublayer depth

Haemoglobin mass and running time trial performance after recombinant human erythropoietin administration in trained men

<p>Recombinant human erythropoietin (rHuEpo) increases haemoglobin mass (Hbmass) and maximal oxygen uptake (v˙ O2 max).</p> <p>Purpose: This study defined the time course of changes in Hbmass, v˙ O2 max as well as running time trial performance following 4 weeks of rHuEpo administration to determine whether the laboratory observations would translate into actual improvements in running performance in the field.</p> <p>Methods: 19 trained men received rHuEpo injections of 50 IUNkg21 body mass every two days for 4 weeks. Hbmass was determined weekly using the optimized carbon monoxide rebreathing method until 4 weeks after administration. v˙ O2 max and 3,000 m time trial performance were measured pre, post administration and at the end of the study.</p> <p>Results: Relative to baseline, running performance significantly improved by ,6% after administration (10:3061:07 min:sec vs. 11:0861:15 min:sec, p,0.001) and remained significantly enhanced by ,3% 4 weeks after administration (10:4661:13 min:sec, p,0.001), while v˙ O2 max was also significantly increased post administration (60.765.8 mLNmin21Nkg21 vs. 56.066.2 mLNmin21Nkg21, p,0.001) and remained significantly increased 4 weeks after rHuEpo (58.065.6 mLNmin21Nkg21, p = 0.021). Hbmass was significantly increased at the end of administration compared to baseline (15.261.5 gNkg21 vs. 12.761.2 gNkg21, p,0.001). The rate of decrease in Hbmass toward baseline values post rHuEpo was similar to that of the increase during administration (20.53 gNkg21Nwk21, 95% confidence interval (CI) (20.68, 20.38) vs. 0.54 gNkg21Nwk21, CI (0.46, 0.63)) but Hbmass was still significantly elevated 4 weeks after administration compared to baseline (13.761.1 gNkg21, p<0.001).</p> <p>Conclusion: Running performance was improved following 4 weeks of rHuEpo and remained elevated 4 weeks after administration compared to baseline. These field performance effects coincided with rHuEpo-induced elevated v˙ O2 max and Hbmass.</p&gt

Health services changes: is a run-in period necessary before evaluation in randomised clinical trials?

Background Most randomised clinical trials (RCTs) testing a new health service do not allow a run-in period of consolidation before evaluating the new approach. Consequently, health professionals involved may feel insufficiently familiar or confident, or that new processes or systems that are integral to the service are insufficiently embedded in routine care prior to definitive evaluation in a RCT. This study aimed to determine the optimal run-in period for a new physiotherapy-led telephone assessment and treatment service known as PhysioDirect and whether a run-in was needed prior to evaluating outcomes in an RCT. Methods The PhysioDirect trial assessed whether PhysioDirect was as effective as usual care. Prior to the main trial, a run-in of up to 12 weeks was permitted to facilitate physiotherapists to become confident in delivering the new service. Outcomes collected from the run-in and main trial were length of telephone calls within the PhysioDirect service and patients’ physical function (SF-36v2 questionnaire) and Measure Yourself Medical Outcome Profile v2 collected at baseline and six months. Joinpoint regression determined how long it had taken call times to stabilise. Analysis of covariance determined whether patients’ physical function at six months changed from the run-in to the main trial. Results Mean PhysioDirect call times (minutes) were higher in the run-in (31 (SD: 12.6)) than in the main trial (25 (SD: 11.6)). Each physiotherapist needed to answer 42 (95% CI: 20,56) calls for their mean call time to stabilise at 25 minutes per call; this took a minimum of seven weeks. For patients’ physical function, PhysioDirect was equally clinically effective as usual care during both the run-in (0.17 (95% CI: -0.91,1.24)) and main trial (-0.01 (95% CI: -0.80,0.79)). Conclusions A run-in was not needed in a large trial testing PhysioDirect services in terms of patient outcomes. A learning curve was evident in the process measure of telephone call length. This decreased during the run-in and stabilised prior to commencement of the main trial. Future trials should build in a run-in if it is anticipated that learning would have an effect on patient outcome

Qualitative study of the impact of an authentic electronic portfolio in undergraduate medical education

Background Portfolios are increasingly used in undergraduate and postgraduate medical education. Four medical schools have collaborated with an established NHS electronic portfolio provider to develop and implement an authentic professional electronic portfolio for undergraduate students. We hypothesized that using an authentic portfolio would have significant advantages for students, particularly in familiarizing them with the tool many will continue to use for years after graduation. This paper describes the early evaluation of this undergraduate portfolio at two participating medical schools. Methods To gather data, a questionnaire survey with extensive free text comments was used at School 1, and three focus groups were held at School 2. This paper reports thematic analysis of students’ opinions expressed in the free text comments and focus groups. Results Five main themes, common across both schools were identified. These concerned the purpose, use and acceptability of the portfolio, advantages of and barriers to the use of the portfolio, and the impacts on both learning and professional identity. Conclusions An authentic portfolio mitigated some of the negative aspects of using a portfolio, and had a positive effect on students’ perception of themselves as becoming past of the profession. However, significant barriers to portfolio use remained, including a lack of understanding of the purpose of a portfolio and a perceived damaging effect on feedback

The relationship between organisational characteristics and the effects of clinical guidelines on medical performance in hospitals, a meta-analysis

We are grateful to our colleagues involved in the systematic review of guideline dissemination and implementation strategies across all settings especially Cynthia Fraser, Graeme MacLennan, Craig Ramsay, Paula Whitty, Martin Eccles, Lloyd Matowe, Liz Shirran. The systematic review of guideline dissemination and implementation strategies across all settings was funded by the UK NHS Health Technology Assessment Program. Dr Ruth Thomas is funded by a Wellcome Training Fellowship in Health Services Research. (Grant number GR063790MA). The Health Services Research Unit is funded by the Chief Scientists Office of the Scottish Executive Department of Health. Dr Jeremy Grimshaw holds a Canada Research Chair in Health Knowledge Transfer and Uptake. However the views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily the funders.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Effectiveness of joint mobilisation after cast immobilisation for ankle fracture: a protocol for a randomised controlled trial [ACTRN012605000143628]

BACKGROUND: Passive joint mobilisation is a technique frequently used by physiotherapists to reduce pain, improve joint movement and facilitate a return to activities after injury, but its use after ankle fracture is currently based on limited evidence. The primary aim of this trial is to determine if adding joint mobilisation to a standard exercise programme is effective and cost-effective after cast immobilisation for ankle fracture in adults. METHODS/DESIGN: Ninety participants will be recruited from the physiotherapy departments of three teaching hospitals and randomly allocated to treatment or control groups using a concealed procedure. All participants will perform an exercise programme. Participants in the treatment group will also receive joint mobilisation twice a week for four weeks. Blinded follow-up assessments will be conducted four, 12 and 24 weeks after randomisation. The primary outcome measures will be the Lower Extremity Functional Scale and the Assessment of Quality of Life. Secondary outcomes will include measures of impairments, activity limitation and participation. Data on the use of physiotherapy services and participants' out-of-pocket costs will be collected for the cost-effective and cost-utility analyses. To test the effects of treatment, between-group differences will be examined with analysis of covariance using a regression approach. The primary conclusions will be based on the four-week follow-up data. DISCUSSION: This trial incorporates features known to minimise bias. It uses a pragmatic design to reflect clinical practice and maximise generalisability. Results from this trial will contribute to an evidence-based approach for rehabilitation after ankle fracture