Adjusting Medicare capitation payments using prior hospitalization data

The diagnostic cost group approach to a reimbursement model for health maintenance organizations is presented. Diagnostic information about previous hospitalizations is used to create empirically determined risk groups, using only diagnoses involving little or no discretion in the decision to hospitalize. Diagnostic cost group and other models (including Medicare\u27s current formula and other prior-use models) are tested for their ability to predict future costs, using R2 values and new measures of predictive performance. The diagnostic cost group models perform relatively well with respect to a range of criteria, including administrative feasibility, resistance to provider manipulation, and statistical accuracy

Association of metabolic dysregulation with volumetric brain magnetic resonance imaging and cognitive markers of subclinical brain aging in middle-aged adults: the Framingham Offspring Study.

ObjectiveDiabetic and prediabtic states, including insulin resistance, fasting hyperglycemia, and hyperinsulinemia, are associated with metabolic dysregulation. These components have been individually linked to increased risks of cognitive decline and Alzheimer's disease. We aimed to comprehensively relate all of the components of metabolic dysregulation to cognitive function and brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in middle-aged adults.Research design and methodsFramingham Offspring participants who underwent volumetric MRI and detailed cognitive testing and were free of clinical stroke and dementia during examination 7 (1998-2001) constituted our study sample (n = 2,439; 1,311 women; age 61 ± 9 years). We related diabetes, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), fasting insulin, and glycohemoglobin levels to cross-sectional MRI measures of total cerebral brain volume (TCBV) and hippocampal volume and to verbal and visuospatial memory and executive function. We serially adjusted for age, sex, and education alone (model A), additionally for other vascular risk factors (model B), and finally, with the inclusion of apolipoprotein E-ε4, plasma homocysteine, C-reactive protein, and interleukin-6 (model C).ResultsWe observed an inverse association between all indices of metabolic dysfunction and TCBV in all models (P < 0.030). The observed difference in TCBV between participants with and without diabetes was equivalent to approximately 6 years of chronologic aging. Diabetes and elevated glycohemoglobin, HOMA-IR, and fasting insulin were related to poorer executive function scores (P < 0.038), whereas only HOMA-IR and fasting insulin were inversely related to visuospatial memory (P < 0.007).ConclusionsMetabolic dysregulation, especially insulin resistance, was associated with lower brain volumes and executive function in a large, relatively healthy, middle-aged, community-based cohort

Genetic Correlates of Brain Aging on MRI and Cognitive Test Measures: A Genome-Wide Association and Linkage Analysis in the Framingham Study

BACKGROUND: Brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and cognitive tests can identify heritable endophenotypes associated with an increased risk of developing stroke, dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD). We conducted a genome-wide association (GWA) and linkage analysis exploring the genetic basis of these endophenotypes in a community-based sample. METHODS: A total of 705 stroke- and dementia-free Framingham participants (age 62 +9 yrs, 50% male) who underwent volumetric brain MRI and cognitive testing (1999–2002) were genotyped. We used linear models adjusting for first degree relationships via generalized estimating equations (GEE) and family based association tests (FBAT) in additive models to relate qualifying single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs, 70,987 autosomal on Affymetrix 100K Human Gene Chip with minor allele frequency ≥ 0.10, genotypic call rate ≥ 0.80, and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium p-value ≥ 0.001) to multivariable-adjusted residuals of 9 MRI measures including total cerebral brain (TCBV), lobar, ventricular and white matter hyperintensity (WMH) volumes, and 6 cognitive factors/tests assessing verbal and visuospatial memory, visual scanning and motor speed, reading, abstract reasoning and naming. We determined multipoint identity-by-descent utilizing 10,592 informative SNPs and 613 short tandem repeats and used variance component analyses to compute LOD scores. RESULTS: The strongest gene-phenotype association in FBAT analyses was between SORL1 (rs1131497; p = 3.2 × 10-6) and abstract reasoning, and in GEE analyses between CDH4 (rs1970546; p = 3.7 × 10-8) and TCBV. SORL1 plays a role in amyloid precursor protein processing and has been associated with the risk of AD. Among the 50 strongest associations (25 each by GEE and FBAT) were other biologically interesting genes. Polymorphisms within 28 of 163 candidate genes for stroke, AD and memory impairment were associated with the endophenotypes studied at p < 0.001. We confirmed our previously reported linkage of WMH on chromosome 4 and describe linkage of reading performance to a marker on chromosome 18 (GATA11A06), previously linked to dyslexia (LOD scores = 2.2 and 5.1). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that genes associated with clinical neurological disease also have detectable effects on subclinical phenotypes. These hypothesis generating data illustrate the use of an unbiased approach to discover novel pathways that may be involved in brain aging, and could be used to replicate observations made in other studies.National Institutes of Health National Center for Research Resources Shared Instrumentation grant (ISI0RR163736-01A1); National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Framingham Heart Study (N01-HC-25195); National Institute of Aging (5R01-AG08122, 5R01-AG16495); National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (5R01-NS17950

New Norms for a New Generation: Cognitive Performance in the Framingham Offspring Cohort

A previous publication presented normative data on neuropsychological tests stratified by age, gender, and education based on the Original Cohort of the Framingham Heart Study. Many contemporary investigations include subject samples with higher levels of education, a factor known to affect cognitive performance. Secular change in education prompted the reexamination of norms in the children of the Original Cohort. The study population consisted of 853 men and 988 women from the Offspring Study, free of clinical neurological disease, who underwent a neuropsychological examination, which included tests given to their parents in 1974 to 1976 as well as additional newer tests to provide a more comprehensive battery. The Offspring population overall was more evenly distributed by gender and better educated. Their performance on cognitive tests was superior to that of the Original Cohort. Multivariable analyses revealed that more years of education explained only a part of the cohort differences. These findings suggest that continued surveillance of each generation is necessary to document the impact that unique social and economic variables have on cognitive function. Here, the authors provide updated normative data

Incidence of seizures following initial ischemic stroke in a community-based cohort: The Framingham Heart Study

Purpose We examined the incidence of seizures following ischemic stroke in a community-based sample. Methods All subjects with incident ischemic strokes in the Framingham Original and Offspring cohorts between 1982 and 2003 were identified and followed for up to 20 years to determine incidence of seizures. Seizure-type was based on the 2010 International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE) classification. Disability was stratified into mild/none, moderate and severe, based on post-stroke neurological deficit documentation according to the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) protocol and functional status was determined using the Barthel Index. Results An initial ischemic stroke occurred in 469 subjects in the cohort and seizures occurred in 25 (5.3%) of these subjects. Seizure incidence was similar in both large artery atherosclerosis (LAA) (6.8%) and cardio-embolic (CE) (6.2%) strokes. No seizures occurred following lacunar strokes. The predominant seizure type was focal seizure with or without evolution to bilateral convulsive seizure. One third of participants had seizures within the first 24 h from stroke onset and half of all seizures occurred within the first 30 days. On multivariate analysis, moderate and severe disability following stroke was associated with increased risk of incident seizure. Conclusions Seizures occurred in approximately 5% of subjects after an ischemic stroke. One third of these seizures occurred in the first 24 h after stroke and none followed lacunar strokes. Focal seizures with or without evolution in bilateral convulsive seizures were the most common seizure type. Moderate and severe disability was predictive of incident seizures

Association of Metabolic Dysregulation With Volumetric Brain Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Cognitive Markers of Subclinical Brain Aging in Middle-Aged Adults

Objective: Diabetic and prediabtic states, including insulin resistance, fasting hyperglycemia, and hyperinsulinemia, are associated with metabolic dysregulation. These components have been individually linked to increased risks of cognitive decline and Alzheimer’s disease. We aimed to comprehensively relate all of the components of metabolic dysregulation to cognitive function and brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in middle-aged adults. Research Design and Methods: Framingham Offspring participants who underwent volumetric MRI and detailed cognitive testing and were free of clinical stroke and dementia during examination 7 (1998–2001) constituted our study sample (n = 2,439; 1,311 women; age 61 ± 9 years). We related diabetes, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), fasting insulin, and glycohemoglobin levels to cross-sectional MRI measures of total cerebral brain volume (TCBV) and hippocampal volume and to verbal and visuospatial memory and executive function. We serially adjusted for age, sex, and education alone (model A), additionally for other vascular risk factors (model B), and finally, with the inclusion of apolipoprotein E-ε4, plasma homocysteine, C-reactive protein, and interleukin-6 (model C). Results: We observed an inverse association between all indices of metabolic dysfunction and TCBV in all models (P < 0.030). The observed difference in TCBV between participants with and without diabetes was equivalent to approximately 6 years of chronologic aging. Diabetes and elevated glycohemoglobin, HOMA-IR, and fasting insulin were related to poorer executive function scores (P < 0.038), whereas only HOMA-IR and fasting insulin were inversely related to visuospatial memory (P < 0.007). Conclusions: Metabolic dysregulation, especially insulin resistance, was associated with lower brain volumes and executive function in a large, relatively healthy, middle-aged, community-based cohort

Inverse association between cancer and Alzheimer’s disease: results from the Framingham Heart Study

Objectives: To relate cancer since entry into the Framingham Heart Study with the risk of incident Alzheimer’s disease and to estimate the risk of incident cancer among participants with and without Alzheimer’s disease. Design: Community based prospective cohort study; nested age and sex matched case-control study. Setting: Framingham Heart Study, USA. Participants: 1278 participants with and without a history of cancer who were aged 65 or more and free of dementia at baseline (1986-90). Main outcome measures Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the risks of Alzheimer’s disease and cancer. Results: Over a mean follow-up of 10 years, 221 cases of probable Alzheimer’s disease were diagnosed. Cancer survivors had a lower risk of probable Alzheimer’s disease (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.47 to 0.97), adjusted for age, sex, and smoking. The risk was lower among survivors of smoking related cancers (0.26, 0.08 to 0.82) than among survivors of non-smoking related cancers (0.82, 0.57 to 1.19). In contrast with their decreased risk of Alzheimer’s disease, survivors of smoking related cancer had a substantially increased risk of stroke (2.18, 1.29 to 3.68). In the nested case-control analysis, participants with probable Alzheimer’s disease had a lower risk of subsequent cancer (0.39, 0.26 to 0.58) than reference participants, as did participants with any Alzheimer’s disease (0.38) and any dementia (0.44). Conclusions: Cancer survivors had a lower risk of Alzheimer’s disease than those without cancer, and patients with Alzheimer’s disease had a lower risk of incident cancer. The risk of Alzheimer’s disease was lowest in survivors of smoking related cancers, and was not primarily explained by survival bias. This pattern for cancer is similar to that seen in Parkinson’s disease and suggests an inverse association between cancer and neurodegeneration

Type 2 Diabetes as a Risk Factor for Dementia in Women Compared With Men: A Pooled Analysis of 2.3 Million People Comprising More Than 100,000 Cases of Dementia

Objective: Type 2 diabetes confers a greater excess risk of cardiovascular disease in women than in men. Diabetes is also a risk factor for dementia, but whether the association is similar in women and men remains unknown. We performed a meta-analysis of unpublished data to estimate the sex-specific relationship between women and men with diabetes with incident dementia. Research design and methods: A systematic search identified studies published prior to November 2014 that had reported on the prospective association between diabetes and dementia. Study authors contributed unpublished sex-specific relative risks (RRs) and 95% CIs on the association between diabetes and all dementia and its subtypes. Sex-specific RRs and the women-to-men ratio of RRs (RRRs) were pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. Results: Study-level data from 14 studies, 2,310,330 individuals, and 102,174 dementia case patients were included. In multiple-adjusted analyses, diabetes was associated with a 60% increased risk of any dementia in both sexes (women: pooled RR 1.62 [95% CI 1.45-1.80]; men: pooled RR 1.58 [95% CI 1.38-1.81]). The diabetes-associated RRs for vascular dementia were 2.34 (95% CI 1.86-2.94) in women and 1.73 (95% CI 1.61-1.85) in men, and for nonvascular dementia, the RRs were 1.53 (95% CI 1.35-1.73) in women and 1.49 (95% CI 1.31-1.69) in men. Overall, women with diabetes had a 19% greater risk for the development of vascular dementia than men (multiple-adjusted RRR 1.19 [95% CI 1.08-1.30]; P \u3c 0.001). Conclusions: Individuals with type 2 diabetes are at ∼60% greater risk for the development of dementia compared with those without diabetes. For vascular dementia, but not for nonvascular dementia, the additional risk is greater in women

Circulating brain‐derived neurotrophic factor concentrations and the risk of cardiovascular disease in the community

BACKGROUND: Brain‐derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is a pleiotropic peptide involved in maintaining endothelial integrity. It is unknown if circulating BDNF levels are associated with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: We prospectively investigated the association of circulating BDNF levels with cardiovascular events and mortality in 3687 participants (mean age 65 years, 2068 women) from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS). Using a common nonsynonomous single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the BDNF gene (rs6265), we then performed a Mendelian randomization experiment in the CARDIoGRAM (Coronary ARtery DIsease Genome‐Wide Replication And Meta‐Analysis) consortium (>22 000 coronary artery disease [CAD] cases, >60 000 controls) to investigate whether SNP rs6265 was associated with CAD in CARDIoGRAM and, if so, whether the effect estimate differed from that predicted based on FHS data. On follow‐up (median 8.9 years), 467 individuals (261 women) in FHS experienced a CVD event, and 835 (430 women) died. In multivariable‐adjusted Cox regression, serum BDNF was associated inversely with CVD risk (hazard ratio [HR] per 1‐SD increase 0.88, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.97, P=0.01) and with mortality (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.93, P=0.0002). SNP rs6265 was associated with BDNF concentrations (0.772 ng/mL increase per minor allele copy) in FHS. In CARDIoGRAM, SNP rs6265 was associated with CAD (odds ratio 0.957, 95% CI 0.923 to 0.992), a magnitude consistent with the predicted effect (HR per minor allele copy 0.99, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.0; P=0.06 for difference between predicted and observed effect). CONCLUSION: Higher serum BDNF is associated with a decreased risk of CVD and mortality. Mendelian randomization suggests a causal protective role of BDNF in the pathogenesis of CVD