Determining utility values related to malaria and malaria chemoprophylaxis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chemoprophylaxis for travellers' malaria is problematic. Decision modeling may help determine optimal prevention strategies for travellers' malaria. Such models can fully assess effect of drug use and disease on quality of life, and help travellers make informed values based decisions. Such models require utility values reflecting societal preferences over different health states of relevance. To date, there are no published utility values relating to clinical malaria or chemoprophylaxis adverse events.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Utility estimates for health states related to falciparum malaria, sequelae and drug-related adverse events were obtained using a self-administered visual analogue scale in 20 individuals. Utility values for health states related to clinical malaria were obtained from a survey of 11 malaria experts questioned about length of hospital stay or equivalent disability with simple and severe travellers' malaria.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The general public (potential travellers), were more tolerant of taking prophylaxis if associated with no or mild AEs and least tolerant of mild sequelae from malaria and severe drug related events. The rating value reported for taking no prophylaxis was quite variable. Tropical medicine specialists estimated a mean hospital stay 3.23 days (range 0.5-4.5 days) for simple and 6.36 days (range 4.5 - 7 days) for severe malaria.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study provides a benchmark for important utility value estimates for modeling malaria and drug-related outcomes in non-immune travellers.</p

Cost risk benefit analysis to support chemoprophylaxis policy for travellers to malaria endemic countries

BACKGROUND: In a number of malaria endemic regions, tourists and travellers face a declining risk of travel associated malaria, in part due to successful malaria control. Many millions of visitors to these regions are recommended, via national and international policy, to use chemoprophylaxis which has a well recognized morbidity profile. To evaluate whether current malaria chemo-prophylactic policy for travellers is cost effective when adjusted for endemic transmission risk and duration of exposure. a framework, based on partial cost-benefit analysis was used. METHODS: Using a three component model combining a probability component, a cost component and a malaria risk component, the study estimated health costs avoided through use of chemoprophylaxis and costs of disease prevention (including adverse events and pre-travel advice for visits to five popular high and low malaria endemic regions) and malaria transmission risk using imported malaria cases and numbers of travellers to malarious countries. By calculating the minimal threshold malaria risk below which the economic costs of chemoprophylaxis are greater than the avoided health costs we were able to identify the point at which chemoprophylaxis would be economically rational. RESULTS: The threshold incidence at which malaria chemoprophylaxis policy becomes cost effective for UK travellers is an accumulated risk of 1.13% assuming a given set of cost parameters. The period a travellers need to remain exposed to achieve this accumulated risk varied from 30 to more than 365 days, depending on the regions intensity of malaria transmission. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-benefit analysis identified that chemoprophylaxis use was not a cost-effective policy for travellers to Thailand or the Amazon region of Brazil, but was cost-effective for travel to West Africa and for those staying longer than 45 days in India and Indonesia

Declining incidence of malaria imported into the UK from West Africa

BACKGROUND: Two thirds of all falciparum malaria cases reported in the United Kingdom (UK) are acquired in West Africa (WA). To ensure recommendations and guidelines for malaria prophylaxis in travellers to West Africa correlate to the risk of infection, a study was undertaken to examine recent trends and predict future patterns of imported malaria acquired by UK residents visiting West Africa and West African visitors to the UK between 1993 and 2006. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using passenger numbers and malaria surveillance reports, the data revealed a 2.3-fold increase in travel to West Africa with a five-fold increase in travelers visiting friends and relatives (VFR). Malaria incidence fell through the study period, the greatest decline noted in VFR with a fall from 196 cases/1,000 person-years to 52 cases/1,000 person-years, 9.8% per year p < 0.0001. The risk for travellers from the UK visiting for other reasons declined 2.7 fold, at an annual decrease of 7.0%, with the incidence in West African visitors to the UK falling by 2.3 fold, a rate of 7.9% annually. DISCUSSION: The reduction in incidence among all three groups of travellers may be explained by several factors; changing chemoprophylaxis usage and/or increased travel in urban areas where malaria risk has declined over the past decade, or widespread reduction in malaria transmission in West Africa. CONCLUSION: With the reduction in malaria incidence seen in both visitors to and from West Africa, the most rational explanation for these findings is a fall in malaria transmission in West Africa, which may require a change in chemoprophylaxis policy for UK travelers over the next 5-10 years

Malaria prophylaxis policy for travellers from Europe to the Indian Sub Continent

Analysis of malaria imported into eight European countries from the Indian sub-continent (ISC) (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka) led to a consensus statement on the use of chemoprophylaxis within TropNetEurop. The proportion of cases from the ISC in 2004 ranged from 1.4%–4.6% of total imported cases. Plasmodium falciparum cases reported from the eight countries was only 23 (13% of all cases from the region). Total malaria reports between 1999–2004 fell from 317 to 180. The risk of malaria in UK residents visiting the region was > 1 case per 1,000 years exposed. The group recommended non-selective prescribing of chemoprophylaxis for visitors to India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka should be dropped

Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission

BACKGROUND: Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. RESULTS: The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. CONCLUSIONS: Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions

The Multi-Agent Programming Contest: A r\'esum\'e

The Multi-Agent Programming Contest, MAPC, is an annual event organized since 2005 out of Clausthal University of Technology. Its aim is to investigate the potential of using decentralized, autonomously acting intelligent agents, by providing a complex scenario to be solved in a competitive environment. For this we need suitable benchmarks where agent-based systems can shine. We present previous editions of the contest and also its current scenario and results from its use in the 2019 MAPC with a special focus on its suitability. We conclude with lessons learned over the years.Comment: Submitted to the proceedings of the Multi-Agent Programming Contest 2019, to appear in Springer Lect. Notes Computer Challenges Series https://www.springer.com/series/1652

Costs analysis of the treatment of imported malaria

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To document the status of imported malaria infections and estimate the costs of treating of patients hospitalized with the diagnosis of imported malaria in the Slovak Republic during 2003 to 2008.</p> <p>Case study</p> <p>Calculating and comparing the direct and indirect costs of treatment of patients diagnosed with imported malaria (ICD-10: B50 - B54) who used and not used chemoprophylaxis. The target sample included 19 patients diagnosed with imported malaria from 2003 to 2008, with 11 whose treatment did not include chemoprophylaxis and eight whose treatment did.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean direct cost of malaria treatment for patients without chemoprophylaxis was 1,776.0 EUR, and the mean indirect cost 524.2 EUR. In patients with chemoprophylaxis the mean direct cost was 405.6 EUR, and the mean indirect cost 257.4 EUR.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The analysis confirmed statistically-significant differences between the direct and indirect costs of treatment with and without chemoprophylaxis for patients with imported malaria.</p

Risk, Unexpected Uncertainty, and Estimation Uncertainty: Bayesian Learning in Unstable Settings

Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free) reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter) estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free) reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating

The low and declining risk of malaria in travellers to Latin America: is there still an indication for chemoprophylaxis?

A comparison was made between local malaria transmission and malaria imported by travellers to identify the utility of national and regional annual parasite index (API) in predicting malaria risk and its value in generating recommendations on malaria prophylaxis for travellers