Using Prescribed Fire and Biosolids Applications as Grassland Management Tools: Do Wildlife Respond?

Prescribed burning is a management tool commonly used in forested ecosystems in the southeastern United States, but the influence of this method on grassland vegetation and wildlife in this geographic region is unknown. During 2009–2015, we conducted a study to determine if the application of prescribed burning and/or long-term biosolid applications alter plant communities and/or wildlife use of grassland areas at Marine Corps Air Station Cherry Point, Havelock, North Carolina. We monitored vegetation growth, measured plant community composition, and documented wildlife activity in four study plots for 3 years after the implementation of annual winter prescribed burns. Prescribed burning reduced the amount of litter, increased bare ground during spring, and altered the plant community composition relative to areas that were not burned. Overall, prescribed burning did not alter (F1,803 = 0.37, p = 0.54) bird use of the airfield grasslands, while the long-term application of biosolids resulted in higher (F1,803 = 17.61, p \u3c 0.01) bird use. Few species-specific differences in avian use of prescribed burned and unburned grasslands were found. In contrast, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) use of areas that were burned in winter, as well as the adjacent unburned areas, was drastically reduced. Winter prescribed burning appeared to remove forage plants at the time of year deer would use them the most. Our findings suggest that prescribed burning and biosolid applications, used alone and in combination, might be viable grassland management tools for altering wildlife use of grassland areas, specifically white-tailed deer; however, similar research at additional locations should be conducted

The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: A Bayesian analysis

Background: Accurate measures of the severity of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza (pH1N1) are needed to assess the likely impact of an anticipated resurgence in the autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. Severity has been difficult to measure because jurisdictions with large numbers of deaths and other severe outcomes have had too many cases to assess the total number with confidence. Also, detection of severe cases may be more likely, resulting in overestimation of the severity of an average case. We sought to estimate the probabilities that symptomatic infection would lead to hospitalization, ICU admission, and death by combining data from multiple sources. Methods and Findings: We used complementary data from two US cities: Milwaukee attempted to identify cases of medically attended infection whether or not they required hospitalization, while New York City focused on the identification of hospitalizations, intensive care admission or mechanical ventilation (hereafter, ICU), and deaths. New York data were used to estimate numerators for ICU and death, and two sources of data - medically attended cases in Milwaukee or self-reported influenza-like illness (ILI) in New York - were used to estimate ratios of symptomatic cases to hospitalizations. Combining these data with estimates of the fraction detected for each level of severity, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic patients who died (symptomatic case-fatality ratio, sCFR), required ICU (sCIR), and required hospitalization (sCHR), overall and by age category. Evidence, prior information, and associated uncertainty were analyzed in a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework. Using medically attended cases and estimates of the proportion of symptomatic cases medically attended, we estimated an sCFR of 0.048% (95% credible interval [CI] 0.026%-0.096%), sCIR of 0.239% (0.134%-0.458%), and sCHR of 1.44% (0.83%-2.64%). Using self-reported ILI, we obtained estimates approximately 7-96lower. sCFR and sCIR appear to be highest in persons aged 18 y and older, and lowest in children aged 5-17 y. sCHR appears to be lowest in persons aged 5-17; our data were too sparse to allow us to determine the group in which it was the highest. Conclusions: These estimates suggest that an autumn-winter pandemic wave of pH1N1 with comparable severity per case could lead to a number of deaths in the range from considerably below that associated with seasonal influenza to slightly higher, but with the greatest impact in children aged 0-4 and adults 18-64. These estimates of impact depend on assumptions about total incidence of infection and would be larger if incidence of symptomatic infection were higher or shifted toward adults, if viral virulence increased, or if suboptimal treatment resulted from stress on the health care system; numbers would decrease if the total proportion of the population symptomatically infected were lower than assumed.published_or_final_versio

Estimating Interspecific Economic Risk of Bird Strikes With Aircraft

The International Civil Aviation Organization promotes prioritization of wildlife management on airports, among other safety issues, by emphasizing the risk of wildlife–aircraft collisions (strikes). In its basic form, strike risk comprises a frequency component (i.e., how often strikes occur) and a severity component reflecting the cost of the incident. However, there is no widely accepted formula for estimating strike risk. Our goal was to develop a probabilistic risk metric that is adaptable for airports to use. Our specific objectives were to 1) update species-specific, relative hazard scores (i.e., the likelihood of aircraft damage or effect on flight when strikes occur) using recent U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) wildlife strike data (2010–2015); 2) develop 4 a priori risk models, reflecting species-specific strike data and updated relative hazard scores; 3) test these models against independent data (monetary costs associated with strikes); and 4) apply our best model to strike data from 4 large, FAA-certificated airports to illustrate its application at the local level. Our best-fitting risk model included an independent variable that was an interaction of quadratic transformed relative hazard score and number of wildlife strikes (r2=0.74). Top species in terms of estimated risk nationally were red-tailed hawk (Buteo jamaicensis), Canada goose (Branta canadensis), turkey vulture (Cathartes aura), rock pigeon (Columba livia), and mourning dove (Zenaida macroura). We found substantial overlap among the top 5 riskiest species locally across 3 of 4 airports considered, illustrating the degree of site specific differences that affect risk. Strike risk is dynamic; therefore, future work on risk estimation should allow for model adjustment to reflect ongoing wildlife management actions at airports that could influence future strike risk. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA

Workshop on the design and use of clinical trials with multiple endpoints, with a focus on prevention of RSV

A meeting held in Lisbon, Portugal, in February 2023 focused on critical aspects of clinical trial design for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) preventative therapies. The meeting addressed two primary areas: enhancing the efficiency and success of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for RSV preventative therapies and designing RCTs to better inform post-licensure decision-making. Topics included the selection of primary endpoints, innovative approaches to incorporating multiple endpoints and historical data, and the challenges and benefits of sequential trial designs. The discussion also touched on meta-regression models for obtaining more robust, context-specific estimates of vaccine efficacy. Overall, the meeting underscored the importance of balancing efficiency and robustness in RSV vaccine trial design, while recognizing the need for further discussions involving regulatory and advisory bodies

Under-ascertainment of Respiratory Syncytial Virus infection in adults due to diagnostic testing limitations:A systematic literature review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Most observational population-based studies identify RSV by nasal/nasopharyngeal swab RT-PCR only. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analyses to quantify specimen and diagnostic testing-based under-ascertainment of adult RSV infection. METHODS: EMBASE, PubMed and Web of Science were searched (Jan2000-Dec2021) for studies including adults using/comparing >1 RSV testing approach. We quantified test performance and RSV detection increase associated with using multiple specimen types. RESULTS: Among 8066 references identified, 154 met inclusion. Compared to RT-PCR, other methods were less sensitive: rapid antigen detection (pooled sensitivity, 64%), direct fluorescent antibody (83%), and viral culture (86%). Compared to singleplex PCR, multiplex PCR's sensitivity was lower (93%). Compared to nasal/nasopharyngeal swab RT-PCR alone, adding another specimen type increased detection: sputum RT-PCR, 52%; 4-fold rise in paired serology, 44%; and oropharyngeal swab RT-PCR, 28%. Sensitivity was lower in estimates limited to only adults (for RADT, DFA and Viral culture), and detection rate increases were largely comparable. CONCLUSIONS: RT-PCR, particularly singleplex testing, is the most sensitive RSV diagnostic test in adults. Adding additional specimen types to nasopharyngeal swab RT-PCR testing increased RSV detection. Synergistic effects of using ≥3 specimen types should be assessed, as this approach may improve the accuracy of adult RSV burden estimates

Prevalence of Pneumococcal Serotypes in Community-Acquired Pneumonia among Older Adults in Italy: A Multicenter Cohort Study.

Pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a leading cause of mortality. Following the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in children, a decrease in the burden of the disease was reported. In parallel, an increase in non-vaccine serotypes was also noted. The objective of this study was to assess the current serotype-specific epidemiology of pneumococci among Italian older adults hospitalized for CAP. A prospective study was conducted between 2017 and 2020 in four Italian regions. Subjects aged ≥65 years hospitalized with confirmed CAP were tested for pneumococci using both pneumococcal urinary antigen and serotype-specific urine antigen tests able to identify all 24 serotypes included in the available vaccines. Of the 1155 CAP cases, 13.1% were positive for pneumococci. The most prevalent serotypes were 3 (2.0%), 8 (1.7%), 22F (0.8 %) and 11A (0.7%). These serotypes are all included in the newly licensed PCV20. The serotypes included in PCV13, PCV15 and PCV20 contributed to 3.3%, 4.4% and 7.5% of the CAP cases, respectively. In the context of a low PCV13 coverage among older adults and a high PCV coverage in children, a substantial proportion of CAP is caused by PCV13 serotypes. Higher valency PCV15 and PCV20 may provide additional benefits for the prevention of CAP in vaccinated older adults

Pneumonic Plague Cluster, Uganda, 2004

In a case cluster, pneumonic plague transmission was compatible with respiratory droplet rather than aerosol transmission

Detecting Emerging Diseases in Farm Animals through Clinical Observations

Clinical observations will allow early detection of emerging diseases in animal to enhance response time and capabilities

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection by saliva and nasopharyngeal sampling in frontline healthcare workers: An observational cohort study

Background The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused an unprecedented strain on healthcare systems worldwide, including the United Kingdom National Health Service (NHS). We conducted an observational cohort study of SARS-CoV-2 infection in frontline healthcare workers (HCW) working in an acute NHS Trust during the first wave of the pandemic, to answer emerging questions surrounding SARS-CoV-2 infection, diagnosis, transmission and control. Methods Using self-collected weekly saliva and twice weekly combined oropharyngeal/nasopharyngeal (OP/NP) samples, in addition to self-assessed symptom profiles and isolation behaviours, we retrospectively compared SARS-CoV-2 detection by RT-qPCR of saliva and OP/NP samples. We report the association with contemporaneous symptoms and isolation behaviour. Results Over a 12-week period from 30th March 2020, 40∙0% (n = 34/85, 95% confidence interval 31∙3-51∙8%) HCW had evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection by surveillance OP/NP swab and/or saliva sample. Symptoms were reported by 47∙1% (n = 40) and self-isolation by 25∙9% (n = 22) participants. Only 44.1% (n = 15/34) participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection reported any symptoms within 14 days of a positive result and only 29∙4% (n = 10/34) reported self-isolation periods. Overall agreement between paired saliva and OP/NP swabs was 93∙4% (n = 211/226 pairs) but rates of positive concordance were low. In paired samples with at least one positive result, 35∙0% (n = 7/20) were positive exclusively by OP/NP swab, 40∙0% (n = 8/20) exclusively by saliva and in only 25∙0% (n = 5/20) were the OP/NP and saliva result both positive. Conclusions HCW are a potential source of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in hospitals and symptom screening will identify the minority of infections. Without routine asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 screening, it is likely that HCW with SARS-CoV-2 infection would continue to attend work. Saliva, in addition to OP/NP swab testing, facilitated ascertainment of symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. Combined saliva and OP/NP swab sampling would improve detection of SARS-CoV-2 for surveillance and is recommended for a high sensitivity strategy

Modeling emergency department visit patterns for infectious disease complaints: results and application to disease surveillance

BACKGROUND: Concern over bio-terrorism has led to recognition that traditional public health surveillance for specific conditions is unlikely to provide timely indication of some disease outbreaks, either naturally occurring or induced by a bioweapon. In non-traditional surveillance, the use of health care resources are monitored in "near real" time for the first signs of an outbreak, such as increases in emergency department (ED) visits for respiratory, gastrointestinal or neurological chief complaints (CC). METHODS: We collected ED CCs from 2/1/94 – 5/31/02 as a training set. A first-order model was developed for each of seven CC categories by accounting for long-term, day-of-week, and seasonal effects. We assessed predictive performance on subsequent data from 6/1/02 – 5/31/03, compared CC counts to predictions and confidence limits, and identified anomalies (simulated and real). RESULTS: Each CC category exhibited significant day-of-week differences. For most categories, counts peaked on Monday. There were seasonal cycles in both respiratory and undifferentiated infection complaints and the season-to-season variability in peak date was summarized using a hierarchical model. For example, the average peak date for respiratory complaints was January 22, with a season-to-season standard deviation of 12 days. This season-to-season variation makes it challenging to predict respiratory CCs so we focused our effort and discussion on prediction performance for this difficult category. Total ED visits increased over the study period by 4%, but respiratory complaints decreased by roughly 20%, illustrating that long-term averages in the data set need not reflect future behavior in data subsets. CONCLUSION: We found that ED CCs provided timely indicators for outbreaks. Our approach led to successful identification of a respiratory outbreak one-to-two weeks in advance of reports from the state-wide sentinel flu surveillance and of a reported increase in positive laboratory test results